Business Demography 2010 Enterprise births, deaths and survival Published; December 2011 Summary Blackburn with Darwen has 4,365 active enterprises, a quarter of the Pennine Lancashire total and 8.7% of Lancashire 14 Authority total. In 2010 Blackburn with Darwen experienced a fall of 180, or 4% in the number of active enterprises on 2009 levels, this is higher than both the regional and national figures. The UK experienced a decrease of 42,000 active businesses on 2009 levels, a fall of 1.8%. The North West experienced a fall of (3.3%) or 7,850 active enterprises. In 2010 there were 445 business births in Blackburn with Darwen, a rate of 10.2%. This compares to 570 births in 2009, a rate of 12.5%. In the same period there were 585 business deaths in Blackburn with Darwen, a rate of 13.4%. This compares to a rate of 13.0% for 2009. For the second consecutive year business deaths exceeded business births. The business death rate is highest in Blackburn with Darwen (13.4%), higher than the regional and national rates of 9.9% and 10.2% and higher than the Pennine Lancashire (12.2%) and the Lancashire 14 district rates (12.9%). As with the national and regional trend each of the six Pennine Lancashire authorities recorded higher business death rates than birth rates during 2010. From 2004 to 2008 births exceed deaths, the exception being 2009 where for the first time business deaths are greater than births. Survival of newly born businesses in Blackburn with Darwen shows that after year one over nine out of ten newly born businesses survive, eight out of ten of all new business births survived till year two, six out of ten till year three and only a half of all newly born businesses survived till year four. By year five Blackburn with Darwen recorded a business survival rate of 39.0%. All other authorities with the exception of Burnley had business survival rates higher than 40% at year 5. The highest survival rate was 46.7% in Pendle, higher than the regional and national average. Business births and deaths The figures in this article are derived from the Inter-Departmental Business Register. It contains information on VAT traders and PAYE employers in a register comprising over two million enterprises, representing 99% of UK economic activity. The IDBR was first published on the 28th November 2010 and replaces the BERR ‘Business start-ups and closures: VAT registrations and de-registrations’. For the purpose of this paper the following definitions are used. Birth: a business that was not present in the previous two years Death: a business that was no longer present in the active file (these figures are subject to revision) Survival: a business that was a birth in the specified year and has survived to the next year and onwards. Data relating to business births and deaths can be downloaded from Office of National Statistics (ONS website) Page 1 of 6 Active Enterprises Table 1: Business births and deaths North West United Kingdom Active enterprises 2009 (B) 236,095 Active enterprises 2010 (B) 228,245 Difference (B-A) % Change 09/10 -41,545 -1.8% 2,341,900 2,300,355 -7,850 -3.3% Source Office for National Statistics: Business Demography: Enterprise Births, Deaths and Survival 1 as a percentage of active enterprises There were approximately 2.3 million active businesses in the UK during 2010, a decrease of 42,000 or 1.8% on 2009 levels. Blackburn with Darwen and the North West also experienced a decrease in the number of active businesses, the North West falling by 7,850 or 3.3% on the previous year. Blackburn with Darwen experienced a 4.0% decrease. This is higher than the regional and national rates and the third highest decrease of the Pennine Lancashire. Table2: Business births and deaths by district District Active enterprises 2009 (A) 4,545 Active enterprises 2010 (B) 4,365 Difference (B-A) % Change 09/10 % of Pennine Lancashire -180 -4.0% 25.3% % of Lancashire 14 Authority 8.7% 2,565 2,515 2,455 2,380 -110 -135 -4.3% -5.4% 14.2% 13.8% 4.9% 4.8% Pendle Ribble Valley 2,795 2,925 2,685 2,840 -110 -85 -3.9% -2.9% 15.5% 16.4% 5.4% 5.7% Rossendale 2,645 2,560 -85 -3.2% 14.8% 5.1% Pennine Lancashire Lancashire (14 Authorities) 17,990 52,045 17,285 49,960 -705 -2,085 -3.9% -4.0% 100.0% 34.6% 100.0% Blackburn with Darwen Burnley Hyndburn Source Office for National Statistics: Business Demography: Enterprise Births, Deaths and Survival 1 as a percentage of active enterprises The broader 14-authority Lancashire area accounts for approximately 50,000 or 2.2% of active enterprises in the UK. Pennine Lancashire accounts for 0.8%. Blackburn with Darwen has 4,365 active enterprises, a quarter of the Pennine Lancashire total and 8.7% of Lancashire 14 Authority total. Hyndburn district had the smallest total, 2,380 active enterprises 13.8% of the Pennine Lancashire total. As with the national and regional trend, each of the six Pennine Lancashire authorities recorded falls in the number of active enterprises. Active enterprises decreased by 4.0% in Blackburn with Darwen. The highest decrease was registered in Hyndburn (5.4%). Page 2 of 6 Business births and deaths Figures for births and deaths of enterprises are derived by looking at the number of active enterprises from one year to the next, for the UK, deaths exceeded births by 62,250 and for the North West by 8,155. Table 3: Business births and deaths North West United Kingdom Active enterprises Births (A) 228,245 2,300,355 22,705 235,145 % change on 2009 -5.1% -0.4% Birth rate1 Deaths (B) 9.9% 10.2% 30,860 297,395 % change on 2009 2.4% 7.4% Death rate1 Births minus Deaths -8,155 -62,250 13.5% 12.9% Source Office for National Statistics: Business Demography: Enterprise Births, Deaths and Survival 1 as a percentage of active enterprises In 2010 there were 297,395 business deaths, a 7.4% increase on 2009 levels. The increase for the North West was 2.4%. In 2010 there were 235,145 business births nationally, a 0.4% decrease on 2009 levels. Two measures can be calculated using the above data and these are the business birth and death rates. Birth and death rates are calculated by dividing births and deaths by the number of active enterprises. Business deaths as a percentage of active enterprises give a death rate of 12.9% nationally and 13.5% for the North West region. Business births as a percentage of active enterprises give a birth rate of 10.2% nationally and 9.9% for the North West. Blackburn with Darwen has the highest business birth rate (10.2%) as a percentage of active businesses but also has the highest death rate (13.4%). Table2: Business births and deaths by district District Active enterprises 4,365 Births Deaths 445 Birth rate1 10.2% 585 Death rate1 13.4% Burnley Hyndburn 2,455 2,380 220 210 9.0% 8.8% 315 285 12.8% 12.0% Pendle Ribble Valley 2,685 2,840 265 255 9.9% 9.0% 320 300 11.9% 10.6% Rossendale 2,560 240 9.4% 300 11.7% Pennine Lancashire Lancashire (14 Authorities) 17285 49,960 1,635 4,495 9.5% 9.0% 2,105 6,455 12.2% 12.9% Blackburn with Darwen Source Office for National Statistics: Business Demography: Enterprise Births, Deaths and Survival 1 as a percentage of active enterprises In 2010 there were 445 business births in Blackburn with Darwen, a rate of 10.2%, this is much lower than 2009 levels. In 2009 there were 570 births, a rate of 12.5%. In 2010 there were 585 business deaths in Blackburn with Darwen, a rate of 13.4%, this is higher than the business death rate of 12.9% registered in 2009. The business birth rate is lowest in Hyndburn (8.8%), Burnley and the Ribble Valley (9.0%) and highest in Blackburn with Darwen (10.2%). Burnley, Hyndburn, Ribble Valley and Rossendale have birth rates lower than both the national (9.9%) and regional rate of 10.2%. The business death rate is highest in Blackburn with Darwen (13.4%), lower than the regional rate of 13.5% but higher than the national rate of 12.9% and higher than the Pennine Lancashire and the Lancashire 14 district rates. The Ribble Valley has the lowest business death rate of any Pennine Lancashire authority. Page 3 of 6 Percentage change in births and deaths % change in Business Births All Pennine Lancashire authorities experienced a decrease in the number of business births compared to the previous year. The highest percentage decreases were registered in Blackburn with Darwen (21.9%) and Hyndburn (19.2%). Ribble Valley experienced the smallest decrease in business births (3.8%). 0.0% Blackburn -5.0% Burnley Hyndburn Ribble Valley Rossendale -3.8% -10.0% -8.6% -9.4% -12.0% -15.0% -20.0% -25.0% Pendle with Darwen -19.2% -21.9% % change in Business Deaths One Pennine Lancashire district (Burnley) experienced an increase in the number of business deaths. This increase (1.6%) however was marginal. 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% All other Pennine Lancashire districts experienced a decrease in business deaths, the largest decrease in business deaths was in the Ribble Valley, which had 60 fewer business deaths in 2010 than in 2009. 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% -5.0% Blackburn -10.0% with Darwen -0.8% Burnley Hyndburn -1.7% Pendle Ribble Valley Rossendale -6.3% -15.0% -16.7% -20.0% Business births and deaths - Trend over time The following graphs show the trend over time of business births and deaths in Blackburn with Darwen. Blackburn with Darwen 2007 585 590 570 445 455 2006 485 540 435 530 605 480 400 510 500 595 600 640 700 300 200 100 0 2004 2005 2008 2009 Births 2010 Deaths From 2004 to 2008 business births exceeded business deaths, this trend has reversed over the last two years. This follows national and regional trends. Other Pennine Lancashire authorities have experienced the same trend. Page 4 of 6 Survival Rates A business that is active at any time in the year following the year of its birth is defined as having survived 1 year, and so on for other years. Table 3 Births and survival rates Births (2004) 1 Year per cent 2 Year per cent 3 Year per cent 4 Year per cent 5 Year United Kingdom 274,855 95.9 79.8 64.7 53.9 44.4 North west 29,220 96.3 80.3 64.8 53.7 43.2 Source Office for National Statistics: Business Demography: Enterprise Births, Deaths and Survival Table 3 and the district tables below emphasise the fact that even after only five years, more than half of active enterprises no longer exist. At the national level and regional, only 46.8% of those born in 2004 were still active five years later. Blackburn with Darwen Burnley Year Births 605 2005 530 2006 640 2007 540 2008 570 2009 Hyndburn Yr 1 95.9 97.9 93.1 94.8 90.8 Yr 2 79.0 78.3 77.2 72.7 Yr 3 63.2 59.5 59.8 Yr 4 51.8 46.9 Yr 5 39.9 Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Pendle Births 390 345 280 295 250 Yr 1 96.7 97.4 97.9 94.9 95.2 Yr 2 79.0 78.8 83.9 76.2 Year Births 330 2005 285 2006 325 2007 270 2008 260 2009 Ribble Valley Yr 1 96.4 94.8 92.0 94.8 93.5 Yr 2 80.0 83.0 76.3 74.1 Yr 3 65.2 67.7 56.9 Yr 4 54.5 52.8 Yr 5 43.0 Year Births 345 2005 275 2006 330 2007 260 2008 290 2009 Rossendale Yr 1 98.0 95.3 92.7 94.3 93.1 Yr 2 82.9 78.6 77.9 74.4 Yr 3 67.2 63.0 60.6 Yr 4 57.7 50.4 Yr 5 46.7 Yr 1 98.8 95.5 97.1 93.9 91.8 Yr 2 79.7 82.4 85.3 81.7 Yr 3 66.7 67.1 62.4 Yr 4 53.9 50.8 Yr 5 42.3 Yr 1 96.1 96.6 95.6 95.4 93.6 Yr 2 81.6 82.6 80.3 77.5 Yr 3 68.9 66.5 61.0 Yr 4 55.0 51.2 Yr 5 44.1 Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Births 345 315 340 315 265 Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Births 330 320 315 280 265 Yr 3 61.0 58.3 62.5 Yr 4 50.3 47.5 Yr 5 38.7 The district tables above show the survival of newly born businesses in Blackburn with Darwen and Pennine Lancashire districts, survival rates after year one is high with over nine out of ten newly born businesses surviving. Four-fifths of all new business births survived till year two, six out of ten till year three and only a half of all newly born businesses survived till year four. The trend is such that by year five at the local authority level Blackburn with Darwen recorded a business survival rate of 39.0%. All other authorities with the exception of Burnley had business survival rates higher than 40% at year 5. The highest survival rate was 46.7% in Pendle, higher than the regional and national average. Further information This briefing was prepared by: Saeed Patel Research and Intelligence Officer Corporate Research Joint Intelligence 3rd Floor Old Town Hall saeed.patel@blackburn.gov.uk 01254 58(5106) All Office for national Statistics data is reproduced under the terms of the Open Government License (OGL) and UK Government Licensing Framework. Source: Office for National Statistics licensed under the Open Government License v.1.0 Data: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/publications/all-releases.html?definition=tcm:77-21553 Page 5 of 6 Page 6 of 6