Chapter 3 Population
• Describe global population distribution
• Examine causes and consequences of
population change
• To understand the Malthusian argument
• To describe demographic and economic
characteristics of a population
• To understand the Demographic Transition
• To describe the baby boom
• Understanding economic migration
Population Explodes after the
Industrial Revolution
Population Density
Population Growth over Time and
Space
•
•
•
•
World population growth is slowing
Still adding ca. 80 million per year
Most in developing countries
Some countries are losing population
(Russia, E. Europe, coming in Japan)
• Forces affecting population change
∆P = BR – DR + I – O or
∆P = NGR +NMR
Fertility & Mortality: in 2002:
US crude birthrate = 15/1000,
crude death rate = 9/1000,
natural growth rate = 6/1000 or 0.6%
Malthusian Theory
• Assumed that human populations would
continue to grow geometrically
• And assumed that food production would
grow arithmetically, due to diminishing
marginal returns (or less than arithmetically)
Output
arithmetic
Diminishing returns
Inputs
Malthus’ Expectations & Reality
Failed to see impact of Industrial Revolution on Food production
• Failed to see the opening of new lands
(especially in the new world)
• Failed to anticipate falling fertility rates
•
Neo-Malthusians: The Club of
Rome and The Limits to Growth
Demographic Transition Theory
• Based on Western European & North
American History
Stages in Demographic Transition
Theory
• Stage 1: Preindustrial Society – high and
unstable birth & death rates, population growth
rate slow, importance of children, low life
expectancy
• Stage 2: Early Industrial Society - high birth
rates, falling death rate, high population growth
• Stage 3: Late Industrial Society – low death rate,
falling birth rate, high population growth
• Stage 4: Post Industrial Society – low birth and
death rates, low population growth
Geography of Birth Rates
Strongly correlated with level of economic development
Geography of Death Rates
Evidence of Demographic Transition?
Shifting Causes of Death
• Stage 1 – Poor Health Care
• Stage 2 – Lower infant mortality rates with
better diet and improvements in health care
(Figure 3.18)
• Stage 3 – similar to Stage 2
• Stage 4 – Few deaths from infectious
diseases, more from social malaise (Figures
3.21 and 3.22). Some countries below ZPG
Contrasts between Malthus and the
Demographic Transition
• Fertility is socially constructed, not taken for
granted
• Population does not grow uncontrollably, but
rather stabilizes at a slow growth rate as birth
and death rates fall
• However, absolute population growth is still
large (ca. 80 million per annum) due to the large
base (current 6+ billion)
• Total future population depends on fertility rate
trends in less developed regions (Figure 3.28)
Criticisms of Demographic
Transition Theory
• Based on Western societies (Europe,
North America, Japan)
• Not inevitable that there will be a fall in
fertility rates in less developed countries
• Even with dramatically lowered fertility
rates
• We cannot predict the length of time it will
take these countries to move from Stages
2 and 3 to Stage 4 (if they do)