THE KYOTO PROTOCOL AND RUSSIA:
WHAT IS TO BE DONE?
A. Illarionov
Adviser to the President of Russia
National Press Club, Washington, DC
January 30, 2004
© Institute of Economic Analysis
The Kyoto Protocol is discriminatory against Russia
Russia’s total CO2 emissions are lower than
those of other countries not adopting emission limits
Total CO2 emissions in 2000
7
6
Bn t
5
With
limited
emissions
5,5
With
unlimited
emissions
4
2,7
3
2
1,4
1
0
Russia
USA
China
©ИЭА
The Kyoto Protocol is discriminatory against Russia
Russia’s CO2 emissions per capita are lower than
those of other countries not adopting emission limits
CO2 emissions per capita in 2000
109,6
With
100
limited
80 emissions
With
unlimited
emissions
71,4
22,1
Trinidad
and
Tobago
Kuwait
Bahrain
United
Arab
Emirates
Qatar
0
24,1
20,1
18,2
9,8
Virgin
Islands
(U.S.)
20
30,2
15,4
Singapore
40
Australia
37,5
USA
60
Russia
tons
120
©ИЭА
The Kyoto Protocol is discriminatory against Russia
Russia’s CO2 emissions per unit of GDP are lower than
those of other countries not adopting emission limits
With
14,4
limited
emissions
With
unlimited
emissions
8,0
2,2
2,2
2,0
1,9
1,9
Ukraine
Azerbaijan
Brunei
Uzbekistan
1,9
Kuwait
2,3
UAE
Bahrain
Qatar
1,6
Iraq
5,3
Virgin
Islands
(U.S.)
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Russia
kg per PPP $ of GDP
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP in 2000
©ИЭА
The Kyoto Protocol is discriminatory against Russia
Russia’s GDP per capita is lower than
those of other countries not adopting emission limits
With
unlimited
emissions
35,7
31,1
26,7
Qatar
S.Arabia
Oman
Kuwait
Israel
Cyprus
Australia
Singapore
USA
7,9
16,8 14,7
13,2 12,2 11,1
11,0 10,3
Chile
19,7
UAE
21,9
Korea
With limited
emissions
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Russia
thous. PPP 1999 US$
GDP per capita in 2003
©ИЭА
The Russia's Kyoto Cross.
Under the Kyoto Protocol Russia will be a buyer, not a seller of CO2 quotas.
(Actual Russia’s CO2 emissions, conservative forecast
and its Kyoto Protocol limits)
4500
4000
3500
?
Seller
Buyer
Kyoto 2012 limit
2000
1500
Actual
1000
Kyoto 2050 limit
500
0
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
Mln t
3000
2500
Conservative
forecast
©ИЭА
The Russia’s Kyoto Trap.
Under the Kyoto Protocol Russia won’t be able to sell its CO2 quotas.
(Forecast of CO2 quotas market in the EU in 2008-2012)
4000
Potential
Demand
PotentIal Supply
(Превышение
3500 фактической
эмиссии CO2 над
3000 обязательствами
в 1-й фазе КП)
mln t
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
1954
491
EU
EU
+
1617
+
1 813
=
3921
518
Total
Russia
0
1
Central and
Eastern
2
Europe
Ukraine
3
Sequence of purchases according to the EU Directive adopted by the
EU Parliament 02.07.03 and accepted by the EU Council 22.07.03
4
©ИЭА
The Kyoto protocol’s inefficiency.
The Kyoto Protocol is unable to achieve its proclaimed goals.
(The share of the KP Annex B countries in the World’s CO2 emissions)
55
50
47,2
45
40
With Russia
30,4
30
24,2
25
Without Russia
20
15
10
5
1998
1995
1992
1989
1986
1983
1980
1977
1974
1971
1968
1965
1962
1959
1956
1953
0
1950
per cent
35
©ИЭА
The Kyoto Protocol is not universal.
It is backed by the World minority.
The World majority did not adopt the Kyoto Protocol limits.
(The share of the KP Annex B countries in the World aggregates)
40
36,4
32,4
35
per cent
30
25
27,2
24,2
20
15
12,3
10,1
10
5
0
in CO2 Emission
in GDP
1990
in Population
2000
©ИЭА
The Kyoto Protocol puts brakes on economic growth
per cent
GDP growth in 1997-2003
4,5
4,0
3,5
3,0
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
3,1
2,0
17 Pro-Kyoto Developed Economies 11 Non-Kyoto Developed Economies
(EU15, Canada, Japan)
(USA, Australia, Taiwan, Korea,
Hong Kong, Singapore, Israel,
Mexico, Cyprus, Malta)
©ИЭА
The Kyoto Protocol incompatible with economic growth.
CO2 emissions are associated with economic growth
in the mid-income countries (47 countries),1960-2000
GDP annual growth rates, %
8
Doubling GDP
6
4
Kyoto 2012
2
0
Kyoto 2050
-2
y = 0,44x + 1,17
R 2 = 0,71
-4
-6
-3.5
-8
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
CO2 emissions annual growth rates, %
©ИЭА
The Kyoto Protocol is incompatible with poverty reduction.
CO2 emissions are associated with economic growth
in the low-income countries (52 countries),1960-2000
8
GDP annual growth rates, %
6
4
2
0
y = 0,48x + 1,22
R 2 = 0,66
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
СО2 emissions annual growth rates, %
10
15
©ИЭА
The Kyoto Protocol is incompatible with wealth accumulation.
СО2 emission are associated with economic growth
in developed economies, too (38 countries), 1991-2000
GDP annual growth rate, %
7
6
5
4
3
y = 0,53x + 2,05
R 2 = 0,71
2
1
0
-1
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
CO2 emissions annual growth rate, %
©ИЭА
The Kyoto Protocol is unbearably expensive.
The cost of compliance can be as high as 1750 US$ tln
between 1990 and 2100, or 15% of their annual GDP in affected countries
Source: Climate Change 2001 Synthesis Report, IPCC, p.119.
©ИЭА
The Kyoto Protocol is oriented on technological illusions.
It’s impossible to switch away from hydrocarbons
to another energy base in a short period of time
World energy consumption by source of origin
6,8%
2,3%
9,9%
Hydrocarbons
Nuclear
Hydro
Other
81,0%
©ИЭА
The Kyoto protocol is based on flawed science.
Ln(CO2 emission, t)
18
6,00
5,95
5,90
5,85
5,80
5,75
5,70
5,65
5,60
5,55
5,50
5,45
16
14
12
10
8
CO2 emission of athropogenic character, t
1988
1971
1954
1937
1920
1903
1886
1869
1852
1835
1818
1801
1784
1767
1750
6
Ln(CO2 concentration, ppm)
The variation of CO2 concentration can not be explained
by variation in CO2 emissions of anthropogenic character
CO2 concentration, ppm
Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, 2003.
©ИЭА
The Kyoto protocol is based on flawed science.
Global absolute temperature, oC
CO2 concentration, ppm
2000
260
1990
13,6
1980
280
1970
13,7
1960
300
1950
13,8
1940
320
1930
13,9
1920
340
1910
14,0
1900
360
1890
14,1
1880
380
1870
14,2
1860
Global absolute temperature, oC
The variation in temperature can not be explained
by the variation in CO2 concentration
CO2 concentration, ppm
Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, 2003.
©ИЭА
The Kyoto protocol is based on flawed science.
7
14,1
6
5
14,0
4
13,9
3
13,8
2
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
1950
1940
1930
1920
1910
1900
0
1890
13,6
1880
1
1870
13,7
CO2 emission, mln t
14,2
1860
Global absolute temperature,
oC
The variation in temperature can not be explained
by variation in CO2 emissions of anthropogenic character
Global absolute temperature, oC
CO2 emission of anthropogenic character, mln t
Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, 2003.
©ИЭА
The Kyoto Protocol is based on flawed science.
The variation in temperature is positively correlated with variation in CO2
concentration only from 1976-2003. This is the ONLY such sub-period
out of 6 sub-periods between 1860 and 2003
Variation in CO2 concentration and variation in temperature
0,0088
1,57
0,0058
1,5
0,0008
-0,0012
0,5
0,008
0,006
1,01
1,0
0,010
0,26
0,002
0,49
0,32 0,25
0,004
0,000
-0,0030
0,0
degrees C\year
2,0
ppm\year
0,012
0,0105
-0,002
-0,004
1860-1901 1901-1930 1930-1944 1944-1963 1963-1976 1976-2003
Change in CO2 concentration
Change in global temperature
©ИЭА
The very concept of “Global Warming”
critically depends on the time horizon chosen.
It appears reasonable for short-term periods.
Absolute temperature (30 YMA), England, 1659-2002
10,0
9,8
9,6
degrees
9,4
9,2
9,0
y = 0,002x + 8,8467
2
R = 0,5265
8,8
8,6
8,4
8,2
Source: www.met-office.gov.uk.
1992
1976
1960
1944
1928
1912
1896
1880
1864
1848
1832
1816
1800
1784
1768
1752
1736
1720
1704
1688
8,0
©ИЭА
The very concept of “Global Warming”
critically depends on the time horizon chosen.
It appears unproven for longer-term periods.
Absolute temperature (30 YMA), NE Canada (Baffin Island), 752-1992
4,5
4,0
y = -0,0002x + 3,048
2
R = 0,0495
3,5
degrees
3,0
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
Source: World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder, USA.
1961
1902
1843
1784
1725
1666
1607
1548
1489
1430
1371
1312
1253
1194
1135
1076
1017
958
899
840
781
0,0
©ИЭА
The very concept of “Global Warming”
critically depends on the time horizon chosen.
It appears unproven for longer-term periods.
Absolute temperature (30 YMA), Tasmania,1571 BC - 1991 AD
15,8
15,6
15,4
degrees
15,2
15,0
14,8
y = -2E-05x + 15,019
2
R = 0,0057
14,6
14,4
14,2
Source: World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder, USA.
1929
1754
1579
1404
1229
1054
879
704
529
354
179
4
-171
-346
-521
-696
-871
-1046
-1221
-1396
-1571
14,0
©ИЭА
The very concept of “Global Warming” critically depends on the
time horizon chosen. It appears unproven for longer-term periods.
The current “Global Warming” is not unique and is not strongest
in the history of civilization.
Variation in temperature in the last 5000 years
Distribution of Oxygen δ18О in the upper part of the kern from drill GISР2 (last 5000 years)
Source: Grootes, P.M., Stuiver, M., White, J.W.C., Johnsen, S.J., Jouzel J., Comparison of oxygen
isotope records from the GISP and GRIP Greenland ice cores. Nature 366, 1993, pp.552-554.
©ИЭА
о
Temperature anomalies (Со)
The very concept of “Global Warming” critically depends on the
time horizon chosen. It appears unproven for long-term periods.
The current “Global Warming” is not unique and is not strongest
in the history of Earth.
The long-term (M.Milankovitch) climatic cycles for the last 420 000 years.
Source: J.R. Petit et al. (19 authors). Climate and atmospheric history of the past
420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica. -Nature, 399 (1999), 429-436. ©ИЭА
The asserted increase in the frequency
of extraordinary climatic events appears unproven.
Variance in temperature (30 YMA), England, 1659-2002
0,6
0,5
0,4
y = -0,0006x + 0,4267
2
R = 0,2589
0,3
0,2
0,1
Source: www.met-office.gov.uk.
1988
1973
1958
1943
1928
1913
1898
1883
1868
1853
1838
1823
1808
1793
1778
1763
1748
1733
1718
1703
1688
0,0
©ИЭА
The asserted increase in the frequency
of extraordinary climatic events appears unproven.
Variance in temperature (30 YMA), NE Canada (Baffin Island), 752-1992
2,0
1,8
1,6
1,4
y = -8E-05x + 0,7695
R2 = 0,0074
1,2
1,0
0,8
0,6
0,4
0,2
Source: World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder, USA.
1957
1901
1845
1789
1733
1677
1621
1565
1509
1453
1397
1341
1285
1229
1173
1117
1061
1005
949
893
837
781
0,0
©ИЭА
The asserted increase in the frequency
of extraordinary climatic events appears unproven.
Variance in temperature (30 YMA), Tasmania, 1751 BC – 1991 AD
0,8
0,7
0,6
0,5
y = -1E-05x + 0,2099
2
R = 0,0222
0,4
0,3
0,2
0,1
Source: World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder, USA.
1873
1709
1545
1381
1217
1053
889
725
561
397
233
69
-95
-259
-423
-587
-751
-915
-1079
-1243
-1407
-1571
0,0
©ИЭА
Asserted increase in the speed
of the current temperature change appears unproven.
It is not unique and is not strongest in the last 1000 years.
Change in the global temperature over 30 preceding years
©ИЭА
Asserted increase in the speed
of the current temperature change appears unproven.
It is not unique and is not strongest in the last 4000 years.
Change in temperature over 30 preceding years, Tasmania, 1751BC–1991AD
1,0
0,8
y = 1E-07x + 0,0014
2
R = 1E-07
0,6
degrees
0,4
0,2
0,0
-0,2
-0,4
-0,6
-0,8
Source: World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder, USA.
1899
1727
1555
1383
1211
1039
867
695
523
351
179
7
-165
-337
-509
-681
-853
-1025
-1197
-1369
-1541
-1,0
©ИЭА
Mother Nature’s Weapon of Mass Destruction is actually
Global Cooling, not Global Warming.
In the history of civilization climatic optimums are more associated with
prosperity and progress, ice ages – with hardships and catastrophes.
Global absolute temperature (30 YMA), 1000-2003
14,2
New
Climatic
Optimum
14,1
14,0
degrees
13,9
y = -0,0001x + 13,825
2
R = 0,1334
13,8
13,7
Little
Climatic
Optimum
13,6
13,5
Little Ice Age
13,4
13,3
Source: World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder, USA.
1989
1941
1893
1845
1797
1749
1701
1653
1605
1557
1509
1461
1413
1365
1317
1269
1221
1173
1125
1077
1029
13,2
©ИЭА
Mother Nature’s Weapon of Mass Destruction is actually
Global Cooling, not Global Warming.
In the history of humanity climatic optimums are more associated with
prosperity and progress, ice ages – with hardships and catastrophes.
Variation in temperature in the last 5000 years
Distribution of Oxygen δ18О in the upper part of the kern from drill GISР2 (last 5000 years)
Source: Grootes, P.M., Stuiver, M., White, J.W.C., Johnsen, S.J., Jouzel J., Comparison of oxygen
isotope records from the GISP and GRIP Greenland ice cores. Nature 366, 1993, pp.552-554.
©ИЭА