Europe yes or no?
Déjà vu (again)
Michael Marsh
Introduction
• What do we know about referendum voting?
–
–
–
–
It’s the government, stupid
It’s party loyaties
It’s the issues, (but what issues?)
What do people now about the referendum anyway? When it doubt use proxies.
• How can we know?
– Cross sections, post ref surveys: problems of recall on key variables, problems of
rationalisation, problems of establishing causal sequences
– Panels, better equipped to deal with sequences of change, although concerns over
effects of being studied
– Rolling cross sections, some panel advantages without some of the disadvantages
• Data here: cross section surveys, but done immediately after each referendum; questions
about issues and perceptions of treaty and analyse links to vote
2
What changed 2008 to 2009
• Opinions on underlying issues, on trust, on EU, on
consequences??
– To some degree more favourable - on neutrality, trust in
party and perceptions of consequences - but not entirely
so, notably the unpopularity of the government; more
information too
• The importance of such things for the voter’s decision?
– Helpful changes re EU + and govt, weaker links to views on
neutrality, stronger link to economic future
• New circumstances?
• Was 2009 a more rational, better informed decision?
3
Who changed their mind?
4
2008 voters in 2009
2008 behaviour measured by recall; 2009 surveys pre- and post Lisbon2 vote5
Stable /Unstable No 08-09 by age
6
Stable /Unstable NO by Gender
7
Stable /Unstable NO by Occupation
8
Stable /Unstable NO by Party
9
Support for Integration and Change
As regards the European Union in general, which of the following comes closest to your view:
“Ireland should do all it can to unite fully with the European Union” OR
“Ireland should do all it can to protect its independence from the European Union”
10
Changing perceptions of the Treaty
11
Lisbon will erode Neutrality
12
Lisbon will hasten abortion
13
Lisbon will change business tax
14
Lisbon will reduce our influence in EU
15
Lisbon will strengthen the protection
of workers' rights
16
Lisbon will increase unemployment
17
Lose Commissioner/Keep
Commissioner
18
Lisbon will simplify decision
making
19
Fewer “bad” consequences
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0
10
2009
20
30
2008
20
21
The Protest Vote
2008
2009
Rating the government’s performance
22
Lack of trust in party
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
1
2
2008
3
4
2009
Trust own party to do/say right thing on economy, health, EU and social issues
23
Parties and the NO vote
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
FF
FG
Labour
2008
SF
Greens
Ind
2009
24
Europe and the the Vote
2009 and 2008
Less integration
Less integration
More integration
More integration
0
Yes
0.5
No
1
0
Yes
0.5
1
No
As regards the European Union in general, which of the following comes closest to your view:
“Ireland should do all it can to unite fully with the European Union” OR
25
“Ireland should do all it can to protect its independence from the European Union”
Identity and Vote
2008
2009
European/irish
European/irish
irish
irish
0
Yes
50
No
100
0
Yes
50
100
No
26
Opinion on neutrality and vote
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Agree strongly Agree slightly
DK
2008
Disagree
slightly
Disagree
strongly
2009
Ireland should accept limitations on its neutrality so that it can be more fully involved in
27
EU co-operation on foreign and defence policy
Subjective understanding
Not at all
None
Not well
Vaguely aware
To some extent
Some
Quite well
Good
understanding
Very well
0
Jul-09
20
Jun-08
40
60
Apr-08
80
0
Jul-08
20
Jun-08
40
60
80
May-08
28
Knowledge Oct 2009
TRUE
FALSE
DK
30
54
The EU has 15
member states
Germany hold
presidency of EU
38
Every country elects
same number of
people to EP
22
Switzerland a
member of the EU
33
0
32
62
48
50
16
30
16
19
100
29
Knowledge of EU and NO vote
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
1
2
2009
3
4
2008
2008 data taken from Millward Brown survey
30
Knowledge of EU and NO vote
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
1
2
2009
3
4
2008
Knowledge from 2009 survey; vote in 2008 is recalled
31
Effect of knowledge on 2008 NO vote
32
Opinion change June2008-Oct2009
33
Economic benefits of Ratification
2009
2008
DK
DK/refused
Not help recovery
Will not benefit
Help recovery
Will benefit
0%
Yes
50%
No
100%
0
Yes
50
100
No
34
Significant influences on vote
2008
2009
Govt voter
X
Opposition voter
X
Trust
X
Pro neutrality
X
Govt satisfaction
X
Pro integration
X
Irish/European
X
X
Bad consequences
X
X
Help Workers rights
X
X
Commission
X
Simplify decisions
X
Gender
X
Occupation
X
X means p < 0.10
35
Conclusions
• People THOUGHT they knew more, and arguably
had less misleading views on Treaty
• Opinions on some underlying issues, on trust, on
EU, on consequences broadly more favourable
• Some changes too in importance of POSITIVE
things for the voter’s decision and decline of
negative ones – protest vote – in importance
• New circumstances with respect to economy, and
guarantees[?]
36
Some outstanding questions…
• When did people change their mind –
somewhere between June and November
• How widespread was knowledge of guarantees,
or does this not matter
• Were more positive perceptions cause of
consequence of Yes vote
• Did the fact that Yes outspent the No side matter
in altering perceptions
• Did the greater involvement by civil society help
weaken protest vote
37