Statisticians: Reluctant
Revolutionaries for the 21st
Century
How statistics will change the world,
and the world will change statistics.
Jon.Hall@abs.gov.au
The Evolution of Revolution
Revolutionary Thinking
1. Statistics Are Political: Our Measurements Shape Our
Future
2. Discussion About Statistics Can Revitalise Democracy
And Heal Societal Rifts
3. Why Understanding Subjective Wellbeing Will Change
Everything
Revolutionary Thinking
1. StatisticsWhat
Are Political:
Our Measurements
do we
all – as
Shape Our Future
2.
users and producers
ofAbout
dataStatistics
– need
do
Discussion
Can to
Revitalise
Democracy
And Heal
Rifts
to win
theSocietal
revolution?
3. Why Understanding Subjective Wellbeing Will
Change Everything
The Children of the Revolution
“Too much and too long, we seem to have surrendered community excellence and
community values in the mere accumulation of material things. Our gross national
product ... if we should judge America by that - counts air pollution and cigarette
advertising, and ambulances to clear our highways of carnage. It counts special
locks for our doors and the jails for those who break them. It counts the destruction
of our redwoods and the loss of our natural wonder in chaotic sprawl. It counts
napalm and the cost of a nuclear warhead, and armored cars for police who fight
riots in our streets. It counts Whitman's rifle and Speck's knife, and the television
programs which glorify violence in order to sell toys to our children.
Yet the gross national product does not allow for the health of our children, the
quality of their education, or the joy of their play. It does not include the beauty of
our poetry or the strength of our marriages; the intelligence of our public debate or
the integrity of our public officials. It measures neither our wit nor our courage;
neither our wisdom nor our learning; neither our compassion nor our devotion to
our country; it measures everything, in short, except that which makes life
worthwhile. And it tells us everything about America except why we are proud that
we are Americans.”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=77IdKFqXbUY
The Children of the Revolution
The Children of the Revolution
The Children of the Revolution
The Children of the Revolution
The Children of the Revolution
The Children of the Revolution
The Children of the Revolution
1. Reshaping the Future – or why
apolitical statistics are anything
but…
1. Reshaping the Future
“What we measure affects what we do. If we have the
wrong metrics, we will strive for the wrong things. In the
quest to increase GDP, we may end up with a society in
which most citizens have become worse off.”
Joseph Stiglitz, 2009
1. Reshaping the Future
“The welfare of a nation can scarcely be inferred from
a measurement of national income.”
Simon Kuznets, 1934
1. Reshaping the Future
But if the choice of measures are so inherently
political then what does that mean for a national
statistical service?
1. Reshaping the Future
But if the choice of measures are so inherently
political then what does that mean for a national
statistical service?
•
•
Who takes the decision?
And how is it taken?
1.
Reshaping
Future
The
decision isthe
beyond
‘
But if the choice
of measures…
are it
so inherently
statistics’
must
political reflect
then what societal
does that mean
for a national
values
and
statistical service?
•
•
goals. It’s a decision that
Who takesgoes
the decision?
to the heart of
And how is it taken?
democracy
1. Reshaping the Future
A luxury for the rich? …. But a necessity for the poor.
1. Reshaping the Future
A luxury for the rich? …. But a necessity for the poor.
• Little conversation about what development means ….
At least among developing countries
1. Reshaping the Future
A luxury for the rich? …. But a necessity for the poor.
• Little conversation about what development means ….
At least among developing countries
• Multiple measurement systems driven by requirements
of different donors (usually driven by concerns back
home … attribution versus contribution)
1. Reshaping the Future
A luxury for the rich? …. But a necessity for the poor.
• Little conversation about what development means ….
At least among developing countries
• Multiple measurement systems driven by requirements
of different donors (usually driven by concerns back
home … attribution versus contribution)
• MDGs an international compromise to highlight
awareness – but locally owned, locally relevant
measures are also needed
1. Reshaping the Future
A luxury for the rich? …. But a necessity for the poor.
• Countries should decide for themselves what
development means to them and how best to measure
it. Development policy among donors should align with
this … rather than vice versa
1. Reshaping the Future
2. Democracy in the Information
Age
Imagine ….
2. Democracy in the Information
Age
Imagine a society where:
• Both left and right agreed to a set of measurable outcomes, and political
debate focussed on how best to achieve them.
2. Democracy in the Information
Age
Imagine a society where:
• Both left and right agreed to a set of measurable outcomes, and political
debate focussed on how best to achieve them.
“What has also been lost is our sense of common purpose - our sense of
higher purpose. And that's what we have to restore.
We may not agree on abortion, but surely we can agree on reducing the
number of unwanted pregnancies in this country. “
Barack Obama, 2008
2. Democracy in the Information
Age
Imagine a society where
• Both left and right agreed to a set of measurable outcomes, and political
debate focussed on how best to achieve them.
• We had a single common trusted information-base. Where arguments
would focus on what to do about the numbers, not which numbers to us.
2. Democracy in the Information
Age
Imagine a society where
• Both left and right agreed to a set of measurable outcomes, and political
debate focussed on how best to achieve them.
• We had a single common trusted information-base. Where arguments
would focus on what to do about the numbers, not which numbers to us.
• Every time a politician announced what the latest policy means for the
economy, the media and voters would ask “ So what? What does it mean
for our wellbeing?”
2. Democracy in the Information
Age
An array of evidence points to the power of discussing data as a way to build
common understanding and trust
2. Democracy in the Information
Age
An array of evidence points to the power of discussing data as a way to build
common understanding and trust
• Economic and Social Statisticians
2. Democracy in the Information
Age
An array of evidence points to the power of discussing data as a way to build
common understanding and trust
• Economic and Social Statisticians
• Statisticians and Policy People
2. Democracy in the Information
Age
An array of evidence points to the power of discussing data as a way to build
common understanding and trust
• Economic and Social Statisticians
• Statisticians and Policy People
• White supremacists and the victims of their prejudice
3. Subjective Wellbeing – the New
Business of Government
From Bhutan to the UK, governments are getting serious about measuring
“happiness” … “subjective wellbeing:” … “flourishing societies”
“To those who say that all this sounds like a distraction from the serious
business of government, I say finding out what will really improve lives and
acting on it is the serious business of government."
David Cameron, 2010
3. Subjective Wellbeing – the New
Business of Government
From Bhutan to the UK, governments are getting serious about measuring
“happiness” … “subjective wellbeing:” … “flourishing societies”
A new science…. but we know that wellbeing matters
3. Subjective Wellbeing – the New
Business of Government
From Bhutan to the UK, governments are getting
serious about measuring “happiness” …
“subjective wellbeing:” … “flourishing societies”
A new science…. but we know that wellbeing
matters
3. Subjective Wellbeing – the New
Business of Government
From Bhutan to the UK, governments are getting serious
about measuring “happiness” … “subjective wellbeing:”
… “flourishing societies”
A new science…. But we know that wellbeing matters
3. Subjective Wellbeing – the New
Business of Government
From Bhutan to the UK, governments are getting serious about measuring
“happiness” … “subjective wellbeing:” … “flourishing societies”
A new science…. but we know that wellbeing matters
a. Different conversations
3. Subjective Wellbeing – the New
Business of Government
From Bhutan to the UK, governments are getting serious about measuring
“happiness” … “subjective wellbeing:” … “flourishing societies”
A new science…. but we know that wellbeing matters
a. Different conversations
b. Different behaviours & policies e.g. commuting or police investigations
3. Subjective Wellbeing – the New
Business of Government
From Bhutan to the UK, governments are getting serious about measuring
“happiness” … “subjective wellbeing:” … “flourishing societies”
A new science…. but we know that wellbeing matters
By 2030…? Radical reform of the how we understand policy…
3. Subjective Wellbeing – the New
Business of Government
Consider education policy.
To educate and build socially inclusive communities where all Australians have
the opportunity to reach their full potential and to actively participate in a
rewarding economic and social life.
DEEWR, 2011
3. Subjective Wellbeing – the New
Business of Government
Consider education policy.
To educate and build socially inclusive communities where all Australians have
the opportunity to reach their full potential and to actively participate in a
rewarding economic and social life.
DEEWR, 2011
But that requires understanding:
1) What is a “ rewarding” life?
3. Subjective Wellbeing – the New
Business of Government
Consider education policy.
To educate and build socially inclusive communities where all Australians have
the opportunity to reach their full potential and to actively participate in a
rewarding economic and social life.
DEEWR, 2011
But that requires understanding:
1) What is a “ rewarding” life?
2) How education contributes to broader wellbeing. What are the social
outcomes of learning?
3. Subjective Wellbeing – the New
Business
of
Government
Which requires
Consider education policy.
new measures. We
To educate and build socially inclusive communities where all Australians have
the opportunity to manage
reach their full potential
and to actively
participate in a
what
we
rewarding economic and social life.
measure.
DEEWR, 2011
But that requires understanding
1) What is a “ rewarding” life
2) How education contributes to broader wellbeing. What are the social
outcomes of learning?
Mission Impossible?
“Revolution only needs good dreamers who remember
their dreams.”
Tennesee Williams
Mission Impossible?
“Revolution only needs good dreamers who remember
their dreams.”
Tennesee Williams.
“The most radical revolutionary will become a
conservative the day after the revolution.”
Hannah Arendt.
Mission Impossible?
We assist and encourage informed decision making, research
and discussion within governments and the community, by leading a
high quality, objective and responsive national statistical service.
Mission Impossible?
We assist and encourage informed decision making, research
and discussion within governments and the community, by leading a
high quality, objective and responsive national statistical service.
Mission Impossible?
We assist and encourage informed decision making, research
and discussion within governments and the community, by leading a
high quality, objective and responsive national statistical service.
• Do we really?
Mission Impossible?
We assist and encourage informed decision making, research
and discussion within governments and the community, by leading a
high quality, objective and responsive national statistical service.
• Do we really?
Mission Impossible?
We are bombarded by multiple information from multiple sources
"...in an information-rich world, the wealth of information means a dearth of
something else: a scarcity of whatever it is that information consumes. What
information consumes is rather obvious: it consumes the attention of its
recipients. Hence a wealth of information creates a poverty of attention and a
need to allocate that attention efficiently among the overabundance of
information sources that might consume it.“
Herbert Simon, 1971
Mission Impossible?
How can an NSS make the shift from information
providers to knowledge builders?
Mission Impossible?
Mission Impossible?
Mission Impossible?
We assist and encourage informed decision making, research
and discussion within governments and the community, by leading a
high quality, objective and responsive national statistical service.
Mission Impossible?
We assist and encourage informed decision making, research
and discussion within governments and the community, by leading a
high quality, objective and responsive national statistical service.
• Strengthen relationships with those who use data, especially the
media
Mission Impossible?
We assist and encourage informed decision making, research
and discussion within governments and the community, by leading a
high quality, objective and responsive national statistical service.
Recognise that we don’t just inform decision making, our statistics can
set the terms of the debate. How do we make sure we are measuring
the things that matter?
Mission Impossible?
We assist and encourage informed decision making, research
and discussion within governments and the community, by leading a
high quality, objective and responsive national statistical service.
Engaging seriously in the work around wellbeing
We used to think that revolutions are the
cause of change. Actually it is the other
way around: change prepares the ground
for revolution.
Eric Hoffer