• General Circulation Models or Global Climate Models
• Atmospheric Ocean GCMs (AOGCMs)
• Modeling groups worldwide have developed GCMs
• IPCC assesses impacts of projected increases in gg and consequences for 21st Century
podcast
• New models use range of gg
emission scenarios (RCPs :
Representative Concentration
Pathways)
• GG concentration trajectories;
represent a range of climate
outcomes
2100
RF
relative
to 1750
RCP2.6
2.6
RF peaks and
declines
RCP4.5
4.5
RF stabilizes
by 2100
RCP6.0
6.0
RF doesn’t
peak by 2100
RCP8.5
8.5
RF doesn’t
peak by 2100
• Temperature
• Sea Level
• Water Cycle
• Carbon Cycle
• Ocean
• Climate Change Stabilization,
Commitment and Irreversibility
• Cryosphere
1. Global surface temperature change by 2100:
exceed +1.5°C (relative to 1850 – 1900)
WHAT’S THE BIG DEAL ABOUT 1.5 DEGREES???
2. Warming will continue beyond 2100
3. Warming will still show variability and will not be regionally uniform
4. Increase of global mean surface temperatures for 2081–2100 (late 21st Century)
relative to 1986–2005 is projected to be:
0.3°C to 1.7°C
1.1°C to 2.6°C
1.4°C to 3.1°C
2.6°C to 4.8°C
Different RCPs
6. Arctic region will warm more
rapidly than the global mean
7. warming over land greater
than over the ocean
8. more frequent hot and fewer
cold temperature extremes
over most land areas
9. heat waves will occur with a
higher frequency and duration.
Occasional cold winter
extremes will continue to occur
IPCC
• Changes in the global water cycle will not be uniform. The contrast in precipitation
between wet and dry regions and between wet and dry seasons will increase.
1. high latitudes and the equatorial Pacific Ocean are likely to experience an increase in
annual mean precipitation by the end of 21st century
2. mid-latitude and subtropical dry regions, mean ppt will likely decrease
3. mid-latitude wet regions, mean ppt will likely increase
4. Extreme precipitation events over most of the mid-latitude land masses and wet
tropical regions become more intense and more frequent
5. area experiencing monsoon systems will increase over the 21st century.
(While monsoon winds are likely to weaken, monsoon
precipitation is likely
to intensify )
6. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will remain the dominant mode of interannual
variability in the tropical Pacific
IPCC
• “global ocean will continue to warm during the 21st century. Heat will penetrate
from the surface to the deep ocean and affect ocean circulation”.
1. strongest surface ocean warming in tropical and Northern Hemisphere subtropical
regions.
warming in the top 100 meters: 0.6°C to 2.0°C
2. At greater depth the warming in the Southern Ocean.
1000 m : 0.3°C to 0.6°C
AMOC will undergo collapse
in the 21st century.
animation
• Arctic sea ice cover will continue to shrink and thin; Northern Hemisphere spring
snow cover will decrease during the 21st century as global mean surface
temperature rises. Global glacier volume will further decrease”.
1. Year-round reductions in Arctic sea ice extent are projected by the end of the 21st
century
43% to 94% in September and from 8% to 34% in February
Arctic sea ice