Alaska Conservation Solutions
2008
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
The Greatest Threat
“There is no doubt in my mind
that climate change is one of
the greatest threats facing
humanity today.”
Markku Niskala
Secretary-General of the Red Cross
January 2008
Photo © The Age, Melbourne. All rights reserved
The Greatest Threat
“Things are getting desperate enough now that we need to throw away
our conservatism and just act.”
Dr. Terry Chapin, University of Alaska – Fairbanks
Amanda Byrd/Canadian Ice Service
Global Warming Basics
What do these pollutants do? – Global Fever
Greenhouse gases make the earth too hot, just like:
> sleeping under a heavy blanket in the summertime
> wearing a parka that is too thick
Our atmospheric “blanket” or “parka” is over 35% “thicker”
than it used to be
Thinner blanket
is “just right.”
Thicker blanket
traps too
much heat.
Weather vs. Climate
Weather: The short-term state of the atmosphere -- up to a few days
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Climate:
Long-term averages, frequencies and extremes -- generally 3 to 5 decades
1950
2008
“Choosing shorts or long underwear on a particular day is about weather; the ratio of
shorts to long underwear in the drawer is about climate.”
Charles Wohlforth ~ The Whale and the Supercomputer
Photo courtesy of Parker Rittgers / ADN reader submission
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Weather vs. Climate
“Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.”
Anchorage, AK
January 18, 2009
Mark Twain
Global Warming Basics
Alaska is Ground Zero
Changes in physical and biological systems and
Surface surface
Air Temperature
Trends
1942-2003
temperature
1970-2004
In past 50 years,
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Alaska:
Temperatures have
increased
4oF overall
(National Assessment
Synthesis Team)
Worldwide:
Temperatures have
increased
slightly more
than 1oF
IPCC, 2007
(IPCC, 2007)
Temperature Change oC
1970-2004
Chapman and Walsh, 2004
Chapman and Walsh, 2004
-1.0 -0.2
0.2
1.0 2.0 3.5
Future Temperatures in Alaska
Temperature Measurements
Impact of La Nina in Last 12 Months
Ocean temperature models predict a warm 2008-2009 winter in Alaska
.
NASA
2008
Global Warming Basics
Why has Alaska warmed the most?
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
The Albedo Effect
 Snow and sea ice
reflect 85-90% of sun’s
energy
 Ocean surface and
dark soil reflect only
10-20%
Increased
melting of snow
and sea ice
More dark earth
and ocean surface
is exposed
Land or water
warms faster
(ACIA, 2004)
More of sun’s
heat energy is
absorbed
It’s like wearing a white shirt v. a black shirt
Global Warming Basics
Why has Alaska warmed the most?
Other Factors:
(ACIA 2004)
1) Albedo effect
2) More energy goes directly into warming
than into evaporation
3) Atmosphere layer is thinner
in the Arctic
4) Increased heat transfer from
oceans as sea ice retreats
ACIA Graphic
5) Alterations in atmospheric
and ocean circulation
Temperature Measurements
Impact of La Nina in Last 12 Months
Ocean temperature models predict a warm 2008-2009 winter in Alaska
.
NASA
2008
Impacts in Alaska
2. Animals
3. Wetlands and forests
4. Weather and storms
5. People and culture
Columbia University photo
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
and permafrost
Tony Weyiouanna, Sr
1. Melting ice, glaciers
NOAA photo
Impacts of Warming in Alaska
Impacts in Alaska
1. Melting
Melting Sea Ice
 23% smaller than
previous minimum; 39%
smaller than average
 Ice 50% thinner
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
(D. A. Rothrock et al., 1999)
 Ice only 3 feet thick
in most locations
(NOAA FAQ, 2007)
Arctic Sea Ice Extent, 1978 - 2008
 In September 2007 an area the
size of Florida (69,000 square miles)
melted in six days (NSIDC 2007)
 Humpback whales spotted in
Arctic Ocean for first time in 2007
Impacts in Alaska
1. Melting
The Ice Cap in September
 New minimum:
1.59 million square miles
(4.13 million square km)
September
median ice edge
1979-2000
Sea Ice edge
Sep. 16, 2007
 Previous minimum:
2.05 million square miles
(2005)
 Average minimum:
2.60 million square miles
(1979 – 2000)
1 million square miles is an
area roughly the size of Alaska
and Texas combined, or ten
United Kingdoms (NSIDC, 2007)
Melting Sea Ice: Sept. 2008
Arctic sea ice extent reached annual low on September 12, 2008:
 The second-lowest level ever
 33% less than average minimum from 1979-2000
NSIDC (2008)
Impacts in Alaska
1. Melting
Impacts in Alaska
1. Melting
Melting Sea Ice
 Arctic winter ice 2008: Loss of older,
thicker (12 – 15 ft) ice
 Old ice (6+ years) has declined from
over 20% to about 6%
 Over 70% of ice is first-year
NSIDC (2008)
Impacts in Alaska
Melting Sea Ice
1. Melting
The Arctic Ocean could be ice-free in summer by 2040.
(U.S National Center for Atmospheric Research 2006)
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
“Our research indicates that society can still
minimize the impacts on Arctic ice.”
Dr. Marika Holland, National Center for Atmospheric Research
2000
2040
Impacts in Alaska
1. Melting
Glacial Retreat
McCall Glacier
 The rapid retreat of Alaska’s glaciers
represents 50% of the estimated mass
loss by glaciers through 2004 worldwide
 Alaska’s glaciers are responsible for at
least 9% of the global sea level rise in
the past century (ACIA, 2004)
 Bering Glacier, representing more than
15% of all the ice in Alaska, is melting
twice as fast as previously believed,
releasing approximately 8 trillion gallons
of water per year into the ocean -- or the
equivalent of two Colorado Rivers
1941
1958
USGS photo
2004
2003
Matt Nolan photo
 Loss of over 588 billion cubic yards from
1961 to 1998 (Climate Change, 11/05)
Austin Post photo
(ACIA, 2004)
(Michigan Tech Research Institute, 5/07)
Bruce Molnia photo
Impacts in Alaska
Glacial Retreat
1. Melting
 Accelerated melting of glaciers
and ice caps could add an
additional 4 to 9.5 inches of sea
level rise. (Science 7/07)
 Alaska’s Columbia Glacier
has decreased by
approximately 9 miles since
1980 and thinned by as much
as 1,300 feet.. (Science 7/07)
Impacts in Alaska
1. Melting
Permafrost Thawing
Soil Temperature
at 20m
Soil Temperatures
at Depth
Osterkamp
and
Osterkamp
andRomanovsky
Romanovsky
Franklin
Bluffs
-6C
“All the Observatories show a
substantial warming during
the last 20 years”, causing
permafrost to melt at an
unprecedented rate. (State of the
0
DEPTH
-8C
1987
2003
Average
Deadhorse
Deadhorse
19872003
z
WestDock
Dock
West
Arctic 2006)
-10C
1m
|
|
|
-8 -7
1980
-6
|
-5
1988
TEMPERATURE
|
-4
|
|
-3
-2
1996
|
-1oC
2004
NSIDC
Consequences:
Vladimir Romanovsky photo
 Damage to infrastructure,
lakes, rivers, and forests
 Rising sea levels
 Release of stored carbon
(methane and CO2)
Impacts in Alaska
Animals at Risk
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Polar bears
Walruses
Ice seals
Black guillemots
Kittiwakes
Salmon
Caribou
Arctic grayling
 Rising temperatures
 Shrinking habitat
 Food harder to get
 Expanding diseases
 Competition
2. Animals
Impacts in Alaska
Polar Bears in Peril
 Numbers in western
Hudson Bay have declined
22% in 17 years (U.S. Geological
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Service & Canadian Wildlife Service, 2005)
 87% on sea ice (19791991) vs. 33% on sea ice
(1992-2004) (Monnett et al., 12/05)
 Alaska polar bear
drownings in 2004:
4 documented,
27 estimated total
(U.S. Minerals Management Service, 2004)
 Cannibalism in 2004
(Amstrup et al., 2006)
Photo © environmentaldefense.org. All rights reserved
2. Animals
Impacts in Alaska
Polar Bear Cannibalism
Photos courtesy of Steven Amstrup, USGS
Amstrup et al., Polar Biology - accepted March 27, 2006 © Springer-Verlag 2006
2. Animals
Impacts in Alaska
Polar Bears in Peril
 Cubs perishing (61 cubs per
100 females between 196789; 25 cubs per 100 females
between 1990-2006 ), smaller
skulls and adult starvation
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
(Regehr & Amstrup, 2006)
 Shifting denning sites: 62%
on ice (1985-94); 37% on ice
(1998-2004) (Fischbach et al., 2007)
 USGS predicts the extirpation
of Alaska’s polar bears by
2050, with an overall
elimination of two-thirds of the
global population (USGS, 2007)
 Secretary Kempthorne
proposed listing the polar bear
as threatened
2. Animals
Impacts in Alaska
Walrus Warning Signs
2. Animals
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Female walruses depend on sea ice over the continental shelf
for feeding and nursing platforms
 Abandoned walrus calves:
They were “swimming around
us crying” (Aquatic Mammals 4/06)
 Haulout on Land: Thousands
of walruses on shore in
Alaska in 2007; 40,000 in one
haulout in Russia (AP 10/07)
 Stampeding Deaths: 3,000 to
4,000 stampeding deaths in
Russia in 2007
 Other Concerns: More
energy expended in foraging;
depleted habitat; increased
calf mortality
Photo © Viktor Nikiforov, WWF-Russia
Photo: Corel Corp., Courtesy of www.exzooberance com
Impacts in Alaska
Brown Bears
2. Animals
Factors of Concern:
 Diet impairment: fish and berries (Kenai Brown Bears – fish 90% of diet vs.
black bears 10%)
 Hibernation disturbances for reproducing females (Jan-May)
 2 months to implant
 Cub growth
 Flooding of dens (Sean Farley, ADF&G, 2007)
 Reduction in productivity and survival rates
following salmon decline in Kuskokwim; additional
research underway
(Steve Kovach, FWS, 2007)
Impacts in Alaska
Caribou

The Western Arctic Caribou Herd
shrank by 113,000 (more than 20%)
between 2003 and 2007; mid-winter
warm spells may have played a role
(AP 5/08)

Since 1989, the Porcupine Caribou
Herd has declined at 3.5% per year
to a low of 123,000 animals
in 2001 (ACIA 2004)

Freezing rain coats lichen

Changing rivers

Less tundra
2. Animals
Impacts in Alaska
2. Animals
Dall Sheep
“…we’re going to have declining Dall sheep. We’re losing their habitat.”
Dr. John Morton - Kenai National Wildlife Refuge

Dall sheep live exclusively in alpine tundra

Due to warmer temperatures, the tree line in
the Kenai Mountains has risen at a rate of
about 1 meter/year over the past 50 years
 20% of the tundra above 1,500 ft. has
disappeared, is now shrub or open woodland
(Refuge Notebook, 6/07)
Photo: Tim Craig, Wildlife Biologist BLM
Impacts in Alaska
Muskoxen

Population in northern Alaska and
Canada declined from approximately
700 to 400 (Pat Reynolds, FWS, 2007)
 Risk Factors:
•
Icing events
•
Lower calf production
•
Deeper snow
•
Not highly mobile
•
Increase in disease (e.g. nematode
lungworm, able to complete life
cycle in 1 year v. 2 years)
(Kutz et al., 2004)
2. Animals
Impacts in Alaska
2. Animals
Birds Threatened
Kittlitz’s Murrelet
Declines in Kittlitz’s Murrelet:
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
 Prince William Sound:
97% from 1989 - 2001
 Glacier Bay:
89% from 1991 - 2000
 Kenai Peninsula:
83% since 1976
(BirdLife International, Kittlitz’s Murrelet Species
Fact Sheet, 2006)
Photo © 2004 Gary Luhm. All rights reserved.
Subsistence observations:
 Birds flying higher, farther away
 Lakes and rivers too low
 Fewer birds seen
“ The fate of the Kittlitz’s Murrelet may hinge on
the fate of Alaska’s glaciers, and therefore
Kittlitz’s may be among the world’s first avian
species to succumb to the effects of rising
global temperatures.”
(John F. Piatt, USGS, and Kathy Kuletz, USFWS)
Impacts in Alaska
Alaska Waterfowl
2. Animals
Cackling Hatchlings
 Hatch dates have advanced 5 - 10 days since
1982 in all 5 species studied in Yukon Delta NWR
 Sea-level rise, increased storm frequency and
intensity, and wetland drying will likely cause
dramatic changes in waterfowl communities
Julien Fischer, Scientist, USFWS (2007)
Aleutian Cackling Geese
White Front Goose on Nest
Brandt Geese
Impacts in Alaska
Waterfowl -- Scaup

Population appears to be “in peril”
(Consensus Report, 2006)


Declined from over 7 million (in 1970s)
to 3.39 million (2005) (CR)

Record low in 2006: 3.2 million

70% breed in western boreal forest;
Fastest rate of decline there
(94,000 birds per year from 1978 - 2005) …
“Declines reflect breeding season events.” (CR)
(Ducks Unlimited)
19% wetland loss in Yukon Flats
(1985 - 89 v. 2001 - 03)

Where ponds lose 20% or more surface,
scaup food sources decline (i.e. amphipods,
gastropods and chironomid larvae)
(Corcoran et al., 2007)
2. Animals
Impacts in Alaska
2. Animals
Yukon Chinook Diseased
E.R.Keeley photo
Courtesy of
Dr. R. Kocan
E.R. Keeley photo
 Protozoan parasite Icthyophonus
never found in Yukon salmon
before 1985
 Today, up to 45% of the Yukon’s
Chinook salmon are infected
(Kocan et al., 2004)
Photo: Armed Forces Institute of Pathology
 Infection is causing:
AFIP photo
photo
Kocanphoto
R. Kocan
R.
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Yukon River: Water Temperature



Wastage
Reduced returns to spawning grounds
Mortality
Impacts in Alaska
Kenai Salmon Streams Warming
2. Animals
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Kenai Streams: Days Above Temperature Standard
 Temperatures in
Kenai Peninsula
streams now
consistently exceed
Alaska’s standard to
protect salmon
spawning areas
(13o C/ 55o F)
Source: Cook Inlet Keeper, August 2007
Impacts in Alaska
Smaller Fry in Silted Skilak Lake
2. Animals
Photo: NWS/APRFC, NOAA
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
 Glacial melt has increased
silt in Skilak Lake (major
rearing area for Kenai River
sockeye)
 Less light, plankton
production and food for
salmon fry
 Fry in 2004 were about 50%
smaller than average for the
prior decade; fry in 2005
were 60% smaller
(AK Department of Fish & Game, 2005)
Photo © Adams River Salmon Soc
Impacts in Alaska
Low Pink Salmon Harvests
 ADFG 2006 SE purse seine
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
 Predicated: 52 million
 Actual: 11.6 million
 Low number was due in “large part
to the warmer temperatures of
2004, when the parents of this
season’s mature fish would have
been affected” (ADFG, 2006)
2. Animals
Impacts in Alaska
Exotic Species Appearing
Juneau Empire
“Squid, sharks and barracuda are
among species newly arrived in
Alaska waters.”
Seiners and troll fishermen have
sighted sardines, anchovies, jumbo
squid, sharks, barracuda and large
concentrations of brilliantly hued
open-ocean fish such as pomfret
and opah.
Photo courtesy of the Deep Blue Gallery.
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
September 25, 2005
2005 GOA water temperatures
were 2-3o higher than average.
Juneau Empire, 9/25/05
Photo © Ocean Research, Inc.
2. Animals
Impacts in Alaska
Bering Sea Ecosystem Changing
2. Animals
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
 Change from arctic to subarctic
conditions underway in the
northern Bering Sea
 Prey base for benthic-feeding
gray whales, walrus, and sea
ducks is declining
 North Pacific Fisheries
Management Council cut 2007
catch quotas for pollock by 6%
Image: NASA Earth Observatory
due to fish migrating northward
into cooler waters
Photo courtesy of J. Overland
Gary Luhm
 Scientists predict 40% loss of
Bering Sea Ice by 2050 (USGS, 2007)
NOAA photo
NOAA Photo
Impacts in Alaska
Wetlands and Forests
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Over the last 5 decades, in areas
of the Kenai NWR:
 Open areas decreased by
34%
 Wet areas decreased by
88%
 Water and lakes decreased by
14%
USFWS photo
(Klein, Berg and Dial, 2004)
8-14,000 year old sphagnum peat
bogs are drying out and becoming
shrub lands
(Ed Berg, Kenai Nat. Wildlife Refuge)
USFWS photo courtesy of Ed Berg
3. Wetlands and Forests
Impacts in Alaska
3. Wetlands and Forests
Disappearing & Shrinking Ponds
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Disappearance of Ponds since 1950’s (Riordan et al., 2006)
Study Area
% Decrease in
Number of Ponds
% Decrease in
Area of Ponds
Copper River Basin
Minto Flats SGR
Innoko Flats NWR
Yukon Flats NWR
54 %
36 %
30 %
10 %
28 %
25 %
31 %
18 %
Based on Inventory of 10,000 closed-basin ponds
Impacts in Alaska
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Forest Decline: White Spruce
photo Barbara Logan © 2005. dlogan@alaska.net
 In 1950, critical temperature
threshold crossed (16o C/60o F);
since then, growth has declined
 Species could be eliminated
from central Alaska by the end
of this century (ACIA, 2004)
3. Wetlands and Forests
Impacts in Alaska
Forest Decline: Black Spruce
3. Wetlands and Forests
 The dominant tree in about 55% of
Alaska’s boreal forest
 Warming temperatures result in strongly
reduced growth
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
 Trees also disrupted by thawing ground
USFS photo
 By 2100,
predicted
temperature
scenarios
would not allow
black spruce
to survive in
Fairbanks area
(ACIA, 2004)
Impacts in Alaska
Forest Decline: Yellow Cedar
3. Wetlands and Forests
 The suspected cause is
spring freezing injury, due
to:
- Warmer winters
(premature dehardening
in springtime)
- Reduced snow cover
(less insulation)
(Hennon/USFS 2004; Schaberg & Hennon 2005)
Paul Hennon photo
Paul Hennon photo
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
 A dramatic decline has
affected over 500,000
acres of yellow cedar in
SE Alaska.
Impacts in Alaska
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Spruce Bud Worm
With increased warming,
all white spruce in Alaska
will be vulnerable to
outbreaks.
3. Wetlands and Forests
 Before 1990,
spruce budworm
was not able to
reproduce in
central Alaska
 After warm
summers in the
1990’s, large
infestations of
budworms have
occurred
(ACIA, 2004)
USDA Forest Service,
Dave Powell photo
Impacts in Alaska
3. Wetlands and Forests
Spruce Bark Beetle
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
USFS photo
The world’s largest
outbreak of spruce
bark beetle has
infested approximately
4 million acres on the
Kenai Peninsula
(ACIA 2004)
Cause:
 Warmer summers
One year life- cycles
 Warmer winters
No kill-off
Columbia University photo http://www.columbia.edu/~jas194
Impacts in Alaska
3. Wetlands and Forests
Forest Fires
 4.6 million acres
burned in 2005
6.0
millions of acres
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
 6.6 million acres
burned in 2004
Alaska Acres Burned 1956-2005
Bureau of Land Management
John McColgan photo
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
1960
1970
1980
Source: NOAA National Climate Data Center
1990
2000
Impacts in Alaska
3. Wetlands and Forests
Tundra Fires
Total Tundra Fire Area (Acres) Burned North of 68 deg. North Lat 1956-2007* o
Reported
thousands acres burned north of 68 latitude
from 1950-2007 Alaska Fire Service, 2007
250
*2007 fire still active as
of 9/21/07
Thousands of Acres
200
150
Anaktuvuk River Fire, 2007
100
50
0
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
North Slope Fire, 2004
Impacts in Alaska
Invasive Plant Species
EXAMPLE:
3. Wetlands and Forests
Purple Loosestrife
Canadian Dept of Agriculture
 Aggressive invader of
wetlands, serious threat to
habitat and species diversity
 Requires warm temperatures
for germination (15-20C)
 “Northern limits of distribution
may be strongly influenced by
low growing season
temperature.” (USFS)
 Now seen for the first time in
Alaska, along Chester Creek
WI Dept Natural Resources
(ADFG)
Impacts in Alaska
3. Wetlands and Forests
Insect Pests
Warmer conditions can allow or
worsen a variety of pest infestations:
Woolly sawfly
 European slugs: New to
Alaska, now flourishing from
Kenai to Interior
 Aphids: Growth increases
exponentially with temperature
Canadian Ministry of Forests
European black slug
 Birch leaf roller, birch leaf
miner, larch saw fly, aspen
leaf miner (Glenn Juday, Professor of
Forest Ecology, UAF)
 Woolly sawfly: Longer growing
season can allow two life cycles
within one year
© Ralph Berry OSU
Plants stressed by heat or drought
are more susceptible
(Michael Rasy, IPM, UAF Coop. Ext.)
Impacts in Alaska
4. Weather and Storms
Infrastructure and Storms
September 2005:
 Storm surges 9 ft, waves 15 ft.
 34 communities affected.
Kotzebue
Nome
Unalakleet
Newtok
Bethel
 Golovin homes were flooded for an
unprecedented third year in a row.
(Anchorage Daily News 9/28/05)
Photo © Gary Braasch
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
 Unalakleet lost 10-20 feet of beach.
 Newtok lost 10 ft of beach and a
1000 gallon fuel tank.
Golovin
Golovin, September 23, 2005.
photo courtesy of Toby Anungazuk, Jr.
Shishmaref, October 2002
Impacts in Alaska
Infrastructure
4. Weather and Storms
 Some shorelines have
retreated more than 1500
feet over past few decades.
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
(National Assessment Synthesis Team)
 Newtok lost 2-3 miles in 40
years.
 In a single storm in 1997,
Shishmaref lost 125 feet of
beach.
 184 communities are at risk
from flooding and erosion
12:37 PM
October 8, 2002
2:32 PM
(GAO estimate).
“Coastal villages are becoming more
susceptible to flooding and erosion
caused in part by rising temperature.”
(GAO 2004)
Shishmaref
photos courtesy of the Nome Nugget, from arctic.noaa.gov
Impacts in Alaska
4. Weather and Storms
Infrastructure
Army Corps of Engineers, April 2006 Report
Kivalina
Newtok
Shishmaref
Bethel
Dillingham
Kaktovik
Unalakleet
15,000,000
90,000,000
16,000,000
$5,000,000
10,000,000
40,000,000
30,000,000
Tony Weyiouanna, Sr. photo
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Costs of Future
Erosion Protection
Cost to
Relocate
$ 95 – 125 million
$ 80 – 130 million
$100 – 200 million
N/A
N/A
$ 20 – 40 million
N/A
How Long Does The
Community Have
10 – 15 years
10 – 15 years
10 – 15 years
> 100 years
> 100 years
> 100 years
> 100 years
Impacts in Alaska
Infrastructure
4. Weather and Storms
 “A
warming climate will damage Alaska’s infrastructure because it was
designed for a cold climate.” (Larsen and Goldsmith Institute of Social and Economic Research 6/07)
- Damage to infrastructure may add $3.6 to $6.1 billion (10% to 20%) to
future costs for public infrastructure from now to 2030 and $5.6 to $7.6 billion
(10% to 12%) from now to 2080.
- Damage will be concentrated in areas of thawing permafrost, flooding,
and eroding coastlines.
Impacts in Alaska
Alaska’s Arctic Coast
 USGS documented
that in the last 50
years, a section of
the Alaska North
Slope coastline has
eroded by as much
as 3,000 ft (0.9 KM).
(Geology 07/07)
 Erosion rates for the
area increased from
.48 km2/year (19551985) 1.08 km2/year
(1985-2005).
(Geology 07/07)
4. Weather and Storms
Impacts in Alaska
National Security
4. Weather and Storms
NORAD AK Region
Three North American Aerospace Defense Command early-warning
radar sites in Alaska to be shut down due, in part, to erosion
caused by climate change; Point Lonely already closed
(New York Times, 12/07)
The Northwest Passage
Canadian Internal Waters or International Straits?
September 2008:
Northwest Passage &
Northern Sea Route
both open (less than
one-tenth surface ice) for
first time since satellite
observations began
(US National Ice Center)
Sept. 8, 2008
(NASA)
Maritime Jurisdiction & Boundaries
Staking Claims: The First Map (Aug. 2008)
Countries that control
Arctic coastline:
 United States
 Canada
 Russia
 Norway
 Denmark (Greenland)
Each allowed 200-mile
economic zone beyond
shoreline – or
continental shelf, if
geologically related
May 2008:
5 Arctic states agree that
UN Commission will settle
competing territorial claims
International Boundaries Research Unit, Durham University
www.durham.ac.uk/ibru
The Lomonosov Ridge
No one owns the North Pole – Yet
Potential claimants to North
Pole ownership:
 Russia
 Canada
 Denmark (via Greenland)
July 2008 USGS estimate:
13% of undiscovered oil &
30% of undiscovered gas
lie under Arctic seabed
Oil & gas recovery possible –
But at what environmental &
human costs?
International Bathymetric Chart of the Arctic Ocean
(geology.com)
Health Impacts
South Fairbanks smoke, June 2004
 Oyster contamination in
summer of 2004 (New England
Journal of Medicine, 2005)
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
 Hazardous travel, hunting
and fishing
 Adverse dietary impacts
 Beaver range expanding
 Health damage from fires -respiratory illnesses,
especially in elderly, children
 Water and sewer failures
 First yellowjacket sting
deaths in Fairbanks in 2006;
50% increase in
sting-related emergencies
(Dr. Jeffrey Demain, UAA)
Impacts in Alaska
Alaska’s Uniqueness
Global warming
threatens
Alaska’s very
soul and special
quality of life
5. Human Impacts
Race Cancelled
3 of last 8 years
Start Moved
6 of last 10 years
Impacts in Alaska
5. Human Impacts
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Subsistence Impacts
“…the Arctic is becoming an
environment at risk… Sea
ice is less stable, unusual
weather patterns are
occurring, vegetation cover
is changing, and particular
animals are no longer found
in traditional hunting areas
during specific seasons.
Photo © Alaska Division of Tourism
Local landscapes,
seascapes, and icescapes
are becoming unfamiliar,
making people feel like
strangers in their own land.”
(ACIA, 2004)
NOAA photo
Photo © Alaska Division of Tourism
Impacts in Alaska
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
People and Culture
“Climate change
is occurring faster
than people can
adapt. [It] is
strongly affecting
people in many
communities, in
some cases
threatening their
cultural survival.”
5. Human Impacts
Photo courtesy of Alaska Conservation Foundation
(ACIA 2004)
Photo © Alaska Division of Tourism
Photo © Alaska Division of Tourism
Impacts in Alaska
Indigenous Peoples
5. Human Impacts
“For the Inuit, climate change is a
matter of livelihood, food, health,
and individual and cultural
survival.”
“The erosion and potential
destruction of our way of life
brought about by climate change
resulting from emission of
greenhouse gases amounts to a
violation of the fundamental
human rights of Inuit.”
Sheila Watts-Cloutier
Former Chair, Inuit
Circumpolar Conference
Impacts in Alaska
Indigenous Peoples
“In no case may a
people be deprived of
its own means of
subsistence.”
United Nations International
Covenant on Civil and Political Rights
5. Human Impacts
Impacts in Alaska
5. Human Impacts
Human Impacts
Will Steger
Founder, globalwarming101.org
Photo: Environment Canada
Photo: Christoph Lüpkes, Alfred Wegener Institute
“All of these villages have lost people on the
ice. When you have a small village of 300 or
400 people, losing three or four of their senior
hunters, it’s a big loss. A lot of the elders will
no longer go out on the sea ice because their
knowledge will not work anymore. What
they’ve learned and passed on for 5,000 years
is no longer functional.”
“Due to unusual ice conditions, one of our
young local hunters lost his life, which has not
occurred in our community in my lifetime.”
Tony Weyiouanna, Sr. photo
Fannie Weyiouanna, Shishmaref
Impacts in Alaska
If we do not Act: Worst Case
5. Human Impacts
If we fail to act, and CO2 keeps rising at the current rate, then
a new modeling study predicts that:
 Average temperatures in
many parts of northern
North America will rise
more than 25oF by 2100.
 Arctic tundra will decline
from 8% to 1.8% of the
world’s land area, and
Alaska will lose almost all
of its evergreen boreal
forests.
 Extinctions and profound
disruptions will ensue.
(Govindasamy and Caldeira, 2005)
Predicted
Temperature
Increase
_
+25oF
_
+20
_
+15
_
+10
_
+5
Impacts in Alaska
5. Human Impacts
Shishmaref & Elsewhere: We Must Help
Tony Weyiouanna, Sr.
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Tony Weyiouanna, Sr. photos
Tony Weyiouanna, Sr. photo
The Options:
 Relocate entire village.
 Pay villagers to disperse
to Nome, Kotzebue,
and Anchorage.
 Do nothing.
Kelly Eningowuk photo
Adaptation
The “Do Nothing” Option
1. Relocating Villages
“We are unique, and
need to be valued as
a national treasure
by the people of the
United States.
We deserve the
attention and help of
the American people
and the federal
government.”
Edwin Weyiouanna, AFE 2006
Tony Weyiouanna, Sr. photo
Robert Puschendorf
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
“The no action option for
Shishmaref is the annihilation
of our community…”
Tony Weyiouanna, Sr. photos
Adaptation
Shishmaref’s Request
1. Relocating Villages
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
“We are worth saving.”
“[We request that]
Shishmaref be used as a
Federal demonstration
project with maximum
flexibility to determine what
changes need to be made to
lower the cost and impact of
relocation, identify a Federal
champion, and facilitate
agency coordination.”
Tony Weyiouanna, Sr. photo
Edwin Weyiouanna, AFE 2006
Global Cataclysmic Concerns
Inundation
Inundation from Four Meter Sea Level Rise (or 1m rise + 3m storm surge)
Weiss and Overpeck, 2006
Global Cataclysmic Concerns
Inundation
Inundation from Four Meter Sea Level Rise (or 1m rise + 3m storm surge)
Weiss and Overpeck, 2006
Adaptation
2. Infrastructure
Adaptation: Other Needs
Alaska Highways and Communities Susceptible
to Permafrost Melting
Adaptation is needed
in many other areas:
 Lands management
 Fish and wildlife
management
 Water and waste
management
 Archaeology
Alan Parkinson photo
Courtesy of Peter Larsen, UAA
USFWS photo
 Highway repair
Map courtesy of Orson Smith
ANTHC photo
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Permafrost:
-- continuous
-- discontinuous
-- sporadic
-- <10%
Adaptation
Adaptation: Not always possible
3. Extinctions
If global warming emissions continue to
increase, irreplaceable elements of our
natural and cultural heritage will be lost
forever.
NMML
Adaptation is critical but not sufficient.
ADCED
What We Can Do
Individual Actions
1. Conserve
2. Consume efficiently
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
3. Use renewables
4. Be involved
www.alaskaconservationsolutions.com
What We Can Do
Measuring Your Carbon Footprint
Major Carbon Contributors:
 Electric consumption
 Gas/heating oil
consumption
 Car and miles driven
 Miles flown
 ORV use
Average Alaskan Carbon
Footprint = 24,000 pounds
www.alaskaconservationsolutions.com
What We Can Do
Making a Difference as an Individual
Conservation Measures:
 Walk, bike, ride public transit,











or carpool
Make sure your tires are fully
inflated and your car tuned up
Lower your water heater and
home thermostats
Don't preheat your oven
Only run your dishwasher with
full loads
Reduce your shower length and
temperature
Buy locally produced food—look
for the Alaska Grown Logo
Unplug appliances not in use
Turn off lights when leaving a room
Use recycled paper
Reuse or recycle as much as you can
Cut down on consumerism
What We Can Do
Conservation: Three Examples
Unplug Appliances
 Vampires!
 43 billion kWH lost/year in U.S.
 Estimated savings =
1,000 lbs/year/person
Pump Up Tires
 4 million gallon of gas wasted
daily in U.S.
 Extends life of tires by 25%
 Estimated savings =
1,000 lbs/year/person
Lower Thermostat
 2 degrees
 OR 6 degrees for 8 hours/day
 Estimated savings =
2000 lbs/year/person
What We Can Do
Making a Difference as an Individual
Energy Efficiency
 Reduce your home’s heat
and energy loses
 Replace incandescent lights
with fluorescents
 Replace your appliances with
“energy star” rated appliances
 Buy a hybrid car
Renewables
 Install renewable energy
systems: wind, solar, geothermal,
in-stream hydro
 Use biofuels
Carbon Neutral
 Carbon offsets – Denali Green Tags
Be Heard!
What We Can Do
Energy Efficiency: Two Examples
Compact Fluorescents
 Four to six times
more efficient
 Estimated savings =
100 lbs/year
for each bulb converted
Hybrid Cars
 Save money on fuel
 Tax credit
 Estimated savings =
5,600 lbs/year
Summary
Why Alaska Matters
 We are at ground zero.
Photo © 2002 Robert Glenn Ketchum
Courtesy of Alaska Conservation Foundation
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
in the Global Warming Crisis
 We are the “Paul Revere”
of global warming.
 Alaska contributes in
unique ways to the earth’s
natural and cultural
heritage, and this heritage
is imperiled.
 Our leaders matter.
 If we do not act…..
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Deborah L. Williams
Alaska Conservation Solutions
dlwilliams@gci.net
Thank You
www.alaskaconservationsolutions.com
JRA
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
For further information:
Deborah L. Williams
Alaska Conservation Solutions
308 G Street, Suite 219
Anchorage, AK 99501
dlwilliams@gci.net
(907) 929-9370
www.alaskaconservationsolutions.com
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Presentation produced by Jennifer R. Allen
Alaska Digital Graphics, Anchorage
For technical assistance please contact:
Jennifer Allen
jrallen@ak.net
(907) 360-2881
PO Box 212806
Anchorage, Alaska 99521
Scientific Contributors
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
We thank the following scientists and researchers for generous provision
of data and figures presented here, and for valuable discussions and
other assistance:
Ed Berg
Cook Inlet Keeper
Paul Hennon
Richard Kocan
Peter Larsen
Tom Osterkamp
James Overland
Jonathan Overpeck
Vladimir Romanovsky
Chris Rose
Mark Willette
Woods Hole Research Center
Photographic Contributors
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
We gratefully acknowledge the photographs made available by:
Adams River Salmon Society http://www.salmonsociety.com/
Toby Anungazuk, Jr., Golovin
Alaska Conservation Foundation http://www.akcf.org
*Alaska Department of Community & Economic Development www.dced.state.ak.us/apl/home.cfm
*Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation http://www.dec.state.ak.us/
Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium http://www.anthc.org/index.cfm
Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, 2004 http://www.amap.no/acia/
*Armed Forces Institute of Pathology http://www.afip.org/vetpath/WSC/WSC95/95wsc18.htm
Gary Braasch http://www.worldviewofglobalwarming.org/
*Bureau of Land Management http://www.nifc.gov/gallery/
Columbia University http://www.columbia.edu/~jas194
Deep Blue Dive Shop, Utila, Honduras http://www.deepblueutila.com/
Kelly Eningowuk, Shishmaref
Environmental Defense http://www.environmentaldefense.org
E.R. Keeley, University of British Columbia
Robert Glenn Ketchum http://www.robertglennketchum.com/
Barbara Logan dlogan@alaska.net
Gary Luhm http://www.garyluhm.com/
*NASA Earth Observatory http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/
*National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration http://www.photolib.noaa.gov/
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
Photographic Contributors (cont.)
*National Snow and Ice Data Center http://nsidc.org/
*National Weather Service Alaska Pacific River Forecast Center http://aprfc.arh.noaa.gov/
Ocean Research, Inc., Honolulu http://www.ocean-research.com/
Alan Parkinson, CDC Anchorage
Public Health Agency of Canada http://www.westnilevirus.gc.ca
Robert Puschendorf
The 7 Summits http://7summits.com/
The Age, Melbourne. http://www.theage.com.au
The Nome Nugget http://www.nomenugget.com
*USDA Forest Service http://www.forestryimages.org/
*US Fish and Wildlife Service http://www.fws.gov/
*US Geological Survey http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/photos.asp
Web Portal of Bangladesh http://www.ourbangla.com
Tony Weyiouanna, Sr., Shishmaref
Richard Wilson, Harvard University
Copyright and intellectual property rights for all photographs, graphics, figures and
maps in this presentation are retained by their respective creators or owners as
indicated. Please contact them directly for permission to use their property and/or
guidelines on permitted usage. *Public domain source exceptions are asterisked.
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
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