Estimating the Supply of Agricultural Residues

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THE SUPPLY OF CORN STOVER IN

THE MIDWESTERN UNITED STATES

Richard G. Nelson 1 ,

Marie E. Walsh 2 , and

John Sheehan 3

1 Kansas State University

2 University of Tennessee

3 National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Background

• U.S. heavily dependent upon fossil fuels

– Consumes 98 Quads of primary energy annually (86% from fossil fuels)(year 2002)

• 39 percent of primary energy use from petroleum (64% is imported).

• 24 percent of primary energy use from natural gas

• 23 percent of primary energy use from coal

• Annual GHG emissions projected to increase from

1559 (year 2002) to 2237 mMT by 2025 ce

• Biomass resources, such as corn stover, can be used to produce electricity, transportation fuels, and chemicals while providing energy, economic, and environmental benefits

Project Objectives

• Develop and apply a methodology to estimate quantities (dt/ac/yr) of crop residue that must be left on the field by individual soil type, crop rotation, and tillage practice to keep rain/wind erosion at or below the tolerable soil loss level (T)

• Estimate crop residue supply curves for a continuous corn rotation

(weighted by tillage practice) for 10

Midwestern states (IA, IL, IN, MN,

WI, NE, MO, OH, KS, and SD)

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

1.

2.

Agricultural Crop Residue

Retention/Removal Analysis

Residue Required for Erosion Control is a

Function of:

Type of Erosion (wind/rain)

Field operations (tillage scenarios, maintenance, etc.)

Soil Type

Climate (rainfall, temperature, retained moisture)

Physical field characteristics (% slope, soil erodibility)

Crop and cropping rotation

Tolerable Soil Loss, T

Remaining Residue Methodology

• Identify physical characteristics (soil erodibility, percent slope, etc.) of all cropland soils in each county

• Apply the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and Wind Erosion eQuation (WEQ) to each soil type to estimate the quantity of residue that must remain on the field throughout the year as a function of three tillage scenarios (CT, MT, and NT) such that T is not exceeded

• Calculate county-level quantities of corn stover (dt/ac) that must remain using an acreage-weighted approach

Removable Residue Methodology

• County-level quantities of corn stover (dt/ac) that can be removed by tillage practice are the quantity produced (grain yields times residue factors) minus the higher of the rain/wind erosion quantities that must remain

• Total county-level quantities of corn stover that can be removed (dt) are estimated as: removable quantities by tillage type * total corn acres * percent of corn acres in each tillage type

State Average Corn Stover

Quantities

State Average Stover Produced, Quantities That Must Remain to Control Erosion by Tillage Practice, and Removable Stover

Quantities by Tillage Practice (dt/ac)

Average

Residue

Produced

(dt/ac)

Average Residues That Must Remain to

Control Erosion by Tillage Practice

(dt/ac)

Average Residues that Can Be Removed by Tillage Practice (dt/ac)

CT MT NT CT MT NT

Illinois

Indiana

Iowa

Kansas

Minnesota

Missouri

Nebraska

Ohio

South Dakota

3.85

3.67

3.01

3.73

4.16

3.93

4,27

3.56

4.08

3.28

2.60

2.54

2.66

82.96

1.27

4.95

62.19

3.01

67.08

3.15

Wisconsin

CT is conventional tillage; MT is mulch till/reduced till; NT is no-till.

Source: Nelson 2004.

2.40

1.80

5.37

2.04

1.53

1.46

1.66

3.50

0.74

3.02

1.32

0.79

1.26

1.00

0.70

0.70

0.78

2.37

0.27

1.63

0.00

1.16

0.00

0.82

1.78

1.68

1.74

0.00

2.81

0.26

1.49

1.94

0.00

1.69

2.64

2.50

2.61

0.41

3.33

0.60

2.53

2.88

1.77

2.73

3.45

3.23

3.48

1.24

3.81

1.65

Corn Stover Collection Cost

Methodology

• Corn stover harvested as large round bales

• Collection costs include mowing/raking/ baling, picking up, and transport to field edge

• Equipment cost methodology (fuel/lube, repairs, capital, insurance/housing, labor, etc.) and operating parameters from AAEA and ASAE

• Costs vary as a function of corn stover quantity (dt/ac)

Corn Stover Collection Costs as a

Function of Removable Quantity

Corn Stover Collection Costs

40.00

35.00

30.00

25.00

20.00

15.00

Corn Stover Quantity (dt/ac)

Corn Stover Supply Curves

State Quantities of Corn Stover Available for Bioenergy and Bioproducts by Collection Cost ($/dt)

12.50

17.50

Illinois

Indiana

Iowa

Kansas

Minnesota

Missouri

Nebraska

Ohio

South Dakota

Wisconsin

TOTAL

Source: Walsh 2004. Unpublished Analysis

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

45.00

50.00

9.1

0.5

0.8

1.4

0.0

0.2

35.0

7.6

3.6

11.7

0.0

Quantity (million dry tons)

19.9

21.5

22.5

10.1

24.2

0.1

18.8

1.0

10.7

25.4

0.4

19.0

1.4

11.1

26.1

0.6

19.1

1.7

7.0

4.1

0.7

2.3

88.1

8.7

4.5

0.8

2.9

95.4

9.1

4.7

0.8

3.2

98.9

19.2

1.7

9.3

4.9

0.9

3.3

100.3

22.6

11.3

26.4

0.8

19.2

1.7

9.3

4.9

0.9

3.3

100.8

22.8

11.4

26.5

0.8

19.2

1.8

9.3

4.9

0.9

3.4

101.4

22.8

11.4

26.7

0.9

On-Going Analysis

• Erosion analyses completed for several crops (corn, soybeans, wheat, rye, barley, oats, rice) and rotations (e.g., continuous, corn-soybean, wheatfallow, etc.) by soil type and tillage practice for continental U.S.

• Soil carbon needs analysis underway

• Incorporation of available quantities and collection cost estimates into dynamic agricultural sector model already modified to include energy crops (POLYSYS) to estimate integrated biomass supply curves

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