How difficult compromise on
sustainability policy really is
Sarah Anderson
Bren School of Environmental Science &
Management
UCSB
0
50
Yes
Yes?
60
????????????
100
No?
No
Thinking about Environmental
Politics: The Case of Climate
Change Legislation
Source: IPCC report
Passed House 219-211
Where are the Senators?
Congress has Polarized since the 1960s
30
20
0
10
Frequency
40
50
87th House of Representatives (1961-1962)
-1
-.5
0
.5
DW-Nominate First Dimension
1
30
20
0
10
Frequency
40
50
106th House of Representatives (1999-2000)
-1
Source: Data provided by Keith Poole, graphs by Mo Fiorina.
-.5
0
.5
DW-Nominate First Dimension
1
Median Party LCV Scores
Counting the Votes
Pro-CC Legislation
0
50
Yes
Yes?
44
Counts from Environment and Energy Daily
Against CC Legislation
100
60
????????????
21
No?
No
34
Gang of 16
0
50
Yes
Yes?
60
????????????
100
No?
No
• Party: Democrats
• Ideology: Moderates
• Constituency:
– From rust belt states
Wanted: Protection for their states’ economies
Standard Assumption
Pro-CC Legislation
0
Yes
50
Yes?
60
????????????
MC
Against CC Legislation
100
Bill
No?
SQ
No
Voting No on a
Compromise
How do legislators decide
how to vote?
Constituency:
Ideas
Ideology:
Interests
Party: Institutions
Achieving Policy Change:
Three I’s
• Ideas
• Interests
• Institutions
Ideas:
Convincing the Constituency
American Clean
Energy and
Security Act
Cap and Trade
Clean Energy Jobs
and American
Power Act
Pollution Reduction
and Investment
Program
More Moral Respondents don’t Support
Compromise as much
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
Moral
50%
Mid
40%
Not Moral
30%
20%
10%
0%
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Difference in Support for Compromise vs. No-Compromise
6
Interests
• Help for auto industry
• Agricultural issues
addressed
• Funding for “clean coal”
Institutions
Institutions
Achieving Policy Change:
Three I’s
• Ideas
• Interests
• Institutions
Barbara Boxer
0
50
Yes
Yes?
60
????????????
100
No?
No
• Party: Democrat
• Ideology: 100 from LCV
• Constituency:
– “The Pew Charitable Trusts reports
that 10,000 new clean energy
businesses were launched in
California from 1998 to 2007. During
that period, clean energy investments
created more than 125,000 jobs and
generated jobs 15 percent faster than
the California economy as a whole. “
Introduced the new legislation in the Senate
Orrin Hatch
0
50
Yes
Yes?
60
????????????
100
No?
No
• Party: Republican
• Ideology: 18 from LCV
• Constituency:
– Rural
– Uses coal
“The National Rural Electric Cooperative Association estimates that my state
of Utah will be the hardest hit by a cap-and-trades scheme, raising our power
rates by a whopping 70 percent.”
Max Baucus
0
50
Yes
Yes?
60
????????????
100
No?
No
• Party: Democrat
• Ideology: 67 from LCV
• Constituency:
– 65% of MT electricity
from coal
– Purple state?
Wants: provisions benefiting MT power cooperatives