Contents
Blackburn with Darwen
Economic Trends
Date completed: November 2011
This report was prepared by
Saeed Patel
Corporate Research
Policy and Communications Department
01254 585106
Saeed.Patel@blackburn.gov.uk
The Economic Indicators research paper is published at intervals
throughout the year and aims to pull together information on the
economy of Blackburn with Darwen. The paper presents an overview of
the current economic situation in Blackburn with Darwen and provides a
reference source of some of the main economic statistics used.
People
Working age population
Structure of the Blackburn with Darwen labour market
Jobs – supply side
Employment rate
Unemployment rate
Claimant count
Self employment rate
Economically inactive
Out of work benefits
Adult qualifications
Jobs – demand side
Notified vacancies
Live unfilled vacancies
Claimants per jobcentre vacancy
Business
Business births and deaths
Personal insolvencies, debt orders and IVAs
Employment by sector
Earnings
Gross weekly earnings
Housing
House price and sales
Mortgage repossessions orders
Landlord repossession orders
Crime
All crime
Burglary
Auto crime
Criminal damage
Violent crime
Health
Page
3
4
5
5
6
6
7
7
8
10
10
10
11
11
12
13
14
14
15
16
16
16
16
16
17
 1,094 job vacancies were advertised at the end of June 2011.
 Vacancy notifications are down by a quarter on the previous
year and 7% on the previous month.
 There were 756 live unfilled vacancies at month end September
2011.
 Claimants per live unfilled vacancy shows there to be 5.9
claimants per vacancy, up from 5.6 the previous month.
Business
Earnings
Housing
 The employment rate in Blackburn with Darwen fell for the 3rd
consecutive period in a row.
 54,200 people were in employment at the end of March 2011,
down from 54,800 in December 2010 and 55,400 in March 2010.
 Unemployment has fallen by 500 over the year. Short term
trends (December 2010 to March 2011) however shows there to
be an increase of 500 from 5,200 to 5,700.
 The self employment rate has been decreasing over time, falling
from a rate of 7.9% in July 2009 to 6.3% in December 2010 and is
at its lowest level of 6% for March 2011.
 The self employment rate is lower than regional and national
levels and shows consecutive decreases over the last three
quarters.
 Inactivity rates have risen by 1.6% points (annually) in Blackburn
with Darwen, but fallen by 0.3% points over the last quarter.
 The claimant rate is higher than the regional and national
levels. The claimant rate has increase by a fifth over the year
and by 2.6% on the previous month.
 The claimant rate of 5.1% is the highest of any Pennine
Lancashire district.
 19,430 people were claiming benefits in Blackburn with Darwen
for month end February 2011, 22.1% of the working age
population, higher than both the regional (17.8%) and national
rates (14.7%).
Crime
Demand side
JOBS
Supply side
Summary
 In 2009 business deaths exceeded births resulting in a net loss of 40
businesses.
 Business births decreased by 1.9% points from 14.4% in 2004 to
12.5% in 2009
 Business deaths increased by 1 percentage point from 12.4% in
2004 to 13.4% in 2009
 Average weekly earnings are lower than regional and national
levels.
 Male resident based earnings increased by 5.2% and that for
females by 6.7%, workplace earnings for Blackburn with Darwen
grew at a slower rate.
 Average house prices have been consistently lower than the North
West and Lancashire average.
 House sales are a quarter down on June 2010 levels
 There have been a total of 55 court actions on mortgage arrears in
Blackburn with Darwen. An decrease of a fifth on the same quarter
of the previous year
 There have been a total of 70 court actions on landlord mortgage
arrears in Blackburn with Darwen. An 18% decrease on the same
quarter of the previous year
 The broad trend for crime has been downward, decreasing from
1,248 in April 2008 to its lowest level of 753 in December 2010.
Since December 2010 all crime has increased and currently stands
at 943.
 Over the last 12 months there are on average of 38.4 burglaries
per month. Burglaries have increased by over a fifth over the year
and by 17% over the month.
 Auto crime – month on month variation, interspersed with
decreases followed by sharp increases. 10.2% annual decrease
 Criminal damage – overall downward trend but increases since
March 2011.
 Violent crime – shows month on month variation, overall shows a
shallow downward trend, with a 15.9% annual increase and 4.1%
monthly decrease.
2
People
Working age population
Population change by age group 2008 to 2030
The current population of Blackburn with Darwen is 140,000, 62.9% of
whom are aged 16-64 (i.e. of working age). The working age population has
over the years increased in Blackburn with Darwen but is still lower than
the regional or national levels.
Blackburn with Darwen
F 2030
90+
M 2030
85-89
F 2008
80-84
M 2008
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
Working age population (16-64)
Blackburn with Darwen
63.5
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
63
%
20-24
15-19
62.5
10-14
62
0-4
5-9
8
6
4
2
0
2
4
6
61.5
Notable points for Blackburn with Darwen are
61
60.5
60
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
59.5

There is a projected increase in the 5-9 and 10-14 age groups with
a reduction in those aged 0-4.

For the 15-64 age groups the projections give shifting patterns
between the groups. With the exception of 55-59 and 60-64 age
group which is projected to increase.

A projected increase in all age groups over 65 can be seen for
2030, this largely results from projected increase in life
expectancy. In the older age groups women outnumber men.
Source: ONS mid year population estimates
By 2030 the population of Blackburn with Darwen is projected to increase
to 145,900, a 4.7% increase on the 2008 population
These long term changes are not immediately critical to the local
economy, what is more relevant is the change in age distribution of the
population which accompanies the changes in total numbers.
One consequence of a declining work force is an increase in dependency
ratio


Dependency ratios for those aged less than 16 are projected to
remain fairly stable over the next 20 years.
The old age dependency ratio is set to increase such that in 2030
the old age dependency ratio in Blackburn with Darwen is 36.2%,
an increase of 10.3% points on the 2010 level.
3
Structure of the Blackburn with Darwen labour market
The diagram below shows the structure of the Blackburn with Darwen labour market. Please note percentages for each category have been calculated as a
percentage of the total working age population (88,000)
Total Population
Working Age (16-64)
88,000 - 100%
Working age
Economically active,
In employment Employees
49,100 (55.8%)
Working age,
Economically active
Working age
Economically inactive
60,800 (69.1%)
27,500 (31.3%)
Working age
Economically active –
Working age
Economically active
In employment
55,100 (62.6%)
- Unemployed*
Working Age
Economically active,
In employment Self-employed
5,400 (6.1%)
Working age
Economically inactive
-
Working age,
Economically inactive
-
Wants a job
6,800 (7.7%)
Does not want a job
20,700 (23.5%)
Working age, Economically inactive,
Wanting a job - reason for not looking
incl those who are:
5,400 (6.1%)
Working age,
Economically active,
In employment –
Family workers and those
on Gov. Training schemes
600 (0.7%)
Long term sick
Looking after family
Seeking work but unavailable
F/T students
Discouraged workers
Other
Retired
Looking after family
Full-time students
Permanently sick



Just over two thirds (60,800) of the working age population (88,000) are economically active.
Of the economically active population of 62.6% are in employment and 6.1% are unemployed.
Of those in employment 55.5% are employees and 6.1% are self – employed.

Of the 88,000 working age population, 27,900 or just under one third (31.3%) are economically inactive, 6,800 of these or 7.7% of the working age
population want a job, a large proportion of the economically inactive population 20,700 or 23.5% of the working age population do not want a job.
4
Jobs – supply side

Key indicators for the local labour market include:






Employment rate
Unemployment rate
JSA claimant figures
Self employment
Economic inactivity rate
Out of work benefits

The employment rate in Blackburn with Darwen for the 12 months
ending March 2011 is 1.1% point lower than the rate achieved for
the 12 months ending March 2010.
There has been a decrease in the employment rate over the last
four quarters from 64.9% in June 2010 to 62.0 in March 2011.
Unemployment rate (ILO)
Local Authority Labour Market Statistics
Statistics regarding labour market employment, unemployment and
inactivity on a local authority basis are estimated using the Annual
Population Survey.
The ILO unemployment rate is the number of ILO unemployed persons as
a percentage of the economically active population aged 16-64. It is a
more encompassing measure of unemployment than the claimant count
and enables international comparison of unemployment rates.
Employment rate
This is the proportion of the working age population (16-64) who are in
employment according to the International Labour Organisation (ILO)
definition.
12.0
Unemployment rate 16-64
Blackburn with Darwen
10.0
Blackburn with Darwen
16-64 Employment Rate
74.0
72.0
%
4.0
64.0
62.0
60.0
0.0
Blackburn with Darwen
North West
Great Britain
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-09
Jun-09
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-06
Sep-06
Dec-05
Mar-06
Jun-05
Sep-05
Dec-04
Mar-05
Mar-10
Blackburn with Darwen
North West
Great Britain
Source: ONS Annual population survey via Nomis
Historically employment rates in Blackburn with Darwen have been
lower than regionally or nationally.
Dec-04
Mar-05
Jun-05
Sep-05
Dec-05
Mar-06
Jun-06
Sep-06
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
2.0
58.0
56.0

6.0
70.0
68.0
66.0
Sep-09
%
8.0
Source: ONS Annual population survey via Nomis
The graph above shows the ILO unemployment rate for Blackburn with
Darwen for the year ending March 2011. As with the employment rate the
unemployment rate has historically been higher than the regional and
national level.
The unemployment rate rose by 1 percentage point from the 12 months
ending December 2010 to 9.6% at the end of March 2011. Compared to the
same period the previous year the unemployment rate fell by 0.4% points.
5
The self employment rate in Blackburn with Darwen has
consistently been below regional and national levels.
Self employment rates in Blackburn with Darwen show a
downward trend since June 2009.
Between June 2009 and March 2011 self-employment levels
have fallen from 7.9% to 6.0%. The regional national and
regional trend show increases of 0.2 and 0.3% points


Blackburn with Darwen claimant count
Rate as a % of 16-64 population
12
5
10
4
8
3
% 6
4
Blackburn with Darwen
North West
Great Britain
2
Mar-11
Jun 10
Sep 10
Dec 10
Mar 10
Sep 06
Dec 05
Mar 06
Jun 06
Sep 05
0
Dec 04
Sep-11
May-11
Jan-11
Sep-10
May-10
May-09
Jan-09
Sep-08
Jan-08
Source: Claimant count, Nomisweb
May-08
Sep-07
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-06
May-06
Jan-06
0
Jan-10
Blackburn with Darwen
North West
Great Britain
1
Self employment rate
Mar 05
Jun 05
2
Sep-09
%
6
Jun 09
The annual change shows 40% MORE female claimants.
Sep 09
Dec 09


Dec 08
Mar 09
The percentage change over the previous month, August 2011,
shows an increase for all groups, with the highest increase
(2.6%) registered by male claimants.
This self employment rate can be used as a measure of the level of
entrepreneurship in a particular area
Jun 08

Self employment rate
Sep 08
The September 2011 claimant rate shows that compared to the same
month of the previous year, claimants increased by a fifth, compared to
June 2011 claimants increased by 2.6%.
Dec 07
Mar 08
The rate equates to a total of 4,454 people claiming JSA in the borough,
this being made up of 3,072 males and 1,382 females. Seven out of ten
claimants are male. The claimant rate of 6.9% for males is higher than the
claimant rate for females (3.2%).
There are currently 1,500 young claimants aged 18-24 in Blackburn with
Darwen (33.7% of all claimants). The claimant rate for 18-24 year olds
historically has been higher than the regional and national average and
shows an annual increase of 28.2%.
 84.7% of claimants aged 18-24 were claiming for six months or
less.
 18-24 year olds claiming for six months or less increased by a
fifth over the year while those claiming for 6-12 months
doubled from 115 to 225, an increase of 96%.
Jun 07
In September 2011, 5.1% of the working population in Blackburn with
Darwen were claiming Job Seekers Allowance (JSA), this is higher than the
North West rate of 4.4% and the national rate of 3.9%.
The majority of claimants (over a half, 53.6%) are aged 25-49; the majority
of claimants 68.4% have been receiving the benefit for 6 months or less.
However 450 or approximately 1 in 10 claim for over 12 months and are
classed as ‘long term unemployed’.
Sep 07
The claimant count measures only those people who are claiming
Jobseeker's Allowance. It is always lower than the Labour Force Survey
(LFS) official measure of unemployment, because some unemployed
people are not entitled to claim benefits, or choose not to do so. The
claimant count comes from the administrative records of Jobcentre Plus.
Dec 06
Mar 07
Claimant Count
Source: ONS Annual population survey via Nomis
6
%
24
Economically Inactive
Those aged 16-64 who are neither in employment nor unemployed. This
includes those who want a job but have not been seeking work in the last
four weeks, those who want a job and are seeking work but not available
to start work, and those who do not want a job.
20
Inactivity rate, 16-64
16
12
8
4
0
Mar-11
Mar-10
Mar-09
Mar-08
Mar-07
Mar-06
Mar-05
Mar-04
Mar-03
Mar-02
Mar-01
Mar-00
Out of work benefit claimants
Out of work benefit rate
34
32
30
28
% 26
24
22
20
18
15,960 of these claim key out of work benefits. The highest claimants are for ESA
or incapacity benefits. 9,660 or 11.0% of the working age population claim this
benefit compared to 8.6% in the North West and 6.6% nationally. ESA or incapacity
benefit claimants have fallen by 410 or 0.3% points since February 2010.
16
Blackburn with Darwen
20
10
Great Britain
1.7
2
2.1
11
Total=17.8
1.2
1.4
1.8
8.6
Total=14.7
1
1.1
1.6
6.6
5
4.4
Source: ONS Annual population survey via Nomis

Total =22.1
%
15
North West
Blackburn with Darwen
North West
Great Britain
Dec-04
Mar-05
Jun-05
Source: DWP benefit claimants –working age client group
25
Blackburn with Darwen
4.1

Inactivity rates have risen by 1.6% points (annually)in
Blackburn with Darwen and by 0.2% points nationally, in
contrast activity rates across the North West fell by 0.2%
points.
Over the last quarter the inactivity rate has fallen by 0.3%
locally , the regional rate has increased slightly while the
national rate remains unchanged
3.7
0
Job seekers
Lone parents
Others on income related benefits
Bereaved
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Working age people in receipt of out of work benefits
N
21,000
20,500
20,000
19,500
19,000
18,500
18,000
17,500
17,000
16,500
16,000
group. Hence, in addition to JSA claimants an additional 830 people are
being assisted into work.
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
DWP statistics show that there were 19,430 people (up by 310) claiming
benefits in Blackburn with Darwen, 22.1% of the working age population,
this is higher than both the regional and national rates of 17.8% and 14.7%
respectively.
Sep-05
Dec-05
Mar-06
Jun-06
Sep-06
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Out of work benefits
ESA and incapacity benefits
Carers
Disabled
Source: DWP benefit claimants –working age client group (Feb 2011)
Of the 2,630 ESA claimants at February 2011, 1,320 were at the assessment
phase, 830 were in the work related activity group and 280 in the support
Economically inactive groups
Two of the three groups classified as inactive have increased their
percentage share over time, inactive students increased 1.9% points from
18.6% to 20.5%, and those classified as temporary sick increased from 2.5%
to 4.3%. Those who were retired decreased by 1.1% points from 13.6% to
12.5%
7
Adult qualifications
Data on educational attainment is available through two key sources, the
2001 census and the Annual Population Survey. The Annual Population
survey data is the most up-to date source.
This indicator concerns adult qualifications; and can affect both employers
and employees, a strong supply of people educated to a high level is
required by employers to grow their businesses. Where a local labour
market can not supply people to meet employer needs it can damage
business productivity. On the other hand a workforce with little or no
qualifications is more at risk of not being in paid work and of receiving low
rates of pay. Furthermore, individuals with no or very low qualifications
have seen their earnings increase less rapidly in comparison to other
groups in the workforce.
A quarter of the working age population in Blackburn with Darwen are
qualified to NVQ level 4 (degree and higher degree level qualification) this
compares poorly with North West (28.7%) and the national average (31.3%).
No qualifications
In 2010 18.1% of the working age population held no recognised
qualifications. This was 12.1% for the North West and 11.3% nationally. In
absolute terms, there are an estimated 15,900 people in Blackburn with
Darwen with no qualification
Not in Employment, Education or Training (NEET)
The number of 16-18 year olds not in employment, education or training in
Blackburn with Darwen varies on a monthly basis, and is also subject to
seasonal variation. Data for September 2010 to September 2011 shows that
on average there were 562 young people aged 16 to 18 classified as NEET,
the percentage of young people who are NEET in Blackburn with Darwen is
8.2% compared to 6.3% regionally.
Those who are NEET have fallen by 38.4% from 711 in August 2011 to 438 in
September 2011 (possibly due to large numbers going back to college). The
annual figures show a 8.2% decrease from September 2010 levels.
2010 Adult working age qualifications
Blackburn with Darwen NEETs
2010-11
100.0
800
70.0
700
60.0
600
50.0
500
40.0
30.0
31.3
28.7
400
300
200
0.0
100
Over time this proportion has been increasing such that between December
2004 and December 2010 the proportion of working age adults qualified to
NVQ level 4+ has increased by 5% points.
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
Jun-11
May-11
Apr-11
Mar-11
Feb-11
Jan-11
Dec-10
Nov-10
Oct-10
Source: ONS Annual population survey via Nomis
0
Sep-10
Great Britain
Aug-10
North West
Jul-10
Blackburn with Darwen
Apr-10
10.0
23.6
51.0
49.6
43.1
20.0
67.3
66.8
59.6
Jun-10
80.0
May-10
90.0
% with NVQ4+
% with NVQ3+
% with NVQ2+
Source: CXL MI Team
8
9
Jobs: Demand side
Notified vacancies
Newly notified vacancies measure the extent to which vacancies are
being created by the local economy or at least notified to Jobcentre Plus.

In September 2011, 1,094 job vacancies were advertised with
Blackburn with Darwen Jobcentre Plus offices.
Vacancy notifications are up 30% on September 2010 levels and
5.7% on the previous month.
Notified job vacancies show an increasing trend over the last
three months.
In September 2011 top four occupations for notified vacancies
were:
o
Skilled trades
25.2%
o
Associate professional and technical
18.5%
o
Process plant and machinery…………………16.9%
o
Elementary occupations
16.5%



Live unfilled vacancies
Unfilled vacancy numbers are indicative of job availability
Live unfilled vacancies in Blackburn with Darwen
2007-2011
2,000
1,750
1,500
1,250
1,000
750
500
250
Sep-11
May-11
Jan-11
Sep-10
May-10
Jan-10
Sep-09
May-09
Jan-09
Sep-08
Jan-08
May-08
2007-2011
2,000
Sep-07
Jobcentre Plus Notified Job Vacanies in Blackburn with Darwen
May-07
Jan-07
0
Source: Job Centre Plus via NOMIS
1,750

1,500
1,250

1,000
750
500
250
Jan-07
Mar-07
May-07
Jul-07
Sep-07
Nov-07
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
0
In September 2011, there were 756 unfilled job centre
vacancies
The number of unfilled vacancies available through
Jobcentre Plus decrease by 2.7% on the previous month.
Claimants per Jobcentre Plus vacancy
Data on the number of claimants per live unfilled vacancy provides a
further, if rough measure of the level of competition for jobs or the
difficulty that people will have getting back into work. In September 2011
there were 5.9 claimants per unfilled vacancy in Blackburn with Darwen,
up from 5.6 in August 2011.
Source: JCP vacancy data via NOMIS
10
Business
Business births and deaths
Births
Deaths
Net gain loss
Blackburn with Darwen
Business births & deaths
700
600
500
400
N
Personal insolvencies, debt orders and Individual Voluntary
Arrangements (IVAs)
Data on personal insolvencies from the ONS show that more people have
been declared insolvent over the past year in Blackburn with Darwen.
Personal insolvencies rose to 388 in 2009, an increase of a third on 2008
levels. Over time debt orders and IVAs have also increased.
There has also been an increase in the number setting up informal
arrangements with creditors – such as debt management plans. IVAs have
increased by nearly a half over the last year from 84 in 2008 to 124 in
2009.
300
200
100
0
Personal Insolvancies and debt orders
-100
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: Business demography (ONS)






Blackburn with Darwen contained more than 4,000 active
units. A quarter of the Pennine Lancashire total.
Over time business births have exceeded business deaths in
Blackburn with Darwen, the exception being in 2009 when
deaths exceeded births resulting in a net loss of 40
businesses.
There was a net loss of 300 businesses in Pennine Lancashire
with the largest losses registered in the Ribble Valley and
Burnley.
Blackburn with Darwen’s share of Pennine Lancashire
business deaths was 13%.
Business births as a percentage of active businesses have
decreased by 1.9% points from 14.4% in 2004 to 12.5% in 2009
Business deaths as a percentage of active businesses have
increased by 1 percentage points from 12.4% in 2004 to 13.4%
in 2009
45
40
35
in Blackburn with Darwen 2000-2009
Personal insolvancies
Bankruptcy orders
IVA's
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Rates per 10,000
Source: Neighbourhood statistics (ONS)
11
Employment by sector
The table below shows the new SIC 2007 codes breakdown of employment
for Blackburn with Darwen. Health and Manufacturing represents the
largest sectors for employment with 18.3% and 17.0%. Between 2008-and
2010 the proportion of total employment accounted for by manufacturing
has fallen from 19.7% to 18.3% to 17.0%, a fall of 1.4% point on average
while that for health has increased by 3% points. between 2008 and 2009
but by 0.6% points between 2009 and 2010 The proportion of jobs
accounted for business administration and support services has fallen from
7.4% to 4.0%, a reduction of 3.5% points over the two years.
Sector
2008
2009
0.7%
2010
0.9%
% point
change
2009-2010
0.2%
Over the year employment levels in nine sectors fell, the largest reduction
being in property, as indicated earlier the share of total employment
accounted for by this sector fell by 0.3% points from 1.2% to 0.9%. The
percentage change over the year saw a reduction of over a quarter in
employment levels from 700 to 500. Business administration and support
services experienced employment levels fall by 15% and public
administration and defence employment shed one in eight jobs.
Total Employment by sector
Manufacturing
19.7%
18.3%
17.0%
-1.3%
Construction
3.5%
3.0%
3.0%
0.0%
Business administration & support services
Motor trades
1.3%
1.5%
1.9%
0.4%
Professional, scientific & technical
Property
4.7%
4.5%
-0.1%
Retail
9.0%
8.8%
9.2%
0.4%
Transport & storage (inc postal)
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
0.0%
Accommodation & food services
Accommodation & food services
3.5%
3.5%
3.8%
0.3%
Transport & storage (inc postal)
Information & communication
3.4%
3.3%
3.5%
0.1%
Retail
Wholesale
1.3%
1.5%
1.6%
0.1%
Property
Professional, scientific &
technical
Business administration & support
services
1.0%
1.2%
0.9%
-0.3%
4.5%
6.0%
6.4%
0.4%
7.4%
4.5%
4.0%
-0.5%
Public administration & defence
5.8%
5.5%
5.0%
-0.5%
Education
9.6%
10.0%
10.4%
0.4%
Health
14.7%
17.7%
18.3%
0.6%
Arts entertainment
5.6%
6.3%
6.3%
-0.1%
100.0%
60,000
57,500
-4.0%
0.0%
2900
Public administration & defence
5.4%
-0.9%
6000
Education
Wholesale
Total
10500
Health
0.6%
Financial & insurance
-5.3%
3600
Arts entertainment
Agriculture mining etc
% change 2009 to 2010
2009
2010
-12.1%
2300
-14.8%
2.8%
3700
500
-28.6%
900
Financial & insurance
0.0%
2000
Information & communication
0.0%
2200
4.8%
2000
-4.8%
5300
0.0%
2600
-7.1%
1100
Motor trades
22.2%
1700
Construction
-5.6%
9800
Manufacturing
500
Agriculture mining etc
0
-10.9%
25.0%
2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000
Source: Business Register & Employment Survey/ABI via NOMIS
Source: Business Register & Employment Survey/ABI via NOMIS
12
Earnings
Percentage change in gross weekly earnings of
Wages and salaries are the major components of household income.
Therefore analysis of the current changes in wages and salaries plays an
important part in understanding changes in total household income.
5.0%
Data from ASHE provides information on earnings at Local Authority level,
the figures shows median gross weekly earnings for all full time resident
employees in Blackburn with Darwen from 2002 to 2010
3.0%
600
2.5%2.4% 2.3%
2009
2010
Blackburn with Darwen
North West
Great Britain
-3.0%
200
Source: Annual Survey of Hours and earnings (ASHE) via NOMIS
Blackburn with Darwen
North West
Great Britain
100
Resident and workplace based earnings:
Median Gross Weekly Earnings by Place of Residence and Place of Work, April 2010
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
0
Source: Annual Survey of Hours and earnings (ASHE) via NOMIS

2008
-2.3%
-2.0%
£ 300

3.2%
1.9% 2.2%
1.0%
-1.0%
400

4.1% 4.3%
2.0%
0.0%
500

4.0%
% change
Gross weekly pay - All full time workers
employees, annual percentage change
Historically average weekly earnings have been lower than
regional and national levels.
Current gross weekly earnings for Blackburn with Darwen in 2010
was 6% lower than the regional level and 12% lower than the
national level
Average weekly earnings in Blackburn with Darwen increased by
2.5% on 2009 levels, a marginally higher increase that the regional
or national rate.
Male resident based earnings increased by 5.2% and that for
females by 6.7%, workplace earnings with Darwen grew at a
slower rate. (See table opposite)
Residence -based
Workplace-based
Weekly % change Weekly % change
pay (£) 2009-2010 pay (£) 2009-2010
% Resident/
Workplace
Full-time males
Part-time males
All males
466.2
124.0
396.9
5.2%
-2.1%
453.1
407.3
2.2%
-0.4%
2.9%
Full-time females
Part-time females
All females
424.8
159.0
282.2
6.7%
11.3%
-0.1%
441.5
333.2
5.3%
4.3%
-15.3%
All full-time
employees
439.9
2.5%
445.0
1.6%
-1.1%
-2.6%
-3.8%
Figures are for all employees on adult rates of pay not affected by absence.
Source ONS: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings
13
Housing market

From January 2002, average house prices in Blackburn with
Darwen increased consistently in line with national trends from
£40,000 to almost £100,000 in June 2008.
The average house price in August 2011 is £74,337 up 0.5% from
the previous month but down by 10.4% from the August 2010 level
of £82,924.
The graphs suggests an inverse relationship between house prices
and sales volume such that at times when house prices were low
sales volume was high the opposite is now true.


Mortgage repossession
It is typical for the number of residential mortgage possession actions to
increase during a recession as unemployment rises and monthly payments
become harder to meet.
Court actions for mortgage possession
3.50
Blackburn with Darwen UA
North West
England and Wales
3.00
2.50
House sales and volumes
120,000
450
Blackburn with Darwen
100,000
1.50
350
300
250
60,000
200
40,000
150
1.00
0.50
0.00
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
80,000
Sales volume
Average price (£)
2.00
400
100
20,000
Average price £
Sales Volume
Aug-11
Aug-09
Aug-07
Aug-05
Aug-03
Aug-01
Aug-99
0
Aug-97
0
Aug-95
2000
Index
Aug-2011
151.3


2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: Ministry of justice

Source: HM Land registry
Month
2001
50
Average
price (£)
74,337
Monthly
change %
0.5%
Annual
change %
-10.4
Sales
volume
-

The quarterly rate 1.30 (per thousand households) for Blackburn
with Darwen is higher than the regional 1.0 and national rate
0.8.
There have been a total of 70 court actions on mortgage arrears
in Blackburn with Darwen. A 17% increase on the same quarter of
the previous year
Average house prices locally have been consistently lower than
the North West and Lancashire averages.
House sales were 25% lower in June 2011 compared with June
2010
14
Landlord repossession
Court actions for mortgage possession - Landlords
4.50
4.00
Blackburn with Darwen UA
North West
England and Wales
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0.00
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: Ministry of justice


There have been a total of 75 court actions on mortgage arrears
in Blackburn with Darwen, a 7.1% increase on the same quarter
of the previous year.
The quarterly court actions figures show Blackburn with
Darwen’s court actions for mortgage possession of 1.39 (per
thousand households) to be on a par with the regional (1.4) and
national trends and national rate (1.44).
15
Recorded crime
Recorded crime is taken from CORA (available via the MADE
database). Cora is a monthly snapshot of data downloaded on the 1st
of the month and isn't refreshed with audited data.
Recorded crime in Blackburn with Darwen
All crime 2008-11
1400

1200
The broad trend for crime has been downward, decreasing
from 1,248 in April 2008 to 753 in December 2010. Since
December 2010 all crime has increased and currently stands
at 943.
There are on average of 38.4 burglaries per month, (over the
last 12 months). Burglaries have increased by over a fifth over
the year and by 17% over the month.
Auto crime – month on month variation, interspersed with
decreases followed by sharp increases, 10.2% annual decrease
Criminal damage – overall downward trend but increases since
March 2011.
Violent crime – shows month on month variation, overall
shows a shallow downward trend, 15.9% annual increase and
4% monthly decrease.
1000
800

600
400

200

Oct-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Apr-11
Feb-11
Dec-10
Oct-10
Aug-10
Jun-10
Apr-10
Feb-10
Dec-09
Oct-09
Aug-09
Jun-09
Apr-09
Feb-09
Dec-08
Oct-08
Aug-08
Jun-08
Apr-08
0

Source: Multi Agency Data Exchange -MADE
Annual change
-10.2%
Monthly change
-16.8%
Average =91.8 per month
Recorded crime in Blackburn with Darwen
Oct-11
Jun-11
Apr-11
Aug-11
Oct-10
Feb-11
Dec-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Apr-10
Oct-09
Feb-10
Dec-09
Jun-09
Apr-09
Aug-09
Oct-08
Feb-09
Dec-08
Jun-08
Oct-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Apr-11
Feb-11
Oct-10
Dec-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Apr-10
Feb-10
Oct-09
Dec-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Apr-09
Feb-09
0
Oct-08
50
0
Dec-08
100
50
Jun-08
150
100
Aug-08
150
Apr-08
Oct-11
Aug-11
Jun-11
Feb-11
Apr-11
Oct-10
Dec-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Apr-10
Dec-09
Feb-10
Oct-09
Aug-09
Jun-09
Aug-11
Jun-11
Apr-11
Feb-11
Dec-10
Oct-10
Aug-10
Jun-10
Apr-10
Feb-10
Dec-09
Oct-09
Aug-09
Jun-09
Apr-09
Feb-09
Oct-08
Dec-08
Jun-08
0
Apr-09
10
Feb-09
20
200
200
Oct-08
Dec-08
30
250
250
Jun-08
40
300
300
Aug-08
50
Violent crime 2008-11
350
350
Apr-08
60
Recorded crime in Blackburn with Darwen
Criminal damage 2008-11
400
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
70
Apr-08
Recorded crime in Blackburn with Darwen
Auto crime 2008-11
Burglary dwelling 2008-11
Annual change
+15.9%
Monthly change
-4.1%
Average =213.5 per month
Apr-08
Recorded crime in Blackburn with Darwen
Aug-08
Annual change
+29.4%
Monthly change
-1.0%
Average =190.2 per month
Aug-08
Annual change
+20.0
Monthly change
+17.1%
Average =38.4 per month
16
Health
There is no evidence to suggest specific impacts of the recession on health
and ill-health locally. Research evidence indicates that there is a strong
link between long term impacts of economic cycles and mortality rates
resulting from a widening social divide1. General research indicates
negative impact on healthy eating but may help with smoking cessation2.
There is further limited evidence to suggest adverse impacts on mental
health3.
Information on heath conditions suffered by out of work benefit claimants
are available from the Incapacity Benefit/Severe Disablement Allowance
(IB/SDA) and Employment Support Allowance (ESA) claimant data.
From 31st January 2011 people were no-longer to make new IB claims as
ESA was introduced. SDA was withdrawn to new claimants in April 2001.
Of the 7,530 IB/SDA claimants in the borough at November 2001, almost
half (47.9%) were claiming because of mental and behavioural disorders. A
greater proportion than the England average (43.7%). Diseases of the
musculoskeletal system and connective tissue formed the second greatest
proportion of claimants (16.9%) and symptoms not elsewhere classified the
third largest group (10.1%). The latter categories were on a par with the
national averages 16.9% and 11.2% respectively.
Of the 2,630 ESA claimants in the borough, mental and behavioural
disorders again comprises the greatest proportion (43.3%) compared to
39.7% in England. As with the figures for IB/SDA, diseases of the
musculoskeletal system and connective tissue and symptoms not elsewhere
classified were again the second and third largest categories.- (Blackburn
with Darwen 15.2% and 11.2% respectively compared to 14.5% and 13.3%
England).
1
Colledge M, Economic cycles and health. Towards a sociological understanding of
the impact of the recession on health and illness, 1982
2 European Public Health Alliance, Recession affects healthy eating options,
http://www.epha.org/a/3468, 2009
3 Nursing Times.net, Public health in a recession, November 2008
17