How are ARMS
Data Collected?
an Overview
Rich Allen
Deputy Administrator
National Agricultural Statistics Service
Goals
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Clarify survey content
Describe data interrelationships
Outline sampling approach
Mention publicity approaches
Highlight data collection concerns
Touch on analysis/summary
Farm
Production
Expenditures
Survey
1972 - 1984
Cost of
Production
Surveys
1973 - 1984
Farm
Costs and
Returns
Survey
1985 - 1995
Cropping
Practices
Survey
1990 - 1995
Agricultural
Resource
Management
Survey
1996 – 2???
Multiple phases are
used for survey
efficiency,
timeliness, and data
linkages
ARMS Phase I
• Conducted between May and July to
screen farms for the later phases
• Ensures operations are still in business
• Defines the sampling frame for later
phases
• Shortens initial contact (average 5-10
minutes)
• Collects general farm data such as
crops grown, livestock inventory, and
value of sales
ARMS Phase II
• Conducted from September through
December when information should be
fresh
• Collects data on chemical usage, production
practices, resource use, and variable costs
of production for specific commodities
• Shortens interview by focusing on specific
commodities (3-year average – 60 Minutes)
ARMS Phase III
• Conducted from February through April
when records should be complete
• Collects information on whole farm
finance, operator, and household
characteristics
• Uses multiple questionnaire versions
• Requires a considerable amount of time
(3-year average – 94 minutes)
Cost of Production Matrix 1
Year
Commodities
2000
Dairy, Rice, Sugar beets
2001
Corn
2002
Soybeans
2003
Barley, Upland Cotton,
Sorghum
2004
Peanuts, Durum Wheat,
Other Spring Wheat,
Winter Wheat, Hogs
Cost of Production Matrix 2
Year
Commodities
2005
Corn, Dairy, Oats
2006
Soybeans, Poultry
2007
Upland Cotton, Rice
2003 ARMS II Sample Sizes
Commodity
Samples
Barley
2,133
Sorghum
1,433
Cotton
2,559
Positive responses from Phase II move to Phase III.
2003 ARMS III Typical
Versions
Version
Cost & Returns Report
Samples
12,375
Barley PPCR
2,133
Sorghum PPCR
1,433
Cotton PPCR
2,559
Subtotal
18,500
(Core – 15 states – 16,850)
Chem Use Matrix 1
Year
Commodities
2000
Corn, Upland Cotton,
Soybeans, Durum Wheat,
Other Spring Wheat, Winter
Wheat
Upland Cotton, Soybeans, Fall
Potatoes
Corn, Durum Wheat Wheat,
Other Spring Wheat, Winter
Wheat
2001
2002
Chem Use Matrix 2
Year
Commodities
2003
Corn, Fall Potatoes
2004
Soybeans
2005
Upland Cotton, Fall
Potatoes
Durum Wheat, Other
Spring Wheat, Winter
Wheat
Corn, Fall Potatoes
2006
2007
2003 ARMS III Expansion
• New funding provides for increased
sample sizes for state level data
• A shorter “core” questionnaire has
been designed
• Two survey modes will be used for
initial contacts
– Personal
– Mail
Sample Selection Objectives
• Represent all operations
• Create detailed data sets
• Minimize respondent burden
Perry – Burt Sampling
• Sample selection weights
adjusted for previously selected
operations
• Approach virtually eliminates
chance of selection in
consecutive years
Stratification
• Main variable is economic size
class
• Sampling rates adjusted for
operations selected for
commodity specific contacts
Data Expansions
• Basic weights based on inverse
of selection factors
• Weights adjusted within
strata for missing data
Data Edits and Analysis
• Records edited for internal
consistency
• Individual expansions examined for
outliers
• National and Regional summaries
are reviewed
Routine ARMS III Uses
• Income and expense estimates to BEA
- - late June
• Farm Production Expenditures Report
(NASS) - - mid-July
• National Income Estimates (ERS
website) - - September
• Ag Income and Finance S & O (ERS
website) - - November
ARMS Data Collection Concerns
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Survey seems long
Some questions are not farm related
Some question seem quite personal
Respondents often don’t understand
“What’s in it for me?”
• Some questions ask for things that
can’t be easily answered
Past Data Collection Approaches
• Strengthen enumerator training
• Minimize overlap with other
surveys
• Send out pre-survey letters
• Set up interview appointments
• Send back personalized summary
information
Survey Promotion Approaches
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NASS awareness postcards
Pre-survey “theme” letters
Data user testimonies
Promotional brochures
Data Collection Help Needed
• How to stress “What’s in it for
you?”
• How to describe state and local
data uses