NatStats 2010 Conference
Sydney, 15-17 September 2010
How Does Australia
Compare in the Global
Economy?
Martine Durand
OECD Chief Statistician and
Director of Statistics
1
Outline of presentation
How does Australia compare?
Australia during the recent crisis
Australia over the medium-term
What about Australian people?
Challenges for the future
2
Australia has fared well during
the crisis in terms of output…
Gross Domestic Product
Volume, S.A
Q4-2007=100
105
104
103
102
101
100
99
98
97
96
95
Australia
Canada
Korea
United States
European Union (27 countries)
3
Source: OECD (2010), National Accounts of OECD countries
…employment…
Employment rates
Employees (Household Survey based)
Q4-2007=100
104
102
100
98
96
94
92
Australia
Canada
Source: OECD (2010), Main Economic Indicators
Japan
United States
European Union (27 countries)
4
…and unemployment
Harmonised Unemployment rates, S.A
11%
10%
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
Australia
Canada
Source: OECD (2010), Main Economic Indicators
Japan
Korea
United States
OECD - Europe
5
This good performance reflects
in part strong demand from Asia
Australia, Total exports of goods by economic regions
1999
NAFTA (OECD)
2009
6%
11%
9%
EUROPE (OECD)
29%
12%
9%
44%
Other
13%
ASIA & OCEANIA
(OECD)
ASIA (Non-OECD)
32%
34%
Source: OECD (2010), International Trade by Commodity Statistics
6
... and perpetuates favourable mediumterm developments, for instance aboveaverage economic activity…
Gross Domestic Product
Volume, S.A
Q1-1995=100
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
Australia
Canada
European Union (27 countries)
United States
Japan
7
Source: OECD (2010), National Accounts of OECD countries
Korea
…with a gradual reduction in the gap in
GDP per capita vis-à-vis the OECD
average1
Productivity and income levels, 2009
Percentage gap with respect
to the upper half of OECD countries in
Percentage gap for labour
resource utilisation
terms of GDP per capita 2
Percentage gap for
3
labour productivity4
United States
United States
Australia
Australia
Canada
Canada
EU19
EU19
Japan
Japan
Korea
Korea
-40
-20
0
20
40
-40
-20
0
20
40
-60
-40
-20
0
20
1. Relative to the simple average of the highest 17 OECD countries in terms of GDP per capita, based on 2009 PPPs (2008 for Chile, Israel and
Slovenia).
Source: OECD, National Accounts database, OECD, Economic Outlook Database and OECD (2009), Employment Outlook
8
Good utilisation of labour, including for
some disadvantaged groups on the
labour market ...
Employment by selected age group
Employment / population ratio in percentage, 2009
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Japan
OECD Total
United States
Age group 15-24
Source: OECD Employment Outlook 2010
Canada
Australia
Netherlands
Age group 55-64
9
Above average participation rate of
women
Women aged 15-64 years, percentage, 2009
90
2005
2009
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Korea
OECD total
Source: OECD Employment Outlook 2010
Japan
United States
Australia
Canada
10
Iceland
Lower than average unemployment rate
of foreign-born relative to native-born
Ratio, 2009
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
United States
Canada
Australia1
1. Second quarter 2009
Source: OECD (2010), International Migration Outlook: SOPEMI 2010
OECD average
Belgium
Sweden
11
... But lagging labour productivity
growth...
GDP per hour worked
1995=100
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
Australia
Source: OECD Productivity Database
Canada
Japan
United States
EU (17 countries)
12
…despite a secular rise in the
terms of trade
Ratio of export prices to import prices, 2000=100, 2008
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Japan
Korea
United States
1. Estimated value
Source: OECD, National Account at a glance, 2009
OECD Total1
Euro area
Canada
Australia
13
Government finances have held up
too
General government gross financial liabilities
2009
1999
200
as a percentage of GDP , 2009
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Australia
United States
1. Total OECD excludes Mexico and Turkey.
Source: OECD, Economic Outlook, volume 2010, Issue 1, May
Euro Area
OECD1
Japan
14
A look at the household
perspective…
Focus on households is at the heart of the
OECD work on Measuring Well-Being and
the Progress of Societies
15
Higher actual individual consumption
growth than GDP growth
(2002-2008)
Annual growth in percentage
%
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Japan
Euro area
GDP
Canada
OECD-Total United States
Australia
Korea
Actual individual consumption
Source: OECD (2010), National Accounts of OECD countries
16
…income inequality – Australia is
middle-of-the range and stable…
Gini coefficients of income in OECD countries, mid-2000s
0.40
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20
Denmark
Australia
OECD
Korea
Canada
Japan
United
States
Source: Growing Unequal? Income Distribution and Poverty in OECD Countries, 2008
17
…so overall, Australians have
every reason to be happy…
People reporting high evaluation of their life as a whole
As a percentage of respondents, 2009 or latest available year
90
Present time
Future time
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
China
Source: OECD Factbook 2010
Russia
Japan
OECD
United States
Australia
Canada
18
…but more needs to be known
about the well-being of
Australian people
OECD is developing indicators along two
dimensions
Better measurement of economic resources and
their distribution, including household’s own
production and wealth
Indicators of quality of life, both objective and
subjective
19
There are challenges as well
if Australia wants to maintain
its favourable position in the
future
20
High number of people receiving
disability benefits
Disability benefit recipiency rates
Disability benefit recipients in percent of the population aged 20-64, mid-1990s and latest year available
2008 or latest year available (↘)
Mid-1990s or earliest year available
Percentage of working-age population
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
United States
(++)
OECD (=)
Australia (+)
Canada (=)
Source: OECD, Sickness & Disability Policies Synthesis Report (2010, forthcoming)
Japan (+)
Korea (++)
21
Average performance in uppersecondary education
Performance on science and reading scales in PISA 2006
Mean score
Science
575
Reading
Above the OECD average
550
OECD average in science: 500
525
500
475
450
OECD average in reading: 492
Below the OECD average
425
400
375
Source: OECD Factbook 2010
22
Low enrolment rates in early
childhood education
Enrolment rates in early childhood education, 2008
%
140
Children aged 4 and under as a per cent of the population aged 3 to 4
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Spain1
New Zealand
Japan
OECD average United States
Australia
Korea
Source: OECD (2010), Education at a Glance 2010.
23
…but more needs to be known
about the skills and competencies
of the workforce
OECD has launched PIAAC
OECD works on measures of human capital
24
High obesity rates
%
Percentage of adult population with Body Mass Index over
30 (obese population), 2009 (or latest year available)
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Japan1
Korea1
Canada
OECD
Australia1
United
States1
1. For Australia, Japan, Korea, and the United States, figures are based on health examination surveys, rather than health interview surveys.
Source: OECD Health Data 2010
25
Innovation is also central: Australia
is below the OECD average for
R&D…
Gross domestic expenditure on R&D
As a percentage of GDP
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
China
European
Union
Canada
Australia
2008 or latest available year
OECD total
United States
Japan
1999 or first available year
26
Source: OECD Factbook 2010
…patents…
Triadic patent families
Number per million inhabitants, 2007
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
New Zealand Australia
Source: OECD Factbook 2010
Canada
OECD total
Korea
United
States
Japan
Switzerland
27
…and at the OECD average for
Broadband internet access
OECD Fixed broadband subscribers per 100 inhabitants, by technology,December 2009
40
Other
Fibre/LAN
Cable
35
30
OECD
average
25
20
15
10
5
0
Netherlands
Korea
United States
Japan
Australia
New Zealand
Slovak
Republic
Source: OECD Broadband statistics
28
DSL
…and there are sustainability
challenges: managing natural
resources – one of them is water
Water abstractions
1 800
m³ per capita, 2007 or latest available year
1 600
1 400
1 200
1 000
800
600
400
200
0
Israel
Source: OECD Factbook 2010
China
Japan
OECD total
Australia
United States
29
…another one is energy ...
Total primary energy supply per capita
Tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) per capita
2008
1998
8
6
4
2
0
China1
1. Data refer to the years 1998 and 2007
Source: OECD Factbook 2010
Japan
OECD total
Australia
United States
Canada
30
...and CO2 emissions
CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion, 2007
CO2 / Population (t CO2 per capita)
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Japan
OECD
Canada
Australia
United States
Source: IEA, Indicators for CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion - Edition 2009
31
…but more needs to be known
about sustainability
OECD is developing indicators in two
areas
 Green Growth and the Environment
Intangible assets
32
Conclusions
Australia is in a rather favourable position
in the global economy
But three are some challenges ahead to
remain in that position
And new indicators are needed to better
assess performance
33
Thank you for your
attention!
martine.durand @oecd.org
34