Coal and the Climate Challenge
in China
KELLY SIMS GALLAGHER
Energy Technology Innovation Policy
Harvard Kennedy School
www.energytechnologypolicy.org
Outline
• China’s energy demand in context
• Domestic energy and environmental challenges
and centrality of coal
• The rise of China’s influence on world energy
prices and environmental conditions
• Confronting the climate-change challenge
• Concluding thoughts and prospects for
international energy cooperation with China
Energy Comparisons
USA
China
China/USA
Total energy consumption, 2006 (Mtoe)
2326
1697
72%
Net oil imports, 2006 (M bbl/day)
12.3
3.4
28%
Total oil consumption, 2006
(M bbl/day)
20.6
7.4
36%
Electricity capacity, 2007 (GW)
992
713
71%
Coal consumption, 2006 (Mtoe)
567
1193
210%
Reserves (percent of world)
Coal
Oil
Gas
27%
2%
3%
13%
1%
1%
Passenger cars (cars, pickups, SUVs),
millions, 2007
~230
~30
13%
Total carbon dioxide emissions, 2007 (billion
tonnes)
~6
~6
100%
Population
300 million
1.3 billion
433%
Climate Change Stabilization Scenarios
2030
Source: IPCC Working Group I Report, Fourth Assessment, 2007, pg. 792
Projections of CO2 Emissions
Through 2030
45000
40000
MMT carbon dioxide
35000
30000
United States
China
Rest of World
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1990
2005
2015
2030
Data source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2007
China’s GHG Emissions Profile
China's Carbon Dioxide Emissions
By Sector, 2000
Transport
8%
Pulp & Paper
3%
Iron & Steel
9%
Cement
28%
Electricity
52%
Data Sources: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Center for Clean Air Policy,
“Greenhouse Gas Mitigation in China,” November 2006 .
Per Capita Carbon Emissions from
Fossil-Fuel Burning 2003
metric tons of carbon
6.0
5.4
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.6
2.6
2.0
1.0
0.9
0.3
0.0
USA
China
Japan
UK
India
Coal Emissions
2005
2030 BAU
Total
Emissions
(Gt CO2)
Coal
Emissions
(% of
total)
Coal as
fraction of
global
emissions
Emissions
(Gt CO2)
Coal
Emissions
(% of
total)
Coal
emissions
as fraction
of global
emissions
United
States
5.8
2.1
(36%)
8%
6.8
2.7
(39%)
6%
China
5
4.1
(82%)
16%
11.4
8.9
(78%)
21%
World
26
11
(42%)
42%
41.9
18.7
(45%)
45%
Data source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2007
Transport Emissions from Oil
2005
2030 BAU
Total
Emissions
(Gt CO2)
Transport
emissions
from oil
(% of
total)
Transport
as % of
global
emissions
Emissions
(Gt CO2)
Transport
emissions
from oil
(% of total)
Transport
as % of
global
United
States
5.8
2.5
(43%)
9%
6.8
2.8
(41%)
7%
China
5.1
0.32
(6%)
1%
11.4
1.2
(11%)
3%
World
26.6
5.2
20%
41.9
8.0
19%
Data source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2007 (assumes all oil goes to transport for USA)
CC
U
SC
SC
rit
ica
l
PC
D
D
+F
G
D
PC
CR
+S
N
PC
SC
+S
N
U
D
PC
CR
+F
G
SC
+S
N
D
PC
+F
G
PC
+F
G
SC
+F
G
U
PC
SC
D
PC
rit
ica
l
+F
G
rit
ica
l
PC
Su
bc
CR
(M
ul
tiIG
N
CF
oz
CC
B
zl
e
(d
ga
ry
sif
co
ie
al
r)
pu
lv
er
iz
ed
)
IG
Su
bc
Su
bc
capital cost (Yuan/kW)
Capital Costs of Advanced
Coal in China in 2006
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Zhao, Xiao, Gallagher, Wang, and Xu, forthcoming, Energy Policy, 2008
1400
80
1200
70
1000
800
50
40
600
30
400
20
200
10
Feb/08
Dec/07
Oct/07
Aug/07
Jun/07
Apr/07
Feb/07
Oct/06
Dec/06
Aug/06
Apr/06
Jun/06
Feb/06
Dec/05
Oct/05
Jun/05
Aug/05
0
Apr/05
0
Gasoline (US$/1000L)
Automotive Diesel (US$/1000L)
Domestic Heating Oil (US$/1000L)
Fuel Oil for Industry (US$/Tonne)
Crude Oil (US$/bbl)
Statistics, International
Energy Agency, February
2008 (above); and Oil
Market Report, IEA,
February 2008 (left)
(Crude Oil) USD/bbl
60
Feb/05
(Petroleum products) USD/unit
Global Oil
Demand Growth
and Oil Prices
90
Global Coal
Demand Growth
and Coal Prices
World Coal Consumption
Data Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. DOE, 9/17/07
Oster, S., “China Spurs
Coal-Price Surge,” WSJ,
February 12, 2008 (above);
EIA, “International Coal
Consumption Tables,” 2007
(left)
140.000
Quadrillion Btu
120.000
100.000
80.000
60.000
40.000
20.000
0.000
1980
1982
1984
1986
China
1988
1990
1992
United States
1994
1996
1998
Rest of World
2000
2002
2004