The Development of Asia:
Risk and Returns for Australia
NatStats 2010 Conference
Philip Lowe
Reserve Bank of Australia
Sydney, 16 September 2010
Terms of Trade*
2007/08 = 100, quarterly
Index
Index
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
2010
1950
1965
1980
* Annual data are used prior to 1959
Sources: ABS; RBA
1995
Capital Stock
Annual percentage change
%
%
Australia*
4
4
2
2
US**
0
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
* Excluding livestock and orchards and private dwellings
** Non-residential fixed assets
Sources: ABS; RBA; Thomson Reuters
2007
0
2010
Urbanisation Rate
%
%
40
40
China
30
30
20
20
10
10
2008
1978
Source: World Bank
1988
1998
Australian GDP Growth – Correlations
Rolling correlation of real quarterly growth, 10-year window


US
0.6
0.6
China
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
2010
1990
1995
Sources: ABS; BEA; CEIC; RBA
2000
2005
India – Average GDP Growth
%
%
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
1960s
1970s
Sources: CEIC; RBA
1980s
1990s
2000s
Urbanisation Rate
%
%
40
40
China
30
30
India
20
20
10
10
2008
1978
Source: World Bank
1988
1998
Steel Consumption
Mt
Mt
400
400
China
200
200
India
0
1997
2000
Sources: ABARE; World Steel
2003
2006
2009
0
Protein Consumption
Grams per capita per day, 1961–2007
g
g
120
120
US
100
100
China
80
80
Japan
60
60
India
40
40
20
50
500
5 000
Real GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$) – log scale
20
50 000
Sources: Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations; World Bank
Exports by Destination*
Share of total exports; current prices
%
%
Japan
20
20
China
US
10
10
South Korea
UK
0
1996
2003
* RBA estimates for 2010
Sources: ABS; RBA
India
2010
1996
2003
0
2010
Resource Exports
Share of total exports, current prices
%
%
20
20
Coal, coke & briquettes
15
15
10
10
5
0
5
Iron ore
1998
Sources: ABS; RBA
LNG
2002
2006
2010
0
Australia – Productivity and Income
Chain volumes; March 1990 = 100
Index
Index
160
160
GNI per hour worked
150
150
140
140
130
130
GDP per hour worked
120
120
110
110
100
100
90
1990
1994
Source: ABS
1998
2002
2006
90
2010
Household Credit Growth
Six-month-ended annualised percentage change
%
%
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
1990
Source: RBA
1995
2000
2005
0
2010
The Development of Asia:
Risk and Returns for Australia
NatStats 2010 Conference
Philip Lowe
Reserve Bank of Australia
Sydney, 16 September 2010