Measures of Australia’s Progress
Is life in Australia getting better?
Susan Linacre
Deputy Australian Statistician
Social Statistics Group
‘If the GDP is up, why is
America so down’
Clifford Cobb, Ted Halstead and
Jonathon Rowe
Oct 1995
Approaches to Measuring
Progress
• Life satisfaction or happiness
• A single composite indicator e.g. Human
Development Index and Genuine Progress
Indicator
• A set of integrated accounts that presents
social economic and environmental data in a
unified system
• Suite of indicators to inform judgements
Dimensions
Individuals
• Health
• Education and training
• Work
• Culture and leisure
The Economy and
Economic Resources
• National Income
• Economic hardship
• National wealth
• Housing
• Productivity
• Competitiveness and
openness
• Inflation
Living together
• Family, community and
social cohesion
• Crime
• Communication
• Transport
• Democracy, governance and
citizenship
The Environment
• The natural landscape
• The air and atmosphere
• Oceans and estuaries
GDP
• Between 1997 and
2007, GDP rose by
26% in real terms from
$38,200 to $48,000 per
person.
Real GDP per person
$50,000
$45,000
$40,000
• This represents average
annual growth of 2.3%.
$35,000
1997
2002
2007
Health
• Between 1996 and
2006 life expectancy at
birth for males rose by
3 years to 79 years and
for women by 2 years
to 83 years.
Life expectancy at birth
(years)
85
80
75
70
1996
2001
males
2006
females
Education and training
• Over the 10 years to
2007, the proportion of
the population aged
25–64 years with a
non-school
qualification rose from
46% to 59%,
continuing the trend
from previous decades.
Highest level of non-school
qualification of people aged 25–64
years
(%)
40
30
20
10
1997
2002
Degree
Certificate/Diploma
2007
Work
• Between 1997 and
2007, the annual
average unemployment
rate fell from 8.3% to
4.4%.
Labour force
(%)
20
15
10
• The labour force
underutilisation rate
fell from 13.6% to
8.9%.
5
0
1997
2002
unemployment
2007
under utilisation
National income
• Between 1996-97 and
2006-07, real net
national disposable
income per person
grew by 2.9% a year on
average.
Real net national disposable
income per person
$40,000
$35,000
$30,000
$25,000
1997
2002
2007
Economic hardship
• The average real
equivalised disposable
household income of
people in the low
income group rose by
about 30% between
1994-95 and 2005-06.
Average real equivalised
disposable household income
(index)
130
120
110
100
90
1995
2000
Low income group
2005
Middle income group
National wealth
Real national net worth per person
• Between 1997 and
2007, Australia’s real
net worth per person
rose at an average
annual rate of 0.9%.
$260,000
$250,000
$240,000
$230,000
1997
2002
2007
Productivity
• During the decade
1996-97 to 2006-07,
multifactor
productivity rose by
1.1% per year on
average.
Multifactor productivity
(index)
105
100
95
90
85
1997
2002
2007
The natural landscape
Biodiversity
• Between 2000 and
2007, the number of
terrestrial bird and
mammal species
assessed as extinct,
endangered or
vulnerable rose by 14%
from 153 to 174 (of
which 69 were birds
and 105 were
mammals).
Threatened bird and mammal
species
(number)
200
150
100
50
0
2000
Extinct
2002
Endangered
2004
2006
Vulnerable
Total
The natural landscape
Biodiversity
• The estimated 333,600 ha
of Australian land cleared in
2005 was 6% more than the
314,700 ha cleared in 1995.
• Of land cleared in 2005,
almost half (152,400 ha)
was ‘forest conversion'
(forest cleared for the first
time). This was 18% less
than the area converted in
1995 (186,900 ha).
Annual area of land cleared
('000 hectares)
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1995
1997
1999
2001
Forest conversion
2003
Total
2005
The natural landscape
Land
• In 2000, about
46,500 km² (4.65 million
ha) of agricultural land
had a high salinity
hazard or were at high
risk from shallow
watertables.
• About 11,800 km of
streams and lake edges,
1,600 km of rail and
19,900 km of roads were
at risk from salinity.
Assets at risk from dryland salinity
2000
0
20,000 40,000 60,000
Agricultural land (km²)
Remnant vegetation and
plantation forest (km²)
Streams and lake edges
(km)
Road and rail (km)
km or sq km
The natural landscape
Inland waters
• In 2005, 1% of 256 surface
water management areas were
assessed to be over-allocated
and 17% were developed to a
high level.
Water resources, level of
development, 2004–05
(%)
25
20
15
10
5
• About 5% of 356 groundwater
management units were
assessed to be over-allocated
and 24% had a high level of
development.
0
surface water
management areas
groundwater
management units
Water source with a high level of development
Overallocated water source
The air and atmosphere
• Fine particle health
standards were
exceeded in selected
urban areas on about
one to two days on
average each year
between 1997 and
2006.
Days fine particle health standards
were exceeded
8
6
4
2
0
1997
• The exceptions in
2002, 2003 and 2006
were associated with
bushfires.
2002
The air and atmosphere
• Australia's net
greenhouse gas
emissions increased by
14% between 1996 and
2006.
Australia's net greenouse gas
emissions
(megatonnes CO2 equivalent)
600
580
560
• This was 4% above
1990 levels and within
the Kyoto target of no
more than 8% increase
by 2012.
540
520
500
1990
1995
2000
2005
Family, community and social cohesion
• No headline
indicator
Crime
• Victimisation prevalence
rates for selected personal
crimes showed an increase
between 1998 and 2005
from 4.8% to 5.3%. Most of
these people were assaulted.
Victims of selected
personal crimes
(%)
8
6
4
2
• Between 1998 and 2005, the
proportion of households
that were victims of selected
household crimes fell from
9.0% to 6.2%.
0
1998
2002
2005
Victims of selected
household crimes
(%)
10
8
6
4
2
0
1998
2002
2005
Democracy, governance and
citizenship
• No headline
indicator
10-year change in headline indicators
and GDP
Annual average
-6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6%
GDP
life exp male
life exp female
qualifications
unemployment*
lf under utilis*
nat income
low income
nat wealth
productivity
endang spec*
vulner spec*
forest conv*
tot land clear*
g'house gas*
pers crime*
h'hold crime*
* direction of change reversed to highlight improvements on RHS of
graph and regression on LHS of graph
What else do we need to know?
• Other indicators
• Distribution across geography and
population groups?
• What is going on behind the headline
indicator?
• Relationships among dimensions?
• Other dimensions?
Health risk factors
75
Overweight/obese (BMI 25+)
75
50
50
25
25
0
0
1995
2001
males
75
1995
2004–05
75
50
50
25
25
0
0
2001
males
2001
males
females
Risky drinking
1995
Little or low exercise
2004–05
females
Source: ABS, National Health Survey
2004–05
females
Current smokers
1995
2001
males
females
2004–05
Distribution across population groups
• Aboriginal and Torres
Strait Islander peoples
Persons aged 25-64 years
with a qualification
60%
• Males/females
1996
40%
2006
• Low income
• Disability
• Country of birth
20%
0%
Indigenous
Total
Geographic distribution
• State/territory
Household net worth
$700
• Remote/non-remote
$600
$500
$400
• Urban/rural
2003-04
2005-06
$300
$200
$100
• Community level
$0
NSW
Vic
Qld
SA
WA
Tas
NT
ACT Aust
Gaps
• Headline dimension,
indicator but scarce data:
• Salinity
• Headline dimension but
no single indicator
• Housing
• Oceans and estuaries
• Family, community
and social cohesion
• Democracy,
governance and
citizenship
MAP
• first released 2002
- Dennis Trewin’s award in society
category of The Bulletin’s Smart 100
2003
• subsequent reports 2004 and 2006
• indicators updated each year on the
ABS website
• most recent update August 2008
Future Challenges
• Consultation and engagement
• Filling the gaps, building the
framework
• Presentation, communication, debate