DISCRETE & RANDOM VARIABLES Discrete random variable A discrete random variable is one which may take on only a countable number of distinct values such as 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, ... Discrete random variables are usually (but not necessarily) counts. If a random variable can take only a finite number of distinct values, then it must be discrete. Examples of discrete random variables include the number of children in a family, the Friday night attendance at a cinema, the number of patients in a doctor's surgery, the number of defective light bulbs in a box of ten. Relative frequency Number of flat sides up. 0 1 2 3 4 Score 5 1 2 3 4 The only way to get an estimate of the probability is to throw the sticks many times and find what we call the: – relative frequency –Q Can be different each time why? – If the stick is thrown 100 times and the results are: – Flat side up: 70 giving an estimate probability of 0.7 – Curved side up: 30 giving an estimate probability of 0.3 Listing possibilities: have a system 3 sticks 2 sticks 1 stick f f f f c c f c c c f f f f f c f c f f c c c f f c f c c c f c c c f f f f f f f c f f c f f f c c f c f f f c f c f c c f f c c c c f f f c f f c c f c f c f c c c c f f c c f c c c c f c c c c Working out probabilities: Each stick falls independently, f=0.7 c=0.3 1 x P(f,f,f,f) = 0.7 x 0.7 x 0.7 x 0.7= 0.2401 = 0.74 4 x P(f,f,f,c)= 0.73 x 0.3 x 4= 6 x P(f,f,c,c)=0.72 x 0.32 x 6 = f f f f f f f c f f c f f f c c f c f f f c f c f c c f c c c 4 x P(f,c,c,c) = 0.7 x 0.33 x 4 = 3 sticks f 1 x P(c,c,c,c) = 0.34 = f f f c f f f f f c c f f c f c f c f c f f c c c f c c 2 sticks 1 stick f f f f c c f c c c c f f c c f f c f c c c f c c c f c c c f c c c c c c c Relative frequency Number of flat sides up. 0 1 2 3 4 Score 5 1 2 3 4 The score is an example of discrete random variable. – Let S stand for score. Capital letters are used for random variables. – P(S=3) means ‘the probability that S=3 – P(S=3) = 0.4116 s. 1 2 3 4 5 P(S=s) Probability function 0.0756 0.2646 0.4116 0.2401 0.0081 Note s is used for individual values of the random variable S P(X=x) as a stick/bar graph Probibality (X=x) Uniforme distribution 0.18 0.16 0.14 P (X=x) 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.00 1 2 3 4 dice 5 6 TASK Exercise A – Page 53 & 54 Questions: 1, 2, 3, 5 & 6 Do rest at home. Mean, variance and standard deviation s. 1 P(S=s) Probability function 0.0756 0.2646 2 3 4 0.4116 0.2401 5 0.0081 If I were to throw 10000 times, I could work out the mean like the below. Multiply each of my probabilities by 10000 and then divide by 10000 1 756 2 2646 3 4116 4 2401 5 81 mean 2.84 10000 Mean, variance and standard deviation s. 1 P(S=s) Probability function 0.0756 0.2646 2 3 4 0.4116 0.2401 5 0.0081 However, multiplying and dividing by 10000 both top and bottom seems unnecessary and it is mean 1 0.0756 2 0.2646 3 0.4116 4 0.2401 5 0.0081 2.84 MEAN of: Discrete random Variables Mean S =Σs x P(S=s) The mean of a random variable is usually denoted by μ (‘mu’) Task B1, B2 VARIANCE x 0 1 2 3 4 P(X=x) Probability function 0.15 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.1 Mean = 0x0.15 + 1x0.25 + 2x0.25 + 3x0.25 + 4x0.1=1.9 x 0 x-μ -1.9 (x-μ)2 P(X=x) (x-μ)2x P(X=x) 3.61 0.15 0.5415 1 2 3 4 -0.9 0.1 1.1 2.1 0.81 0.01 1.21 4.41 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.1 0.2025 0.0025 0.3025 0.4410 Variance & Standard deviation x 0 1 2 3 4 x-μ -1.9 (x-μ)2 P(X=x) (x-μ)2x P(X=x) 3.61 0.15 0.5415 -0.9 0.81 0.25 0.1 0.01 0.25 1.1 1.21 0.25 2.1 4.41 0.1 Variance = σ2 Standard deviation = σ 0.2025 0.0025 0.3025 0.4410 1.49 1.22 The standard deviation or random variables is normally denoted as σ TASK Page 56 question 2 Homework – test yourself