Work in Progress:
A Retrospective on the NBER
Working Paper Series
Claudia Goldin
Harvard University
NBER Working Papers: Annual Flow 1978 to 2013
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
NBER Working Papers: Annual Flow 1978 to 2013
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
7 original programs
DAE, EFG, ITI, LS,
ME, PR, PE; 1978
300
200
100
0
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
NBER Working Papers: Annual Flow 1978 to 2013
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
7 original programs
DAE, EFG, ITI, LS,
ME, PR, PE; 1978
AG
1986
HC
1990
300
AP, CF, IO
1991
200
100
0
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
NBER Working Papers: Annual Flow 1978 to 2013
1200
> 1,300
RAs & FRFs
EEE
2007
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
DEV
2012
POL
2006
7 original programs
DAE, EFG, ITI, LS,
ME, PR, PE; 1978
AG
1986
IFM
HC
1993
1990
300
AP, CF, IO
1991
200
ED
2001
HE 2001?
LE 2002?
CH
1996
100
0
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
NBER Working Papers: Cumulative 1978 to 2013
22500
20000
17500
y = 0.2307x3 - 1367x2 + 3E+06x - 2E+09
R² = 0.9997
15000
12500
10000
7500
5000
2500
0
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
According to this “model,” the 50,000th NBER Working Paper will appear in January 2030.
But will it? Will the “model” change?
NBER Programs per Working Paper: 1978 to 2014
2.0
1.0
1.9
0.9
Mean Number of Programs
1.8
0.8
1.7
0.7
1.6
0.6
1.5
0.5
1.4
0.4
Fraction with
> 1 program
1.3
0.3
1.2
0.2
1.1
0.1
1.0
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
Mean Number of Programs
2000
2005
2010
Fraction with > 1 Program
0.0
2015
NBER Programs per PE Working Paper: 1978 to 2014
3.0
2.5
2.0
Only programs existing by 1993
1.5
1.0
1975
1980
1985
1990
NumProg PE
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
PE with progs to 1993
The NBER Working Paper series has become less specialized and more varied over time.
Authors per Working Paper: 1978 to 2014
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Number of Authors
2005
2010
2015
Authors per Working Paper: 1978 to 2014
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
1975
1980
1985
1990
Number of Authors
1995
2000
PE
LS
2005
EFG
2010
2015
Fraction NBER Authors per Working Paper
by Number of Authors: 2013
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Note: Conditional on at least one NBER author per working paper (mean = 60.4%).
Work in Progress:
A Retrospective on the NBER
Working Paper Series
Claudia Goldin
Harvard University