GDP 23.5.2011(file1.1)

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Latest developments of compiling
Gross Domestic Product of Hong Kong
Speakers:
Ms Sharon NG, Senior Statistician
Miss Gloria MA, Senior Statistician
Miss Winnie TAM, Statistician
Ms Jasmin LEE, Statistician
政府統計處
Census and Statistics Department
1
Contents
(I)
Fundamental concepts and uses of GDP
(II) Methods and data sources for compiling GDP
(III) Chain volume measures of GDP
(IV) Commonly asked questions on the concepts of GDP
(V) Q&As
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Census and Statistics Department
2
(I) Fundamental concepts and
uses of GDP
政府統計處
Census and Statistics Department
3
What is Gross Domestic Product (GDP)?
 Gross Domestic Product (GDP): measure of the total
value of production (product) of all resident producing
units of a country or territory (domestic) in a specified
period, before deducting allowance for consumption of
fixed capital (gross).
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Census and Statistics Department
4
International statistical standards
for the compilation of GDP
1993 System of National Accounts (SNA)
 ensure GDP statistics compiled by
different economies are based on
consistent concept, coverage and
standardised framework
 ensure international compatibility of
GDP data
政府統計處
Census and Statistics Department
5
Three approaches for
compiling GDP
政府統計處
Census and Statistics Department
6
Supply
Three approaches
to measure GDP
Income
Demand
1.
Production measure of GDP ( sum of value added of all
economic activities)
2.
Income measure of GDP (sum of compensation of
employees and gross operating surplus of entrepreneurs)
3.
Expenditure measure of GDP (final expenditures on
consumption, capital formation, and exports less imports)
政府統計處
Census and Statistics Department
7
Given there can be 3 alternative approaches
to compile GDP, are we supposed to have 3
figures of GDP or one single figure of GDP?
In theory
GDP estimates by the 3
approaches should be the
same
In practice
Statistical discrepancy
exists, as different data
sources are used for
different approaches
政府統計處
Census and Statistics Department
Supply
Income
Demand
8
Availability of GDP statistics in Hong Kong
 Expenditure-based GDP
- Annual series from 1961
- Quarterly series from 1973

 Production-based GDP
- Annual series traced back to 1980
- Quarterly series from 2000

 Income-based GDP
- Once compiled for 1970 - 1980,
but had discontinued since 1981

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9
Which approach is adopted for compiling
and presenting the GDP figures?
Hong Kong
GDP(E) as the headline GDP, supplemented by
GDP(P)
US
GDP(E) as the headline GDP
Singapore
GDP(P) as the headline GDP, supplemented by
GDP(E)
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Uses of GDP
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Why is GDP so important?
 Measure of economic growth
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Census and Statistics Department
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GDP is commonly used for charting the
economic growth of an economy
 Measured by change in the volume measure
of GDP over time (growth rate in real terms)
 Positive growth : expansion of economic
activities
 Negative growth : contraction of economic
activities
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13
GDP as an indicator for measuring the
economic growth
Year-on-year percentage change
- GDP in real terms of a quarter compared with that of the same
quarter last year
e.g. In the first quarter of 2011, the GDP increased by 7.2% in
real terms over a year earlier.
[ GDP in real terms for Q1 2011 - 1] x 100%
GDP in real terms for Q1 2010
= [ 438,525* - 1] x 100% = 7.2%
408,926*
* In chained (2009) HK$Mn
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14
GDP as an indicator for measuring the
economic growth (Cont’d)
Seasonally adjusted GDP series
 Seasonally adjustment: remove the seasonal
effects which repeat each year in a systematic
manner
 Quarter-to-quarter percentage change
- seasonally adjusted GDP of a particular
quarter compared with that of last quarter
- capture turning point more promptly
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15
Economic growth cycles in Hong Kong tracked by
the real growth of GDP
HK GDP real growth rate (%)
20
15
10
5
0
-5
1
2
3
4
-10
1962
1969
1976
1983
1990
1997
5
2004
2010
Average real growth each year
1962-1970: 8.8%
1991-2000: 3.9%
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1971-1980: 9.0%
2001-2010: 4.0%
1981-1990: 6.7%
16
Economic slow-down in the late-1960s
HK GDP real growth rate (%)
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
1
0
1962
1969
1976
1983
1990
1997
2004
2010
1967 social unrest
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Census and Statistics Department
17
Economic slow-down in the mid-1970s
HK GDP real growth rate (%)
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
2
0
1962
1969
1976
1983
1990
1997
2004
2010
1974-75 Oil Crisis
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Census and Statistics Department
18
Economic slow-down in the mid-1980s
HK GDP real growth rate (%)
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
3
0
1962
1969
1976
1983
1990
1997
2004
2010
1985 global slow down in external trade
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Census and Statistics Department
19
Economic down-turn in the late-1990s
HK GDP real growth rate (%)
20
15
10
5
0
-5
4
-10
1962
1969
1976
1983
1990
1997
2004
2010
1997/98 Asian Economic Crisis
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Census and Statistics Department
20
Economic down-turn in the late-2000s
HK GDP real growth rate (%)
20
15
10
5
0
-5
5
-10
1962
1969
1976
政府統計處
Census and Statistics Department
1983
1990
1997
2004
Global financial tsunami in
latter part of 2008
2010
21
Uses of different measures of GDP
 Production measure
-
Indicate the relative contribution of different economic
activities to the total GDP
 Income measure
-
Study the relative shares of compensation of employees and
gross operating surplus of companies
 Expenditure measure
-
Analyse the relative economic significance of household,
government and investment expenditure
Indicate the degree of external orientation of an economic
territory
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Census and Statistics Department
22
(II) Methods and data sources
for compiling GDP
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Census and Statistics Department
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Statistical system for GDP
Establishment
survey
Household
survey
Trade
statistics
GDP
Gov’t
Account
Price data
Admin. data
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24
Data sources for compilation of GDP(E)
Component
Data sources
1. Private consumption expenditure (PCE) = CXDM + REA - NXDM
Consumption expenditure in
domestic market
(CXDM) - goods
Monthly Survey of Retail Sales
CXDM - services
Quarterly Survey of Restaurant Receipts and
Purchases; government revenue statistics;
administrative data from HK Jockey Club, MTR,
bus companies, ferry companies
Expenditure of residents
abroad (REA)
Household surveys on expenditure abroad;
Immigration Department
Expenditure of non-residents in Data from Hong Kong Tourism Board (HKTB)
the domestic market (NXDM)
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25
Data sources for compilation of GDP(E) (Cont’d)
Component
Data sources
2. Government consumption
expenditure (GCE)
= CE + Purchase - Sales
General revenue accounts; income and
expenditure data from quasi-government
institutions (e.g. HKTB, HKMA, HA, etc)
3. Gross domestic fixed capital formation (GDFCF)
Cost of ownership transfer
Stamp duties collected by IRD; no. of property
transfer cases registered with the Land Registry
Building and construction
Quarterly Survey of Construction Output; data
from government accounts,
quasi-government institutions and public
corporations (e.g. MTR, AA, etc)
Machinery, equipment and
computer software
Trade data; data from government accounts,
quasi-government institutions and public
corporations; data from economic surveys
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26
Data sources for compilation of GDP(E) (Cont’d)
Component
Data sources
4. Changes in inventories
Quarterly Survey of Industrial Production;
Quarterly Survey of Services Industries; Monthly
Survey of Retail Sales; data on hydrocarbon oil
from Electrical and Mechanical Services
Department
5. Exports and imports of goods
Trade data
6. Exports and imports of
services (e.g. transportation,
travel, trade services,
financial services)
Data from HKTB and Immigration Department;
Survey of Imports and Exports of Services;
household surveys on expenditure abroad
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27
Data sources for compilation of GDP(P)
Economic Activity
Data sources
1. Agriculture, fishing, mining
and quarrying
• Agriculture and fishing:
Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation
Department;
• Mining and quarrying:
Annual Survey of Economic Activities (ASEA)
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28
Data sources for compilation of GDP(P) (Cont’d)
Economic Activity
Data sources
2. Manufacturing
3. Electricity, gas and water supply, and
waste management
4. Construction
5. Import/export, wholesale and retail
trades
6. Accommodation and food services
ASEA
7. Transportation, storage, postal and
courier services
8. Information and communications
9. Financing and insurance
10. Real estate, professional and business
services
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29
Data sources for compilation of GDP(P) (Cont’d)
Economic Activity
Data sources
11. Public administration*,
social and personal services
• Government revenue accounts;
• Income and expenditure data from Quasigovernment institutions (e.g. HKTB);
• Administrative records for government subvented
non-profit institutions;
• Financial reports of private non-profit institutions;
and
• ASEA
*
Includes general administration, public order and safety services and other services
provided by government departments which are not engaged in market activities
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30
Data sources for compilation of GDP(P) (Cont’d)
Economic Activity
Data sources
12. Ownership of premises*
• Rating and Valuation Department;
• Administrative records of the government;
and
• A specially conducted survey on premises
owned and occupied by private non-profit
institutions
* Ownership of premises includes:
(1) leasing services provided to tenants by owners of premises in their individual
capacity; and
(2) leasing services which owners of premises like households, government and
private non-profit institutions, provided to themselves
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Census and Statistics Department
31
Compilation of value added of the manufacturing sector
based on data collected in ASEA
Major activity: Production of goods
GO
IC
1. Value of all sales of goods
produced (adjusted by the value of
changes in inventories of finished
goods and work-in progress)
1. Expenses on materials, supplies for
production and business operation
2. Receipts for industrial work and
industrial services rendered to other
establishments
3. Resale margin (value of resale of
goods in same condition as
purchased – purchases of goods for
resale)
4. Rental income
.
.
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2. Payments for sub-contract work
3. Rentals (e.g. land and buildings,
machinery, equipment and vehicles)
4. Payments for repair and
maintenance services
5. Expenses on fuels, electricity and
water
6. Transport, travelling and courier
service expenses
.
.
32
Compilation of value added of the construction sector
based on data collected in ASEA
Major activity: Construction of both buildings and other structures and
facilities undertaken by the construction contractors
GO
IC
1. Net value of construction work
performed (i.e. total of overall
contract sum for all main
contractors and fee sub-contractors
less value of payment for fee subcontract work recorded)
1. Expenses on consumption of building
materials and supplies on sites
2. Expenses on consumption of sundry
supplies in business operation
3. Rentals (e.g. land and buildings,
machinery, equipment and vehicles)
4. Payments for repair and maintenance
services
5. Expenses on fuels, electricity and
water
6. Expenses on other services such as
transportation, technical consultancy,
insurance, etc.
2. Commissions and fees for
consultancy or other services
rendered
3. Rental income and letting out of
machinery and equipment without
operator
:
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:
33
Compilation of value added of the transport sector
based on data collected in ASEA
Major activity: Provision of services in carrying passengers and goods
GO
IC
1. Freight revenue
1. Contract work (e.g. rental of vehicles
with drivers)
2. Fuels, materials and supplies used in
business operation
3. Agency fees, commissions and
brokerage fees
4. Rentals (e.g. land and buildings,
machinery, equipment and vehicles)
5. Payments for repair and maintenance
services
6. Other operating expenses such as
advertising, transportation, legal
services and insurance etc.
.
.
2. Passenger revenue
3. Charter hire receipts
4. Rentals from letting land and
buildings
5. Other business receipts such as
agency fees, parking fees, and tolls,
etc.
.
.
.
.
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Census and Statistics Department
34
Compilation of value added of the import/export,
wholesale and retail trades sector
based on data collected in ASEA
Major activity: Distribution of goods
GO
IC
1. Gross margin realised on trading*
(i.e. value of sales of goods less
total value of purchase of goods for
sale and adjusted by the value of
changes in stock of goods for sale)
1. Expenses on materials, supplies
used in business
2. Rentals (e.g. land and buildings,
machinery, equipment and vehicles)
3. Payments for repair and
maintenance services
4. Expenses on fuels, electricity and
water
5. Transport, travelling and courier
service expenses
2. Commissions, fees and other
services charge
3. Rental income
.
.
.
.
* Expenditures on purchases of goods for sales are not included in the intermediate
consumption and are deducted from the sales value in calculating the gross margin on
sales of goods.
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35
Compilation of value added of the financing sector
based on data collected in ASEA
Major activity: Provision of financial intermediation services
GO
IC
1. Net interest receipts (i.e. interest
received less interest paid)
1. Service charges, commissions and
fees paid in respect of banking and
financial services
2. Commissions and fees received
3. Services charges received (e.g.
credit, bills transactions and loans
and investment banking services)
4. Rental income
.
.
.
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2. Expenses on office stationery and
supplies
3. Rentals (e.g. land and buildings,
machinery, equipment and vehicles)
4. Expenses on advertising, legal,
accounting, communications,
transportation and other services
.
.
36
Latest developments in the compilation of GDP(P)
 Starting from the reference year of 2009, the presentation
of GDP(P) has been changed from Hong Kong Standard
Industrial Classification (HSIC) V1.1 to V2.0.
 To align with the International Standard Industrial
Classification of All Economic Activities Revision 4
(ISIC Rev. 4)
 This can better reflect the structural changes of the local
economy and enhance international comparability of
related statistics.
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37
Latest developments in the compilation of GDP(P)
(Cont’d)
 Major changes in classification under HSIC V2.0
(1) Combination of the sectors of “agriculture and fishing” and
“mining and quarrying”;
(2) Introduction of a new sector of “information and
communications”;
(3) Splitting of the two sectors of “wholesale, retail and
import/export trades, restaurants and hotels” and “financing,
insurance, real estate and business services” into four.
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38
Latest developments in the compilation of GDP(P)
(Cont’d)
 The valuation of value added has been changed from factor
cost to basic prices to follow international standard. This can
better reflect the prices actually paid and received by the
producers.
 The basic price, measures the amount retained by the
producer, is the price most relevant for the producer’s
decision making.
 The valuation at basic prices had been adopted by most of the
statistically advanced economies, like the UK, Australia,
Canada and Singapore. The adoption of such approach in
Hong Kong will enhance the international comparability of
Hong Kong’s estimates.
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39
Factor cost vs Basic prices vs Market prices
Value added at basic prices
= Value added at factor cost + Taxes on production
(e.g. government rent and rates and
business registration tax)
Value added at market prices
= Value added at basic prices + Taxes on products*
(e.g. alcoholic beverages, tobacco
and hydrocarbon oil)
* Payable per unit of goods and services
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40
Factor cost
Value
added at
factor cost
80
vs
Basic prices
(Cont’d)
Taxes on
production
+
12
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Census and Statistics Department
Market prices
Taxes on
products
+
Value added
at basic prices
80 + 12 = 92
vs
8
GDP at
market
prices
=
100
=
GDP at
market
prices
100
Taxes on
products
+
8
41
How is ‘Implicit Price Deflator’
of GDP compiled?
Implicit price deflators (IPD) of GDP and its
expenditure components
=
GDP at current prices
GDP in volume terms
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Census and Statistics Department
x 100
42
IPD of GDP
In contrast to a deflator , an implicit price deflator
is NOT an input for GDP in volume terms (a
misconception)
 GDP in volume terms =

IPD of GDP
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Census and Statistics Department
=
Current price GDP
IPD of GDP
Current price GDP
GDP in volume terms
43
Implicit Price Deflator of GDP (IPD) and
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
CPI
 a measure of price changes encompassing
goods and services purchased by households
IPD of GDP
 a broad measure of economy-wide inflation,
encompassing a wide varieties on goods and
services for consumption, capital formation
(investment), exports and imports
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44
(III) Chain volume measures
of GDP
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45
Chain Volume Measures of GDP
C&SD has replaced the constant price measures
by the chain volume measures of GDP
Why?
– Align with the latest international statistical
guidelines
– Provide a better measure of the real growth rate of
the aggregate economic activity in an economy as
compared with the constant price volume measure
of GDP
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46
Basic concepts of the volume
measures of GDP
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47
Change over time in the value of GDP can be
factored into two components (v = p x q)

Change in prices of goods and services
$ 10
each
政府統計處
Census and Statistics Department
$20
2008
2009
2010
48
Value in 2009 increases by 20%, purely due to inflation
$ 12
each
$ 10
each
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Census and Statistics Department
$24
$20
2008
2009
2010
49
Value in 2010 surges by 50%, as prices increase from
$12 to $18
$ 18
each
$36
$ 12
each
$ 10
each
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Census and Statistics Department
$24
$20
2008
2009
2010
50
 Change in their volumes
Changes in value at price fixed at $10 reflect changes in
volume
$ 10
each
$20
$40
2008
2009
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Census and Statistics Department
$60
2010
51
Base year vs Reference year
What is the base year?
 Base year is the year from which the price structures
are used as weights for deriving the aggregate volume
measures
 For constant price volume index, the base year is
selected arbitrarily and updated at a 5-10 yearly
interval
 For chain volume index, the base year is always the
preceding year in principle, i.e. t-1
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52
Base year vs Reference year
(Cont’d)
What is the reference year?
 Reference year is the year to which the time series of the
volume measures has been referenced
 Unique for chain volume index, no need in constant price
volume index
 The reference year provides a reference time point for
linking up the pairs of preceding-year weighted shortterm volume indices in order to obtain a continuous time
series
 For the reference year, the chain volume index is equal to
100
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53
Compilation of
volume measures of GDP
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Census and Statistics Department
54
International guidelines on
volume measures of GDP
C&SD follows the 1993 System of National
Accounts (SNA)
The 1968 SNA: fixed-weighted volume index
approach – constant price measure of GDP
The 1993 SNA: annually re-weighted chain
linking approach – chain volume measure of
GDP
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55
Constant price measures of GDP
 Adopt the price structure of a fixed base year (say 2000)
as weights for aggregating the volumes of components in
compiling the volume measure of the GDP aggregate
(hence the concept of “fixed-weighted”)
 Update the base year (rebasing) once every 5 or 10 years
 Link up the constant price series on different base years
(1966, 1973, 1980, 1990 and 2000) to obtain a continuous
time series of the volume measures of GDP and its
components (linking or splicing method)
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56
Chain volume measures of GDP
 Volume measure of GDP for a particular year (e.g. 2010)
adopts the price structure of the preceding year (2009) as
weights for aggregating the volumes of components
(hence the concept of “annually re-weighted”)
 Links up the pairs of preceding-year weighted short-term
volume indices and chains to a reference time point (the
reference year) to obtain a continuous time series of the
chain volume indices of GDP and its components (hence
the concept of “chain linking”)
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57
Chained dollar estimates of GDP
and components
 Further convert the chain volume index series into
chained dollar series by multiplying the current price
value in the reference year (e.g. 2009) by the chain
volume index
 The resultant series is referred to as the chained (2009)
dollar estimates (i.e. chain volume measures expressed
in dollar terms)
 The chain linking process is carried out for GDP and its
components independently in order to preserve the
historical real growth rates
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Census and Statistics Department
58
Illustration of compilation method of
the chain volume measures of GDP
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59
The price of mobile phone falls in 2008 and 2009
Price level
Price change
2007
2008
2009
2008
2009
$1,800
$1,600
$1,500
-11.1%
-6.3%
$50
$52
$53
+4.0%
+1.9%
$900
$1,100
$800
+22.2%
-27.3%
Food price is stable whereas price of clothing is fluctuating
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Census and Statistics Department
60
Mobile phone records fast volume growth
Quantity
Volume change
2007
2008
2009
2008
2009
10
12
15
+20.0%
+25.0%
200
210
225
+5.0%
+7.1%
15
16
17
+6.7%
+6.3%
Volume growth of food and clothing is moderate
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61
Constant (2007) price estimates of the aggregate
for 2008 and 2009 are calculated by aggregating
components revalued at prices of the fixed base
year of 2007
2008
Price in fixed
base year
2009
2007
Quantity in
2008
Value at 2007
prices
Quantity in
2009
Value at 2007
prices
$1,800
12
$21,600
15
$27,000
$50
210
$10,500
225
$11,250
$900
16
$14,400
17
$15,300
Aggregate
政府統計處
Census and Statistics Department
$46,500
$53,550
(+15.2%)
62
Chain volume estimate of the aggregate for
2009 is calculated by aggregating components
revalued at preceding-year (2008) prices
2008
2009
Price in
2008
Quantity in
2008
Value at 2008
prices
Quantity in
2009
Value at 2008
prices
$1,600
12
$19,200
15
$24,000
$52
210
$10,920
225
$11,700
$1,100
16
$17,600
17
$18,700
Aggregate
$47,720
$54,400
(+14.0%)
Contribution of fast growing mobile phone to the aggregate is reduced as a
result of adopting more up-to-date (2008) price weights
政府統計處
Census and Statistics Department
63
Illustration of chain linking of data series
Year
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Values
at current prices ($)
1,000
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,600
3.4
14.0
7.7
6.7
1,160
1,140
1,300
1,500
Year-on-year
change in prices (%)
Values
at preceding year prices ($)
Short-term volume index
100
(preceding year = 100)
116
100
95
100
Chained volume index
(2006=100)
100
Real growth rate (%)
Values
at chained (2006) dollars ($)
政府統計處
Census and Statistics Department
1,000
100
100
107
116
110
110
118
16.0
-5.0
0
7.1
1,160
1,102
1,102
1,181
64
Merits of the chain volume
measure of GDP over the
constant price measure
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Census and Statistics Department
65
1. Better accommodate changes in product mix

Due to change in product mix, price structures in the
base year (if fixed) become progressively less relevant
over time, in particular for periods which are distant
from the base year (old products disappear from the
markets to be replaced by new products)

In chain volume measure, overlapping of products
between 2 consecutive years is largest
1980
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Census and Statistics Department
1995
2000
2005
2007
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2. Take account of latest price structures

Divergence in price movements of different products
e.g. prices of information and communication
technology products such as mobile phones and
personal computers have fallen or increased at a
slower pace whereas energy prices have accelerated
in recent years

Chain volume measures use information updated
every year to give each component the most relevant
weights, thus providing a better measure of the real
growth of the GDP aggregate
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Census and Statistics Department
67
3. More accurately portrait the changing
economic conditions

Changes in the Hong Kong economy (and elsewhere)
have speeded up in the last decade

In times of dramatic economic changes and volatility
of relative prices and the associated volume changes of
different components (e.g. consumption, investment,
external trade etc.), updating the base year once every
several years may no longer be sufficient to reflect the
changing economic environment

Chain volume measures can better gauge the
contributions of components to the real growth of the
GDP aggregate
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Census and Statistics Department
68
(IV) Commonly asked questions
on the concepts of GDP
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Census and Statistics Department
69
Q1. How does the occurrence of natural disaster
affect GDP?
 GDP is a measure of total value of production of all
resident producing units of a country or territory in a
specified period.
 Destruction of buildings and structures after natural
disaster is not production activity; hence it will not affect
GDP. It will reduce the stock of fixed assets in the balance
sheet.
 If natural disaster affects current production activities of
resident producing units, then GDP will be affected.
 E.g. (1) If electricity supply network is destroyed leading
to suspension of manufacturing activities, then this will
reduce GDP; (2) Re-building works after natural disaster
will increase building and construction activities and this
will be increase GDP.
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Census and Statistics Department
70
Q2. How is redevelopment projects recorded in
GDP?

Redevelopment projects generally involve two types of economic
activities :
(1)
Construction activity: A construction contractor is engaged to
demolish the old building and build a new building. These
construction activities are covered in Building and Construction
of GDFCF.
(2)
Real estate development activity: The value of the old building and
the payment to contractor are costs to the real estate developer in
the redevelopment project. These costs, in addition to other project
development outlays (e.g. architectural, engineering, and other
professional fees, marketing, brokerage fees etc.), are netted
against the value of the new building.
The gross margin (i.e. value of new building less costs) is included in
Building and Construction of GDFCF.

In sum, the value of the new building less old building is captured
in GDFCF.
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Census and Statistics Department
71
Q3. People regard the purchase of a residential
flat an investment. Is it included in GDFCF
of GDP during the period when the flat is
purchased?
 No.
 The value of the flat has already been included in GDFCF
of GDP previously when the flat was built.
 The purchase of a flat is a transfer of ownership rather
than creation of a new asset. Therefore, no new capital
formation is captured in GDP.
 However, SNA states that costs incurred in the transfer of
ownership of the asset e.g. brokerage fees, legal fees and
stamp duties, are included in GDFCF during the period
when the flat is purchased.
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Census and Statistics Department
72
Q4. How is donation (say to Community Chest)
recorded in national accounts?
 Donation is a kind of transfer payment. This
means that the party receiving the donation (say
Community Chest) does not provide goods and
services to the donor in return for the donation.
Hence, no production activity is involved and GDP
is not affected.
 Following this concept, GDP in a period will not
increase because of more donation nor decrease
because of less donation in the same period.
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Census and Statistics Department
73
Q5. Is the natural growth of fish in sea included
in the production boundary of GDP?
 The growth of natural resources without human
involvement or direction is not included in the
production boundary.
 According to the System of National Accounts, a
necessary condition for an activity to be treated as
production is that the activity should be carried out
under the responsibility, control and management of a
unit (SNA para. 1.20).
 Therefore, the natural growth of fish in open sea is not
regarded as production whereas the catching of fish in
open sea and the culture of fish in fish ponds or rafts are
regarded as production activities.
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Census and Statistics Department
74
Q6. Should ‘Illegal Transactions’ be included in
GDP?
 In theory, the answer is YES (1993 SNA’s recommendation) due
to the following reasons.
(1) Incomes from illegal production can be spent on purchasing
legal goods and services.
(2) Illegal goods and services can be purchased using incomes
from the legal sources.
(3) Discrepancies will appear in the account if such production is
omitted.
 Practically, reliable estimates are difficult to be produced.
 In Hong Kong, only unlicenced hawkers are included in GDP.
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Census and Statistics Department
75
(V) Q&As
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The End
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