IMMIGRATION, AGEING AND
THE CHANGING POPULATION:
IMPLICATIONS FOR DATA
COLLECTION
by
Graeme Hugo
ARC Australian Professorial Fellow
Professor of Geography and Director of the National Centre
for Social Applications of GIS
The University of Adelaide
Presentation to NatStats 2010: Measuring What Counts: Economic
Development, Wellbeing and Progress in 21st Australia, Sydney
Convention and Exhibition Centre
16 September 2010
Outline of Presentation
• Introduction
• The Population Issue in
Australia
• Key Measurement Issues and
Recommendations
• Ageing
• Population and Environment
• Regional Development
• The New Migration
• Conclusion
“Over the next couple of decades nothing
will impact OECD economies more
profoundly than demographic trends and,
chief among them, ageing”
Jean-Philippe Cotis
Chief Economist, OECD
March 2005
Labour Force Age Groups and
Dependency Rates
Source: World Bank, 2006
Current Australian
Demographic Situation, 2009
Source: ABS 2010
Population
22,155,400
Annual Growth Rate
2.0
Annual Growth Rate of 65+
3.0
Net Overseas Migration
277,710
Natural Increase
154,899
% Aged 65+
13.3
Australia’s Population
Dilemma
• On the one hand there is a need to
grow the population because
- A replacement task – 42% of the
present workforce are baby boomers
- Net increases in demand for labour
• On the other there are substantial
environmental constraints which will
be exacerbated by climate change
Structural Ageing:
Australia: Change by Age: 2006 – 2021; 2031 (Series B)
Source: ABS 2008 Projections
180
2006-2021 (25.6 m)
2006-2031 (28.8 m)
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
80
75
70
65
60
55
85+
Age
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
0
Percentage Change
160
Australia: Projected Growth of the
Population by Age, 2021 to 2041
Source: ABS 2005 and 2008 Projections, Series B
2021
2031
2041
2021
2031
2041
2005 Projections
2008 Projections
Number % p.a. growth Number % p.a. growth
Aged 15-64
15,360,738
16,527,365
15,842,185
0.31
18,003,557
0.86
16,271,981
0.27
19,514,934
0.81
Aged 65+
4,471,973
4,395,453
5,780,139
2.60
5,732,080
2.69
6,696,907
1.48
6,759,002
1.66
Australia: Age-Sex Structure of the Population, June 2009
Source: ABS Estimated Resident Population data
100
90
80
Females
Males
70
60
Baby
Boomers
Age
50
40
First echo
30
20
10
0
200,000
Second echo?
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
Persons
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
Baby Boomers 2006
• 27.5% of Australian Population
• 41.8% of Australian Workforce
Addressing Ageing
• There are no silver bullets – no single policy
intervention will counteract the effects of ageing
• Introduction of a number of strategies involving
Productivity, Participation and Population is
essential
• To be most effective they need to be introduced
well before the ageing “crunch”
• Demographically Australia is better placed than
any OECD country to effectively cope with
ageing but it needs to begin appropriate policy
intervention now
Environmental Constraints on
Population
• Long recognised
• Mismatch between water and
population
• Exacerbated by climate change
The Mismatch Between Water and
Population
(Nix 1988, 72)
Far North
Australia
(%)
Southern
Australia
(%)
Population
2
82
Potentially Arable Land
4
65
52
27
Annual Mean Surface Run Off
Trend in Annual Total Rainfall 1960 – 2009
(mm/10years)
Source: CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology 2010
Australia: Rainfall and Population in
2006
% of Total
Australian rainfall trends
2006
2006 population Growth rate
Declining
Stationery
Increasing
89.6
7.23
3.17
17,749,462
1,432,090
628,865
0.98
0.70
-1.57
Rethinking Australia’s
Settlement System
• Most Australians will continue to live in
capital cities and developing more
sustainable large metropolitan areas is an
important national priority
• However we must also consider to what
extent our settlement system is the most
efficient for the Twenty First Century and
do the science to see whether modification
of the settlement system would be
advisable and possible
Issues to be Considered
• Several of fastest developing
sectors of the economy have a
strong non-metropolitan location
(mining and tourism)
• There is already net outmigration
of the Australian-born from capital
cities like Sydney
Issues to be Considered (cont)
• Increased international migration
to non-metropolitan areas
• Environmental constraints of
southeastern Australia
Sydney Statistical Division: Net Internal
and International Migration, 1971 to 2006
Source: NSW Department of Planning
80,000
60,000
Overseas migration
40,000
Number
20,000
0
-20,000
-40,000
Internal migration
Year
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
-60,000
Key issue is that there will be
compromises and trade offs
between imperative for population
growth and environmental
constraints
The New Paradigm of Migration
• Increased significance of temporary
migration
• Greater share of “onshore” migration
• Increased significance of SSRM scheme
• Increased scale of emigration from
Australia
• Increased skill focus of migration
• Increased security focus in international
migration
Data Challenges
•
•
•
•
Ageing Population
Population and Environment
Regional Development
The New Migration
Challenges of Ageing for Data
Collection
• Need for more sensitive breakdown of older population - 65+
too broad
• Too small samples in surveys
• Too much focus on working population
• Need to understand and monitor dynamics of baby boomers
• Need for greater ability to examine changing spatial
distribution
- internal migration data
- need for more sensitivity toward ageing in small area data
• Key issues for data linkage to study dynamics and transitions
• Need to disaggregate effects of ageing on key areas of the
labour market
Population and Environment:
Data Challenges
• Need to be able to integrate environmental
and population data
• Data linkage issues
• Need for more ecologically defined areas for
standard data collection – coastal regions,
high quality agricultural land
• Need to be able to monitor environmental
deterioration and relate to population
• Need to relate population change to climate
change hotspots
Regional Development: Data
Challenges
• Need to be able to identify better the labour
market area surrounding regional centres and
relate all data collections to them to study things
like labour market dynamics
• Ageing in rural Australia – a key issue – over
representation bias in service provision to urban
areas
• Examination of dynamics of population change
- role of international migration
- internal migration
Regional Development: Data
Challenges (cont.)
• Economic dynamics of non-metropolitan areas
not well captured
• Measuring social capital
• Indigenous population of particular significance
• Develop potential of mesh blocks
• Measuring regional identification, social
catchments and communities of interest
• Measuring service provision in regions
International Migration Issues
• Alternative definition of the national population
• Failure to change thinking on measurement of migration
and settlement to take account of transnationalism
• Need for more regional settlement sensitivity in data
collection on migration
• Failure to identify visa categories in migrant data
collections
• Data linkage possibilities
• Focus on migration rather than settlement in
international migration
• Need for a study of Australian diaspora
Alternative Definitions of the
National Population
• Citizens resident on the night of the
census;
• Citizens absent on the night of the census
but whose households provide information
on them;
• Permanent residents who are resident on
the night of the census.
Diagrammatic Representation of
Different National Populations
Source: Hugo 2007, p.354
In international migration research there has been
a paradigm shift from a focus away from
traditional conceptualisations of migration as a
permanent shift from one country to another
toward transnationalism. Transnationalism
focuses on the linkages which are set up
between origins and destinations by migration,
including non permanent movements. Ways of
measuring stocks of migrants however remain
the same.
Temporary Migrants either…
• Included within “permanent” migrant
populations
• Ignored altogether
• Included with short term tourists as
visitors
Need to modify current citizenship
question in census to identify
the type of migrants from the
overseas-born
Australia: Number of Persons Temporarily
Present, 1997 to 2009 as at 30th June
Source: DIAC Population Flows: Immigration Aspects, various issues
1,000,000
900,000
800,000
700,000
Number
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Year
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Impact of non permanent
population on labour market,
housing market etc needs to be
ascertained
Data Linkage Possibilities
• Very promising developments of linking
2006 census data with Settlement Data
Base information
• New technological developments make it
more possible
• Confidentiality issues
• Other data sets – Medicare, Taxation etc.
Need for a Focus on Settlement
• Australia is one of the countries most influenced
by migration. There is a key responsibility to
facilitate settlement. Responsibility does not
stop on arrival of migrants
• Post arrival services have declined
• Key issues of refugee-humanitarian settler and
other vulnerable groups
• General agreement among migration scholars
that longitudinal approaches are the best way to
understand the adjustment processes and to
develop effective policies to assist it
An Australian Diaspora?
• One million or more Australian’s living and
working overseas
• Little known about them
• Highly skilled group
• Potential to engage in Australia –
permanent, temporary and virtual return
A Census of the Australian
Diaspora?
• 2010 international round of censuses
• Potential for aggregating the unit record
data from all other countries where there
are Australian’s present
• Need to do this now
• International cooperation through strong
cooperative linkages between statistical
agencies
The Australian Population
Issue: What is Needed?
• Currently there is an unproductive debate between
“pro growth” and “stop growth” lobbies
• There must be trade offs and compromises which
facilitate growth with sustainability, informed by
the best information and knowledge available
across all relevant disciplines
• Regardless, there will be substantial continued
population growth over the next two decades but
we need to carefully consider
(a) How much growth and not adopt
unsubstantiated aspirational population targets?
(b) Where is that growth best located?
• Data will be crucial to this consideration
• Australia is demographically better placed than most
OECD countries to cope with economic, demographic
and environmental changes over the next two decades
• The last National Inquiry into Australia’s population was
in 1971 and the time is appropriate for an informed
multidisciplinary investigation into Australia’s future
population
• This investigation should engage the best science but at
the same time have a broad engagement with the views
of the total community
• There is a large potential to be bipartisan in population
policy
• Crucial importance of developing a vision of the
population of the future which is sustainable
Conclusion
• Australia has been very well served by its statistical system in
population
• Data collection needs to not only keep pace with social,
economic and demographic change but be ahead of it so it
can chart its dynamics
• Population has always been a national issue of major
significance but it has recently been given a higher profile
• It is likely that there will be a substantial national discussion
on migration issues and for the first time we may have a
national population policy
• The population debate more than most other areas of public
policy has been ill informed and influenced by interest groups
• It is of critical significance that both the debate and the policy
are informed by relevant and timely information