Corporate Research briefing paper Gross Value Added Gross Value Added In its simplest form, gross value added (GVA) is a key measure of the value of goods and services that an area produces. It measures the contribution to the economy of each individual producer, industry or sector. GVA, and particularly GVA growth, is an important indicator of the overall health of a local economy and is used to monitor the competitiveness and productivity of the economy. It is calculated by summing the incomes generated in the production process. Summary In 2008, Blackburn with Darwen generated £2.2bn to gross value added. A 3% increase on 2007 levels. Growth rates year on year are below national and regional levels. The average annual GVA growth rate between 1995 and 2008 is 3.3% for Blackburn with Darwen compared to 4.5% for the North West and 5.4% nationally. In 1995 44.8% of Blackburn with Darwen’s wealth was generated by the production sector, 18% from distribution, transport and communication and 11.8% from business services and finance. Public administration generated 20%. Overall in 1995, Production contribution to GVA was the largest, with the service sector some way behind. This however changes markedly by 2008. By 2008 production’s contribution to GVA has decreased while that for Public administration, education, health, Distribution, transport & communication and Business services and finance have all increased. GVA per head is lowest for Blackburn with Darwen (£15,824/per head) and is lower than the regional (£17,604) and national average (£21,103). Since 1995 Blackburn with Darwen GVA per head has increased 43.4% from £11.034 in 1995 to £15,824 in 2008 compared to 52% for the North West and 58% nationally. Average growth rates (1996 to 2008) for GVA per head is lower for Blackburn with Darwen compared to local, regional and national levels. The average growth rate of 3.5% for Blackburn with Darwen for the last 10 years however is lower than the national (4.7%) and regional average (4.3%). In 2008, Blackburn with Darwen produced £2.2bn. This constitutes 1.8% of the total North West GVA and 9.4% of the total Lancashire GVA Table 1: Gross Value Added In Blackburn with Darwen Total Annual GVA (£) growth rate 2007 to 2008 Blackburn with Darwen 2,207m 3.0% Lancashire County Council* 19,428m 2.2% Lancashire 23,368m 2.2% North West 121,015m 2.8% United Kingdom 1,295,663 3.5% Average annual GVA growth rate 1995-2008 3.3% 4.3% 4.1% 4.5% 5.4% Source: Local GVA, 2008 Growth rates year on year for Blackburn with Darwen have been consistently lower than the regional and UK average. Most recent figures show the growth rate for 2008 to be 3.0%, lower than the national average of 3.5% but higher than the North West rate of 2.8% and the 2.2% rates for Lancashire and Lancashire County Council (12 district). Figure 1 GVA Growth rates (year-on-year) 1995-2008 8.0% 7.0% UNITED KINGDOM North West 6.0% 6.0% GVA growth rate (%) GVA growth rate (%) 7.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1 1 1 996 997 998 1 2 999 000 2 2 2 2 001 002 003 004 2 2 005 006 2 2 007 008 0.0% 1 996 1 997 1 998 1 999 2 000 2 001 2 002 2 003 2 004 2 005 2 006 2 007 2 008 7.0% 7.0% Blackburn with Darwen 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1 996 1 997 1 998 1 999 2 000 2 001 2 002 2 003 2 004 2 005 2 006 2 007 2 008 GVA growth rate (%) GVA growth rate (%) 6.0% Lancashire 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1 996 1 997 1 998 1 999 2 000 2 001 2 002 2 003 2 004 2 005 2 006 2 007 2 008 Over the 10 years between 1998 and 2008, average annual growth rates for Blackburn with Darwen was 3.3%, Blackpool 2.6%, and Lancashire County Council 4.3%, all are much lower compared to the UK average of 5.4%. Blackburn with Darwen and Blackpool both have lower growth rates than the Lancashire Average of 4.1%. GVA by industry sector GVA can be broken down by broad industry sector. Table 1.1 below shows GVA by broad industry sector for Blackburn with Darwen. Part of the explanation for the variation, in local GVA, lies in the marked differences in the industrial structure of the districts. Factors such as the changing competitiveness of different sectors may affect industries, as may short-term issues such as changes in oil or agricultural prices. Table1.1 : Share of Gross Value Added In Blackburn with Darwen by sector % change 1995 2008 1995-2008 Agriculture, forestry and fishing 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Production 44.8% 24.7% -15.6% Construction 4.8% 5.0% 58.6% Distribution, transport and communication 17.9% 21.3% 81.5% Business services and finance 11.8% 18.1% 133.3% Public administration, education, health and other services 20.4% 30.6% 129.9% All sectors 52.8% Source: Local GVA, 2008 In 1995 44.8% of Blackburn with Darwen’s wealth was generated by the production sector. Conversely, 18% of the area’s wealth came from distribution, transport and communication and 11.8% from business services and finance. Public administration generated 20%. Overall in 1995, Production dominated the economy, with the service sector some way behind. This however changes markedly by 2008. The graph below shows GVA by sector for 1995 and 2008, production’s contribution to GVA has declined while that for public administration, education and health, distribution, transport & communication and business services and finance all show an increasing contribution. 50.0% 45.0% Production, 44.8% 40.0% 35.0% 30.6% 30.0% 25.0% Public admin, education, health & other services, 20.4% 21.3% 20.0% Distribution, transport & 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 24.7% 18.1% communication, 17.9% Business serv ices and finance, 11.8% Construction, 4.8% Agriculture, forestry and fishing, 0.3% 1995 5.0% 0.2% 2008 The graph below shows in more detail the contribution to GVA by public administration, education and health and the production sector in Blackburn with Darwen. It shows that in 1995 production accounted for or contributed 44.8% to GVA, since then its share or contribution as a proportion of total GVA has steadily declined, such that in 2008 it accounted for 24.7% of total GVA, a decrease of 15.6% on 1995 levels. The proportion of GVA accounted for or contributed by public administration, education and health has in the same period grown from 20% of total GVA in 1995 to 31% in 2008. Figure 1.2 Production and Public sector GVA as proportion of total GVA by year Production (1) 50.0% Public administration, education, health and other services (2) GVA Gap (1)-(2) 45.0% 44.8% 43.5% 40.0% 42.1% 40.4% 38.5% 35.0% 36.6% 34.7% 32.6% 30.0% 30.4% 28.7% 25.0% 27.6% 26.8% 25.8% 24.7% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 20.4% 21.0% 21.6% 22.0% 22.7% 23.7% 24.6% 25.9% 27.2% 28.3% 29.5% 29.8% 29.9% 30.6% 0.0% 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 In 2004 production’s contribution to GVA was 28.7% compared to 28.3% for public administration, education and health. By 2005, production’s share had fallen to 27.6% while public administration, education and health’s share increased to 29.5%. In general, before 2004 production’s contribution to GVA was higher than that for public administration, education and health, after 2004 this changed with the contribution to GVA being higher for public administration, education and health than production. Productivity and GVA per head Productivity is defined as the ratio between outputs and inputs in an economy. GVA per head is the most frequently used measure of productivity, it measures the value of goods and services that a local area produces as a proportion of the number of residents who live there. Table 1.2 shows that GVA per head is lowest for Blackburn with Darwen (£15,824/per head) and is lower than the regional and national average. Table 1.2: Gross Value Added per head in Blackburn with Darwen GVA per % change Average annual GVA per head (£) 1995-2008 head growth rate 1995-2008 Blackburn with Darwen 15,824 43.4% 3.5% Lancashire County 16,675 50.5% 4.2% Council* Lancashire 16,170 48.1% 4.0% North West 17,604 51.6% 4.3% United Kingdom 21,103 57.8% 4.7% Source: Local GVA, 2008 Average growth rates for GVA per head is lowest for Blackburn with Darwen compared to local, regional and national levels. Since 1995 Blackburn with Darwen GVA per head has increased 43.4% from £11.034 in 1995 to £15,824 in 2008. Fig 1.3 GVA per head growth rate 6.0% UNITED KINGDOM 6.0% Lancashire North West Blackburn with Darwen 5.0% 5.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1 998 Blackpool 0.0% 1 999 2 000 2 001 2 002 2 003 2 004 2 005 2 006 2 007 2 008 1 998 1 999 2 000 2 001 2 002 2 003 2 004 2 005 2 006 2 007 2 008 Figure 1.3 shows GVA per head growth rates (year on year), from 1996 to 2008, GVA per head growth rates in Blackburn with Darwen lagged behind those of Blackpool, Lancashire and Lancashire County Council 12 district rates. However, since this date average growth rates per head have varied but have been higher than Blackpool but still lag behind those of Lancashire. More recent data, 2007 and 2008 shows that the growth rate in GVA per head was higher in Blackburn with Darwen than any regional or national rates. The average growth rate of 3.5% for Blackburn with Darwen for the last 10 years however is lower than the national (4.7%) and regional average (4.3%). Further information This briefing was prepared by: Saeed Patel Research and Intelligence Officer Corporate Research Joint Intelligence 3rd Floor Old Town Hall saeed.patel@blackburn.gov.uk 01254 58(5106)