Tackling Poverty with Social Transfers to Vulnerable Groups: Evidence from Africa 15 November 2006 Michael Samson msamson@epri.org.za Economic Policy Research Institute International Forum on the Eradication of Poverty New York City 15-16 November 2006 UNICEF session on “Children in Poverty” Overview THE PROBLEM: Poverty disproportionately affects children and older people THE INSTRUMENT: Social transfers provide regular cash payments to poor households THE OUTCOMES: – children’s health, education and nutrition – break the inter-generational cycle of disadvantage – labor market participation – broad economic and developmental impacts KEY ISSUES: dependency, conditionality, affordability South Africa’s cash transfers produce remarkable social outcomes while supporting economic growth and broad developmental impacts Sub-Saharan Africa’s oldest social transfer program Costs 3% of GDP Substantial impact on poverty reduction Extensive studies of growth outcomes – Human capital – Labor markets – Development South Africa South Africa’s social grants reduce poverty and destitution substantially 80% 60% 40% 20% 48% reduction 67% reduction Poverty gap Destitution gap 0% The universal social pension in Lesotho mainly protects children and promotes human capital accumulation The world’s newest Lesotho universal social pension, started in 2004 Costs 1.4% of GDP 65% of the cash is spent on children cared for by older people Supports human capital investment, particularly for OVCs Social transfers in Namibia protect children and older people, support labour market participation and promote local economic activity A transformed Namibia pension system since democracy in 1990 Near-universal takeup (85%) Costs 0.7% of GDP Supports labour market participation, particularly for women Stimulates local markets Do social transfers create dependency? A major concern of policy-makers Evidence in many developing countries suggests that social grants support labor market participation Robust evidence from South Africa – Ability to search for employment – Ability to find a job Bolster economic power in negotiating decent work Impact of South Africa’s Child Support Grant on adult labor force participation Household does not receive child grant in 2004 Household receives child grant in 2004 Improvement associated with child grant Find employment 13% 15% 2% Actively look for work 17% 20% 3% Probability that a poor adult of working age in 2005 will: NOTE: Sample includes working age adults (older than 16) in households in the lowest income quintile but with no working individuals in September 2004. SOURCE: Statistics South Africa Labor Force Surveys and EPRI calculations Impact of South Africa’s Child Support Grant on women’s labor force participation Household does not receive child grant in 2004 Household receives child grant in 2004 Improvement associated with child grant Find employment 12% 15% 3% Actively look for work 14% 20% 6% Probability that a poor women of working age in 2005 will: NOTE: Sample includes women (older than 16) in households in the lowest income quintile with older people but with no working individuals. SOURCE: Statistics South Africa Labor Force Surveys and EPRI calculations Are conditionalities necessary? Rationale: long term poverty reduction Philosophical underpinnings Risks – compromise the poverty reduction objective – deprive the poor of freedom to choose appropriate services — and to freely make decisions to improve household welfare – can be expensive, inflexible, and inefficient — in the worst of cases, screen out the poorest Are social transfers affordable? Social transfers must be financed, and the costs can be substantial — up to 3% of national income. Economic growth and the government’s available budget depend on each other. Social transfers conserve fiscal resources in important ways. Social transfers can support a virtuous circle of growth, greater affordability and sustainability. Conclusions For countries in Africa, social transfers have demonstrated considerable success in supporting children’s health, education and nutrition. In many countries they are the most effective government program for reducing poverty. They help to break the cycle of inter-generational transmission of disadvantage. Social transfers do not create dependency—they often break dependency traps, particularly by nurturing productive high-return risk-taking. Social transfers support economic growth and development and are affordable.