Urban Commerce and
Security Study (U-CASS)
Urban Commerce and Security
Study (U-CASS)
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Urban Commerce and
Security Study (U-CASS)
Problem Statement
• Problem: There is often a perceived conflict
between freedom of economic activity and
the need for increased security. Nowhere is
this more apparent than in urban areas such
as Lower Manhattan
– Conflicting goals:
• Enhance economic activity
• Prevent terrorist attacks
– But, are they always
conflicting?
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Urban Commerce and
Security Study (U-CASS)
Problem Statement
• Related problem arises in much more general
settings involving security.
• Example:
– Crime outside Manhattan
hotel
– Police close off several-squareblock area around hotel
– Severe impact on business at
nearby shops and restaurants
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Urban Commerce and
Security Study (U-CASS)
Problem Statement
• Related problem arises in much more general
settings involving security.
• Example:
– Gas smell in a downtown building
– Fire department orders evacuation
of building and reroutes traffic in
the neighborhood
– Work at 100s of offices in the
building and commerce in the area are
severely affected
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Urban Commerce and
Security Study (U-CASS)
Problem Statement
• Related problem arises in much more general
settings involving security.
• Example:
– High-rise apartment building
installs turnstyle-type access control;
residents required to carry access cards
even when leaving for short time
– Some tenants find this annoying
– Others feel safer and may even be willing to
pay more rent thanks to this
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Urban Commerce and
Security Study (U-CASS)
Problem Statement
• U-CASS aims to:
– Assess economic impact of security
initiatives
– Develop general approach to understanding
interplay between security and commerce
– Develop approach with wide applicability to
urban areas nationwide
– Identify ways to minimize economic impact
of security initiatives
– Identify situations where increased security
enhances economic activity
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Urban Commerce and
Security Study (U-CASS)
U-CASS Research
Methodology
• Ultimate Project Goal: Develop a decision
support tool that planners and decision
makers can use to make choices about
security initiatives/countermeasures
• Tool based on risk and economic analysis
• Usable to compare security measures or
packages (“portfolios”) of security measures
as to risk and economic consequences
• Applicable to a variety of urban areas
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Urban Commerce and
Security Study (U-CASS)
Research Challenges
• Challenge 1: Not much relevant methodology
• Considerably less work on economic impacts
of security policies and practices
• Security Economics: Activities that affect,
prevent, or mitigate insecurity in the
economy; use of tools to analyze dynamics of
security
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Urban Commerce and
Security Study (U-CASS)
Research Challenges
• Challenge 2: Metrics
– How measure things like inconvenience,
willingness to accept delays, etc.?
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Urban Commerce and
Security Study (U-CASS)
Research Challenges
• Challenge 2: Metrics
– Many tools of economic modeling
depend on “interval” or “ratio scales”
whereas we may only be able to
expect “ordinal scale” responses:
• Is this effect large, medium, or small?
• Is this green, blue, yellow, orange, or
red?
– If we only have ordinal scales, can we
use them in our economic modeling?
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Urban Commerce and
Security Study (U-CASS)
Research Challenges
• Challenge 3: Infrequent Events
– There is a considerable
literature on economics and
security when events have a
reasonable frequency of
occurring
– Then, recurrence of events
allows for testing models and
tools.
– Example: shoplifting
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Urban Commerce and
Security Study (U-CASS)
Research Challenges
• Challenge 4: Data Uncertainty
– Example: Put metal detector in
store entrance
– How does this change
probability a person will enter
the store?
– Less likely because of long lines?
– More likely because it seems
store is safer?
– Level of accuracy of these
probabilities affects conclusions
about resulting economic
activity.
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Urban Commerce and
Security Study (U-CASS)
Research Challenges
• Challenge 5: Indirect Impacts:
• Case in point: Economic impacts of closing off
Pennsylvania Ave. in front of the White House
(Hoffman, Chalk, Liston, Brennan, 2000)
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Urban Commerce and
Security Study (U-CASS)
Research Challenges
• Challenge 6: Dependence on input from
Individuals and Businesses
– Input often relatively subjective
– Hard to quantify
– Inconsistent responses
– Subject to bias
– Requires careful formulation of questions or
you get the wrong information
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Urban Commerce and
Security Study (U-CASS)
Research Challenges
• Challenge 7: Measuring the Benefits of Security
– Most of the literature on economics and security has
focused on costs of security.
– Virtually no work on benefits of security investments
from economic point of view.
– Difficulty of making benefits precise.
– Differing time periods over which to assess benefits
– Complexity of analyzing indirect benefits from security
initiatives
– Major challenge to U-CASS project: Develop
methodologies for assessing economic benefits of
new security initiatives
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Urban Commerce and
Security Study (U-CASS)
U-CASS Research
Methodology
• Information Gathering Stage:
– Developed sets of alternative security
initiatives/countermeasures:
• Video surveillance (cameras)
• Random vehicle inspections
• Permanent street closures to
traffic
• Temporary perimeters & access
control
• Random bag inspection
• Increased visible presence of police
• X-rays & magnetometers in building lobbies
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Urban Commerce and
Security Study (U-CASS)
U-CASS Research
Methodology
• Information Gathering Stage:
– Developed sample scenarios:
•
•
•
•
•
Teams of shooters
Subway chemical agent
Subway bomb
Bus bomb
Street bomber
Mumbai attacks
Credit: Indiaexpress.com
Credit:
Commons.Wikipedia.org
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Urban Commerce and
Security Study (U-CASS)
• Using Our Tool:
U-CASS Research
Methodology
– First choose a scenario to consider
– Our tool is designed to recommend countermeasures
that might be put in place, based on the scenario
– Choose a countermeasure or set of countermeasures
– Measure cost/benefit of the countermeasures chosen by
considering
• Capital and operating costs of the countermeasures
• Economic costs and benefits of the implementation
• Reduction in risk of the scenario being realized and
resulting reduction in expected costs of an attack.
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Urban Commerce and
Security Study (U-CASS)
U-CASS Research
Methodology
• Summary of the PIE Approach:
– Selection of a scenario
– Selection of countermeasure or “portfolio” of
countermeasures
– Discrete event simulation to understand local
economic impacts of portfolio of countermeasures
– Risk analysis to determine reduction in risk of the
scenario given the countermeasures
– Computable general equilibrium modeling to
understand regional/global economic
impact stemming from local impact
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Estimate
scenarios
Threat
Risk
Estimate
scenarios
Risk
Estimate
scenarios Reduction
Risk
Reduction
Risk
Reduction
Reduction
Estimate
Estimate
Direct
Estimate
Direct
Estimate
Operations&
Direct
Generate
Operations&
Capital
Maintenance
Generate
Operations&
CounterMaintenance
Generate
Operations&
Costs
CounterMaintenance
Generate
measures
Costs
CounterMaintenance
measures
Costs
Countermeasures
Costs
measures
W ors e
10 0%
Cha nc e th at thre at s u cc eed s
For each threat
For each threat
For
each
countermeasure
For
each
threat
Generate
For
each
countermeasure
For
each
threat
Generate
For
each
countermeasure
Threat
Generate
For
each
countermeasure
Threat
Generate Estimate
scenarios
Integrate
Threat
P1
P2
P3
Determine
Determine
Individual
Determine
Individual
Determine
Responses
Individual
Responses
Individual
Responses
Responses
Compute
Compute
Regional
Compute
Regional
Economic
Compute
Regional
Economic
Equilibrium
Regional
Economic
Equilibrium
Economic
Equilibrium
Equilibrium
Better
Integrate
Individual
Integrate
Individual
Responses
Integrate
Individual
Responses
Individual
Responses
Responses
Determine
Determine
Local
Determine
Local
Determine
Economic
Local
Economic
Local
Impact
Economic
Impact
Economic
Impact
Impact
Better
Combined Costs
Determine
Non-monetary
Impacts
P5
P 1 +P 2
Worse
PIE:
End User
Interface
Determine
Determine
Regional
Determine
Regional
Economic
Regional
Economic
Impact
Economic
Impact
Determine
Impact
Regional
Economic
Impact
Monetize
Spillover
Costs
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Urban Commerce and
Security Study (U-CASS)
U-CASS Research
Methodology
• Understanding economic activity in a region:
– “Normal activity”
– Activity after a countermeasure
• Developed a simulation tool:
– Discrete event simulation
– One version: based on ARENA
simulation software
– Another version based on OMNet++
simulation software
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Urban Commerce and
Security Study (U-CASS)
U-CASS Research
Methodology
• Developed a simulation tool:
• CCICADA has extensive experience with
ARENA
– But ARENA is not open-source; not usable
over the web
– OMNET++ can be used to create a webenabled decision support tool.
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Urban Commerce and
Security Study (U-CASS)
U-CASS Research
Methodology
• Developed a simulation tool:
• ARENA and OMNet++
– Input: scenario and a security initiative
– Input: information about probabilities of
different movements/behaviors
• If a pedestrian passes a restaurant, what is
probability she will go inside?
• If a car finds a street blocked, what is
probability it will make a right turn and
seek a parallel street?
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Urban Commerce and
Security Study (U-CASS)
U-CASS Research
Methodology
• Developed a simulation tool:
• ARENA and OMNet++:
– Output: Changes in
level of economic
activity
• After an hour
• After a day
• After a year
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Urban Commerce and
Security Study (U-CASS)
U-CASS Research
Methodology
• Developed a simulation tool:
• How did we get information about the inputs?
– Extensive survey using Mechanical Turk +
interviews + USBLS + USDOT
– Four kinds of individuals considered in survey +
simulation:
• Residents
• Those who work in the region
• Shopowners
• Those who come to the region for recreation or
shopping
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Urban Commerce and
Security Study (U-CASS)
U-CASS Research
Methodology
• Modeling and Simulation
Required extensive data gathering to populate
the model: students walking the streets; survey
A snapshot from our WTC- area simulation:
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Simulation Model – User Interface
For any side of a
street, you can
close it, place a
bag check point
on it, or place
security
cameras.
For a faster
animation, a smaller
region may be
looked at instead.
Subway bag
checks can be
employed either
manually or
periodically by
inputting frequency
and duration.
Settings related to
quality and display of
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output.
Simulation Model - Animation
• All pedestrian life is
simulated.
• Workers, tourists/
shoppers and
residents are the
pedestrian categories.
• Main focus is on
commercial life.
• Online and offline
outputs can be
obtained regarding
economic and
pedestrian activity on a
street.
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Simulation Model – Offline Output
Offline output available after simulation showing
average number of people on the street, and average
hourly transaction.
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Urban Commerce and
Security Study (U-CASS)
U-CASS Research
Methodology
• Economic Analysis
– Estimate direct cost of a
countermeasure: capital costs +
operating & maintenance costs
– Combine the direct costs with
the local economic costs
computed from the simulation
model.
– Then use a computable general
equilibrium analysis to estimate
the ripple effect on the entire
economy
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Urban Commerce and
Security Study (U-CASS)
U-CASS Research
Methodology
• Economic Analysis
– CGE is a complex, nonlinear model of the
regional economy
– Sometimes we add the “non-monetary” or
“spillover” costs such as:
•
•
•
•
Discomfort people feel
Congestion
Delays
Environmental changes
– Note: “discomfort” could be negative: People
feeling safer (so a “positive” impact of security
– These spillover costs can be “monetized” and fed
into the CGE.
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Urban Commerce and
Security Study (U-CASS)
U-CASS Research
Methodology
Illustrating the Simulation
•We worked on an area of Lower Manhattan
around the World Trade Center site.
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Urban Commerce and
Security Study (U-CASS)
Urban Commerce and
Security Study (U-CASS)
Urban Commerce and
Security Study (U-CASS)
Urban Commerce and
Security Study (U-CASS)
Urban Commerce and
Security Study (U-CASS)
Urban Commerce and
Security Study (U-CASS)
U-CASS Summary
Develop a decision support tool that planners
and decision makers can use to make choices
about security initiatives/countermeasures
– Achieve a balance between increased security and
maintaining or improving economic vitality
– Ultimately using this tool to sustain our urban
environments and the quality of life for those
within it.
» THANK YOU
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