Developing the Basin Plan
NatStats 2010 Conference
Rob Freeman, Chief Executive
Sydney, 16 September 2010
Murray-Darling Basin
• Directly supports 3 million people.
• Feeds approximately 20 million people.
• Significant environmental values.
• 14% of Australia.
• Australia’s three longest rivers.
• 40% Australia’s farmers.
• Agricultural exports earn $9 bil/year.
• Gross value of agricultural production $15 bil
(40% Australia).
• Home to 34 major Indigenous groups.
Current Planning
Total Water
Water Use
Historical Climate
23,417
11,327 (48%)
2030 Median Climate
20,936
10,876 (52%)
2030 Dry Extreme
15,524
8,962 (58%)
(CSIRO Water Availability – 2008)
Ecosystem Health Assessments by Valley, 2004-2007
Key Elements of the Basin Plan
Page 8 of the Concept Statement
Conceptual Cycle
• Identify Key Environmental Assets and Key
Ecosystem Functions.
• Determine environmental water requirements
of the Key Environmental Assets and Key
Ecosystem Functions.
• Calculate possible SDL.
• Assess socio-economic impact.
• Consider alternative scenarios.
• Implement through Environmental Watering
Plan.
• Simplicity belies complexity.
Data Sets
Ecological data
Variable, multiple formats, different emphasis.
Hydrological data
Detailed, comprehensive.
[CSIRO Sustainable Yields – foundation].
Social and Economic data
The big challenge!
MDB Surface and groundwater models
Warrego IQQM
Nebine IQQM
Paroo IQQM
Lower Balonne IQQM
St George SGCS13NT
Barwon-Darling IQQM
Middle Condamine IQQM
Condamine MODFLOW
Menindee IQQM
Bidgee IQQM
Lower Bidgee
MODFLOW
Murray BigMod
Murray MSM
Eastern Mt Lofty Ranges
6*WATERCRESS
Southern Riverine
Plains MODFLOW
Wimmera REALM
Daily
Weekly
Monthly
Avoca REALM
GSM REALM
Ovens REALM Mid Bidgee MODFLOW
Upper Condamine IQQM
Border Rivers MODFLOW
Border R. and Mac B. IQQM
Moonie IQQM
Lower Gwydir MODFLOW
Gwydir IQQM
Upper Namoi MODFLOW
Peel IQQM
Namoi IQQM
Lower Namoi MODFLOW
Macq-Castlereagh 6*IQQM
Macquarie MODFLOW
Lachlan IQQM
Mid-Lachlan MODFLOW
Lower Lachlan MODFLOW
Snowy SIM_V9
ACTEW REALM
Upper Bidgee IQQM
The Role of Social and Economic
Data
• Describe the social and economic fabric of the
Basin [ABS / ABARE / BRS Report – Sep 2009].
• Understand the social and economic impacts of
new public policy at community, regional, Basin,
State and National levels.
• Communicate these impacts using common
metrics and analysis at these scales.
• ‘Best available scientific knowledge and socioeconomic analysis’ (Water Act 2007).
Data Challenges
• Disaggregate national and state economic data to
better understand community and regional
contributions.
• Aggregate local social data to State, Basin and
National impacts.
• Effort to re-aggregate existing data for a ‘non-standard
geography’ (to ABS) that was still under development
(by MDBA).
• Evolution of boundaries impeding time-series analysis.
• Increasing number of boundaries – CSIRO, Natural
Resource Management (CMA’s), water catchments,
Basin Plan regions, ABS geography.
Data Challenges
ABARE AusRegion MDB regions (comparison with WTM regions)
The currency of data
• ‘Best Available’ agricultural and population data
relates to 2005-06.
• Much of the exiting analysis and underlying data
for models relates to 2006 or 2001.
• Challenging to look forward to what might happen
when data could already be considered old.
• For example, the drought has reportedly
changed the face of much of rural Australia in
the last 5 years but the data won’t reflect this,
as yet.
Data issues
• High expectations of social and economic data.
• Economic data and modelling is designed for national
and State purposes but we need to understand the
flow on to local and regional areas.
• As we extend the use of data at what point are we
left with assumptions and no data.
• Yet it is increasingly important to more fully
understand a local areas contribution to the
national wealth.
•Concern that once local area data is aggregated the human
dimension is lost.
How did we progress?
• Took advice early – ABS and ABARE were
two of the first agencies contacted.
• Allowed the ABS to do what they do best –
producing the Context statistical report for the
Basin (with ABARE and BRS).
• Sought regular ongoing advice on developing
the short and long term data needs for the
Basin plan.
• An active dialogue with the ABS (and others)
to progress the issues raised.
The Future
• Strengthening strategic alliances to improve
statistical data in the Basin.
• Defining data needs early to meet future
requirements (Monitoring and Evaluation).
• Better using opportunities (Agricultural Census,
Agricultural Survey).
• Identifying less obvious opportunities (cross
agency agreed priorities, question design).
Phases and Timelines
Feedback
www.mdba.gov.au