THE CULTURE WAR OVER FOOD AND
FARMING: WHO IS WINNING?
Robert Paarlberg
rpaarlberg@wellesley.edu
University of Wisconsin
April 20, 2012
FUNDAMENTAL DISAGREEMENTS
• Over what farms should look like
• Over the most important challenge to farming
• Over farming’s proper relationship to nature
• Over who should make decisions about food
and agriculture
WHAT FARMS SHOULD LOOK LIKE
ADVOCATES FOR CONVENTIONAL
AGRICULTURE
Large, specialized farms
are OK.
ADVOCATES FOR ALTERNATIVE
AGRICULTURE
Large, specialized farms are
not OK.
THE MOST IMPORTANT CHALLENGE TO
FARMING
ADVOCATES FOR CONVENTIONAL
AGRICULTURE
Produce much more food
by 2050
ADVOCATES FOR ALTERNATIVE
AGRICULTURE
Preserve traditional rural
livelihoods, protect
biodiversity, and provide
ecosystem services.
FARMING’S PROPER RELATIONSHIP TO NATURE
ADVOCATES FOR CONVENTIONAL
AGRICULTURE
Protect nature by
generating high yields, to
reduce the area being
cropped.
ADVOCATES FOR ALTERNATIVE
AGRICULTURE
The best systems are those
that imitate nature.
WHO SHOULD MAKE DECISIONS ABOUT
AGRICULTURE?
ADVOCATES FOR CONVENTIONAL
AGRICULTURE
Governments, technical
experts, and the market.
ADVOCATES FOR ALTERNATIVE
AGRICULTURE
Governments, experts, and
markets are not to be
trusted.
THE OPPOSING CAMPS
THE CAMP SYMPATHETIC TO
CONVENTIONAL AGRICULTURE
•Commercial Farmers
•Agribusiness Companies
•Ag Committees of Cong.
•Scientists
•Economists
THE CAMP SYMPATHETIC TO
ALTERNATIVE AGRICULTURE
• Environmental advocates
• Social justice advocates
• Anti-corporate activists
• Anti-globalization activists
• Cultural elites
ALTERNATIVE AGRICULTURE DOMINATES THE
CULTURAL MARKETPLACE:
LOCAL FOOD:
OUTCOMES IN COMMERCIAL MARKETPLACE
• Number of farmers markets in US has doubled
since 1998
• Number of CSA’s has risen from 400 in 2001 to
at least 4000 today
• Even so, food sales through farmers markets
and CSA’s make up only 4/10 of 1% of all
agricultural sales in the United States
ORGANIC FOOD:
OUTCOMES IN COMMERCIAL MARKETPLACE
• In 2010, only 4% of food sales organic
• Only 7% of these organic food sales took place
at farmers’ markets
• 45% of organic production in just two states,
with large, specialized farms
Harvested Organic Cropland in 2008 was
0.51% of the US Total Cropland
Harvested
Organic Cropland,
1,596,865
Remaining US
Cropland Acres,
308,010,736
Vegetable Crops: Relative Yields
Relative Yields for Organic Vegetables
Sweet Potatoes
Snap Beans
Sweet Corn
Squash
Broccoli
Potatoes
Cauliflower
Watermelon
100%
Tomatoes
Onions
Cantaloupes
Celery
Bell Peppers
Garlic
Cabbage
Spinach
Carrots
Lettuce
Artichokes
0
20
40
60
80
100
Percent of Overall Average
120
140
Row Crops: Relative Yields
Relative Yields for Organic Row Crops
Canola
Rye
Oats
Dry edible beans
Peanuts
Corn
Cotton
Flaxseed
Soybeans
100%
Peas, lentils etc
Winter Wheat
Rice
Durum Wheat
Spring Whet
Sorghum
Proso Millet
Safflower
0
20
40
60
80
Percent of Overall Average
100
120
IS CONVENTIONAL AGRICULTURE
FALTERING?
Annual Rate of Growth of TFP
1970-90
1991-06
North America
1.49
1.91
Asia
1.51
2.62
FARMING IN USA NO LONGER INPUT-INTENSIVE
SUSTAINABILITY GAINS FROM MODERN FARMING
IN OECD COUNTRIES, 1990-2004
VOLUME OF FOOD
PRODUCTION
+ 5 PERCENT
LAND AREA FARMED
- 4 PERCENT
IRRIG. WATER USE
- 9 PERCENT
EXCESS “N” USE
- 17 PERCENT
PESTICIDE USE
- 5 PERCENT
G. GAS EM. FROM AG
- 3 PERCENT
INCREASE IN TOTAL
EN. USE IN AG
1/6 THE RATE OF INCREASE
IN REST OF ECONOMY
POST-1980 EMERGENCE OF
“PRECISION” CROP FARMING
• More precise irrigation techniques
• More precise fertilizer use
• Reduced pesticide use
• Reduced tillage, saving diesel fuel
GPS Equipped Tractor
Pre-plant Variable Rate Irrigation
GIS MAPPING:
INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGE
UPTAKE OF PRECISION FARMING
OHIO, 2010
All Farms
Big Farms
($1 million in sales)
(50% of all sales)
MOUNTED GPS
DEVICE
30.2%
78.5%
YIELD MONITOR
DEVICE
25.3%
79.7%
GEO-REFERENCED
SOIL MAPPING
22.7%
55.8%
DRIP IRRIGATION
Home Made Drip Irrigation
REDUCING PESTICIDE USE
• Since 1972, U.S. ban on organochlorine insecticides
• Since 1990s, variable rate application
• Since 1996 introduction of Bt corn and Bt cotton
(reducing insecticide use)
• Since 1996 introduction of glyphosate-resistant
soybeans (replacing herbicides that are more toxic to
animals)
Bt Corn: Protection Against Corn Borer
2010 REPORT FROM EU COMMISSION
DIRECTORATE-GENERAL FOR RESEARCH:
"The main conclusion to be drawn from the
efforts of more than 130 research projects,
covering a period of more than 25 years of
research, and involving more than 500
independent research groups, is that
biotechnology, and in particular GMOs, are
not per se more risky than, for example,
conventional plant breeding technologies."
REDUCED TILLAGE AND CULTIVATION TO SAVE
SOIL AND DIESEL FUEL
• 1980s: Machines that seed unplowed fields
• 1990s: Glyphosate-resistant crops that allow
reduced mechanical cultivation
Seeding Without Plowing
ABSOLUTE LEVELS OF FARM PRODUCTIVITY
Production Value Per Cereal Production per
Agricultural Worker
Hectare of Land
UNITED STATES
THAILAND
KENYA
$45,000
6.6 tons
$705
3.0 tons
$350
1.6 tons
LIVESTOCK FARMING:
A SEPARATE ISSUE?
CAFOS
LIVESTOCK FARMING
CAFOs work well for:
• Reducing costs to consumers
• Reducing the frequency of food contamination
CAFOs work less well for:
• Waste disposal
• Dependence on antibiotics
• Animal welfare
LEGAL, POLITICAL, AND COMMERCIAL
ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY HOSTILE TO CAFOs
• Court and FDA actions against growth
promotion use of antibiotics
• State level bans on gestation crates and small
cage space for hens
• Voluntary phase-outs of pork from sow crates
by Hormel, Smithfield Foods, Whole Foods,
Chipolte, McDonald’s
CONCLUSION:
WHO IS WINNING?
• Alternative agriculture has recently
become dominant in the elite cultural
marketplace.
• Conventional crop farming has given up
none of its dominance in the commercial
marketplace.
• Conventional livestock farming is being
forced to accept new restraints from the
commercial and political marketplace.