Truce or transformation?
Duncan Morrow
Community Relations Council
Northern Ireland
Unionist/Protestant
Nationalist/Catholic
65%---55%
35%-45%
Loyalist
Resistance
A state of antagonism
•
•
•
•
•
Different experiences of the state. law and justice
Fear is rational, defining the limits of trust, the requirement to resist and
the discourse of politics
Separation (institutional, social and physical) – structured by fear,
generating solidarity and structuring memory and meaning
Culture as antagonism – religion, sport, symbols
Collapse of critical categories: Crime, violence, democracy, rule of law
(including HR), citizenship, equality
•
The ‘community’ as the locus social cohesion, not the state nor the person
•
Failure of class and economics to penetrate politics
Unionist
Nationalist
‘Homeland Security’ and the need for defence justify the removal of rights and
segregation, especially in housing and education.
Paramilitary formations emerge understanding themselves as defensive forces.
Because ‘they’ are the cause, political progress requires ‘them’ to change
Peace with the ‘evil’ enemy is easily equated with INjustice.
Nationalist
Unionist
Unionist
Sinn Fein
USA
EU
Core Values:
Consent,
Equality and
Human Rights
Bridging Social Capital
Purely political means
Rule of Law
Power-sharing
Loyal
Disloyal
1.7m
Unionist
Nationalist
They used to be the problem
Now
‘
They are our permanent partner
The politics of paradox
Truce or transformation?
Unionist
Nationalist
Violence is contained
Suspicion and fear underpin social choices
Antagonism structures community
Partnership is built-in to politics
Sharing is ‘the new black’
Sharing is nobody’s aspiration
Peace and Justice must be pursued together
Justice requires punishing the guilty
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
per cent
% believing that relations between Protestants and
Catholics are better now than 5 years ago (NILTS)
Year
Protestant
Catholic
No religion
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
per cent
% believing that relations between Protestants and
Catholics will be better in 5 years time(NILTS)
Year
Protestant
Catholic
No religion
Overlap between nationality and religion
(NILTS 2007)
Catholic
Protestant
Other
All
British
4
33
2
39
Irish
26
2
<1
29
10
14
1
25
2
4
1
7
NI
Other
% saying they would prefer to live in a mixedreligion neighbourhood (NILTS)
80
70
60
50
40
Year
Protestant
Catholic
No religion
20
07
20
06
20
05
20
04
20
03
20
02
20
01
20
00
19
99
19
98
19
96
19
95
19
93
19
91
30
20
10
0
19
89
per cent
100
90
100
90
80
70
60
Year
Protestant
Catholic
No religion
20
07
20
06
20
05
20
04
20
03
20
02
20
01
20
00
19
99
19
98
19
96
19
95
19
93
19
91
50
40
30
20
10
0
19
89
per cent
% saying they would prefer to send their
children to a mixed-religion school (NILTS)
The costs of antagonism








Antagonism is about everything= policy paralysis
Endemic paramilitarism – security above all
Deterrence of investment and migration
Duplication of services
Distorted labour markets
Disruption of tourism
Poverty and violence
Quality of life
Challenges to change
•Politics
•The limits of political commitment
•A culture of political opposition
•The risks of serious leadership in public policy
•The weakness of the state – control of territory
•Economics
•Vested interest in segregation
•Paramilitarism and segregation as economics
•Scale and scope
•Culture
•Antagonism as our culture
Determinants of change






International political pressure/assistance
Economics of partnership
There is no alternative
Leadership and risk
Deliberate Shared Space – Utility,
Location, Design and Management
Education and Youthwork
Sources of Change
• Post-holocaust Europe – violence and integration
• Travel and technology – globalisation
• Migration and economics
 From poverty and emigration to wealth and
immigration and back again
 Migration
 More Muslims than Methodists
• Social Cohesion and integration across Europe
Interventions for change
• Shared Institutions –
Politics, Local Government,
Police, Integrated Schools
Umbrella Groups (NICVA,
RCN).
• Projects of Common Interest –
Childcare,
Social Enterprise, City Centre Management
• Chequebook Partnership –
PEACE, Government
• Promoting Bridging Capital -
IFI, EU, CRC
Targeting Division in practice
• Engaging core institutions – Trade Unions, Churches, Sport, Arts
• Hard to reach groups
• Third party mediation capacity
• Difficult conversations – democracy, justice and freedom
• Conflict Management - crisis intervention and high risk
engagement
• Victims work
• Residential capacity
• Leadership Development
• Resources Development
Opportunities for influence
•Models of Practice
•Partnership
•Rule of Law
•Policy Advocacy
•Research and Publications
•Resource Development
•Events
The past obstructs the future
Ongoing segregation
The weakness of shared
aspiration
Paramilitary structures
The challenge to consociation – the
road to equality is not an equal one
• How do political parties deliver to ’the others’ without damaging
their own voter base?
• Equality will require diverse solutions - Change has emphasised the
difference between loyalist and nationalist communities not generated
similarity.
• Good Relations does not mean instant harmony – rather it means
developing a culture which can debate and decide these issues
honestly, on the basis of evidence not political allegiance.
January 2003: Launch of Consultation
September 2003: Over 10,000 people respond
January 2004: Clear preference for increased government commitment
March 2005: Launch of Strategy document
September 2007: Dead on arrival?
Programme for Government
• commitment to ‘a shared and better future’ –
14 times within the document
• contained within the First and Deputy First
Minister’s foreword
• part of Minister’s launch of budget 2008-11
Truce to transformation
•
The acceptable level of division
•
War guilt and reconciliation
•
Imagining the scale of change
•
Plausibility and desirability
•
•
International audience versus political
base
The impossibility of failure