Modeling the Effects of Invasive
Species on the International
Trade of Forest Products
Joseph Buongiorno, Shushuai Zu, Ruhong Li
U.W. Madison
James Turner
Forest Research, Rotorua, NZ
Jeff Prestemon
USDA-FS, SO
Background
• U.S. forests at risk
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Chestnut blight, early 1900s
Dutch Elm Disease, mid-1900s
Balsam and Hemlock Woolly Adelgids
Sudden Oak Death
Gypsy Moth
Spruce budworm
Oak wilt
• U.S. is largest producer, consumer, importer
• Globalization
– GATT-WTO
– NAFTA
– FTAA
• Growing trade => growing threat
• Other countries face same issues
Objectives
• Losses incurred by producers and
consumers due to timber supply
reductions caused by invasive species
• Effects of regulations (phytosanitary rules
and import bans) on producer and
consumer welfare
Global Forest Products Model
 Dynamic Competitive
equilibrium
 Demand
 Supply
 Trade
 14 forest products
 180 countries
GFPM Product Flow
Raw material
Intermediate product
Final product
Fuelwood
Fuelwood
Other roundwood
Other industrial roundwood
Industrial roundwood
Sawnwood
Plywood
Particleboard
Fiberboard
Other fiber pulp
Waste paper
Mechanical pulp
Newsprint
Chemical pulp
Printing & writing paper
Other paper & paperboard
GFPM dynamics
P
P
T
π
T+ 1
T
T +1
Q
T
Q
T
T +1
Alternative Scenarios
 Status quo projections, 2002 – 2012
 Ban on global trade of logs
Status quo:World plywood consumption
90000
80000
70000
Thousandcubicmeters
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
Year
Africa North/Central America SouthAmerica Asia Oceania Europe
2006
2011
Status quo: Net Trade of Industrial
Roundwood
60000
Thousand cubic meters
30000
0
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
-30000
-60000
-90000
-120000
Africa
North/Central America
South America
Year
Asia
Oceania
Europe
2011
Status quo: U.S.A
Newsprint
14.00
12.00
million t
10.00
Production
Import
Export
Consumption
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
1961
1971
1981
1991
Year
2001
2011
Status quo: World Prices
1600
Price of Paper and Paperboard
1400
1997 US$ per metric ton
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
Year
Newsprint
Printing & writing paper
Other paper & paperboard
2001
2006
Effects on industrial roundwood
Cons
United States
3%
Prod Import Export
-100% -100%
-1%
Brazil
2%
-1%
China
-17%
48%
3%
2%
-43%
18%
Malaysia
9%
-3%
EU-15
-5%
7%
Russian Fed
7%
-35%
World
-2%
-2%
Indonesia
Japan
-100% -100%
-100% -100%
-100% -100%
-100% -100%
-100% -100%
-100% -100%
-100% -100%
-100% -100%
Effects on Sawn wood
Cons
Prod
Imp
Exp
United States
-1%
4%
0%
172%
Brazil
-2%
0%
0%
14%
China
-9%
-65%
20%
-33%
Indonesia
-1%
4%
0%
15%
Japan
-7%
-61%
82%
0%
Malaysia
-4%
5%
0%
12%
EU-15
-2%
-5%
7%
-1%
Russian Fed
-1%
7%
0%
14%
World
-2%
-2%
11%
10%
Effects on Wood Panels
Cons
Prod Import Export
United States
-2%
2%
-4%
73%
Brazil
-2%
4%
-8%
14%
China
-12%
-21%
7%
-19%
Indonesia
-1%
5%
0%
11%
Japan
-7%
-77%
54%
-1%
Malaysia
-6%
12%
39%
18%
EU-15
-7%
-8%
7%
1%
Russian Fed
0%
20%
-17%
66%
World
-5%
-5%
8%
8%
Effects on Wood Pulp
Cons
Prod Import Export
United States
1%
3%
0%
18%
Brazil
3%
3%
0%
4%
China
6%
1%
6%
0%
Indonesia
-1%
0%
0%
1%
Japan
-2%
-11%
43%
-30%
Malaysia
11%
19%
0%
----
EU-15
-4%
-3%
1%
3%
Russian Fed
0%
1%
0%
3%
World
0%
0%
4%
4%
Effects on Paper and Paperboard
United States
Brazil
China
Cons
0%
2%
0%
Prod Import Export
1%
-4%
3%
3%
-2%
9%
5%
-12% 10%
Indonesia
Japnan
Malaysia
-1%
-1%
0%
-1%
-2%
7%
-6%
25%
-2%
-2%
-24%
42%
EU-15
Russian Fed
World
0%
-1%
0%
-3%
0%
0%
1%
0%
-2%
-4%
3%
-2%
Effects on prices
World
U.S.A
Industrial Roundwood
4%
-3%
Sawnwood
7%
5%
Panels
17%
6%
Pulp
8%
23%
Paper and paperboard
2%
2%
Future Work
• Finish log export ban scenario analysis
• Study effects of treatment costs on
trade, production, and prices
• Develop timber supply sub-model to
simulate effects of invasive species