UNIT 2 The Asset Allocation Decision Overview This Unit will examine the factors contributing to investment decisions. Chapter 1 introduced us to Mike, a young professional who is starting his investment portfolio. We also examined the connection between risk and return and the importance of managing risk and return. In this unit, we will explore the portfolio management process, that is, the steps involved in deriving an investment strategy. We will examine the importance of setting investment goals and objectives in order to increase the probability of success overtime. This Unit will first define the Investor Lifecycle, and illustrate how goals and objectives change over an individual's lifetime. This will lead into the four step portfolio management process and the construction of a policy statement, which outlines the investment objectives and constraints. The Unit will conclude by demonstrating how setting investment goals and objectives determines the distribution of investors' wealth. Unit 1 Learning Objectives At the end of this unit students should be able to: Outline the asset allocation process. Contribute to the construction of a Policy Statement based on an assessment of given individual needs. This Unit is divided into three sessions as follows: Session 2.1: The Investor Life Cycle Session 2.2: Portfolio Management Process Session 2.3: Policy Statement Session 2.4: Asset Allocation Reading Resources Required Reading Faure, P. D. (2013). Four phases of the life-cycle. In Investments: An Introduction (pp. 7-33). Quoin Institue Ltd. http://bookboon.com/en/investments-an-introduction-ebook Session 2.1 The Investor Life Cycle Introduction An individual's needs and wants change over time, a person's demands at 25 will change as their circumstances change. Therefore, their financial planning will also adjust to meet these needs. This Unit will examine each phase of an investor's life and illustrate how their investment decisions will amend to meet these needs. Session 2.1 Objectives On completion of this session, you will be able to: Demonstrate knowledge of how investment goals changes over a person's life cycle Assess asset allocation strategies that can be applied at each phase The Individual Investor Life Cycle View the following resource on the Investment Life Cycle Investment Life Cycle https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v4zr-rJbEj4 As an individual moves from early career to retirement, financial planning and status will adjust to suit the individual's needs. The video above provides an overview of the investment lifecycle. This can be illustrated as below: (Reilly & Brown, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management, 2012) The three phases of the investment lifecycle are: 1. The accumulation phase is defined as the early-to-mid-years of career. 2. Consolidation phase: Past midpoint of careers. Earnings greater than expenses 3. Spending/Gifting phase: Begins after retirement Investment goals change as an individual transitions from phase to phase. Mike from Unit 1 for example will be in the accumulation phase, as defined by his age and stage in his career. Thus, his focus will be to satisfy his immediate needs. It is expected that his net worth will be small, and his debt may be heavy. Mike is in a healthy position to hold securities for the long run i.e. his investment horizon is long term; therefore, he might be willing to take moderately high risks in order to make above average returns. As Mike transitions to the Consolidation Phase in his mid-thirties, it is expected that he would have paid off most of his outstanding debt, and his earning will then safely exceed his expenses. Thee investment horizon is still relatively long, so moderately high risk investments are still attractive. The Consolidation Phase lasts from mid-thirties until retirement, when the Spending and Gifting Phase begins. In retirement living expenses are covered by retirement plans, pension and other prior investments. The overall investment portfolio in this phase will be less risky, but still require growth investments. Learning Activity 2.1 How would the investment advice you give your 24 year old cousin differ from the investment advice you give you 68 year old grandmother? What accounts for these differences? Session Summary Now that we have examined how investors' needs change over their lifetime, we can now examine the process of analysing the investment portfolio in each stage. The following session will walk through the four stages of the portfolio management process. Session 2.2 The Portfolio Management Process Introduction Portfolio Managers follow a four step process in order to decide how to distribute an Investor's assets. This involves first examining the needs of the Investor, then the environment under which the investments take place, followed by the implementation of the investment strategy and the continuous evaluation and analysis of the portfolio. Session 2.2 Objectives At the end of this session, you will be able to: Explain the four steps of the portfolio management process The Portfolio Management Process Session Summary The four step management process provides a framework for assessing the investor's needs and establishing a strategy to ensuring that these needs are met. In the next session we will examine the foundation of this process, the policy statement. Session 2.3 The Policy Statement “A goal without a plan is just a wish.” ― Antoine de Saint-Exupéry Introduction A policy statement provides a road map for achieving the investor's goals. The policy statement guides the portfolio manager towards meeting the investor's needs by laying out the goals, constraints and risk appetite of the investor. Given this Information, the portfolio manager will be able to make educated investment decisions on the Investor's behalf. Session 2.3 On completion of this session you will be able to: Outline the steps involved in constructing a policy statement Identify the critical components of policy statement Assess the usefulness of a policy statement in the planning process The Need for a Portfolio Statement 1. Understand investor’s needs and articulate realistic investment objectives and constraints What are the real risks of an adverse financial outcome, and what emotional reactions will I have? How knowledgeable am I about investments and the financial markets? What other capital or income sources do I have? How important is this particular portfolio to my overall financial position? What, if any, legal restrictions affect me? How would any unanticipated portfolio value change might affect my investment policy? 2. Sets standards for evaluating portfolio performance The statement provides a comparison standard in judging the performance of the portfolio manager. A benchmark portfolio or comparison standard is used to reflect the risk an return objectives specified in the policy statement. It should act as a starting point for periodic portfolio review and client communication with the manager. 3. Other Benefits It helps reduces the possibility of inappropriate or unethical behavior on the part of the portfolio manager. A clearly written policy statement will help create seamless transition from one money manager to another without costly delays. It also provides the framework to help resolve any potential disagreements between the client and the manager. Constructing the Portfolio Statement Constructing the policy statement begins with a profile analysis of the investor’s current and future financial situations and a discussion of investment objectives and constraints, and any unique needs the investor might be faced with. Investment Objectives Risk Objectives Risk objective should be based on investor’s ability to take risk and willingness to take risk. • Risk tolerance depends on an investor’s current net worth and income expectations and age. – More net worth allows more risk taking – Younger people can take more risk • A careful analysis of the client’s risk tolerance should precede any discussion of return objectives. Return Objectives The return objective may be stated in terms of an absolute or a relative percentage return . •Capital Preservation: Minimize risk of real losses •Capital Appreciation: Growth of the portfolio in real terms to meet future need •Current Income: Focus is in generating income rather than capital gains •Total Return: Increase portfolio value by capital gains and by reinvesting current income with Risk Objectives Investment Constraints The following factors might place limits on the investor's ability to take maximum risks on their investments: Liquidity Needs Vary between investors depending upon age, employment, tax status, etc. Planned vacation expenses and house down payment are some of the liquidity needs. Time Horizons Influences liquidity needs and risk tolerance. Longer investment horizons generally requires less liquidity and more risk tolerance. Two general time horizons are pre-retirement and post-retirement periods. Tax Concerns Capital gains or losses: Taxed differently from income Unrealized capital gains: Reflect price appreciation of currently held assets that have not yet been sold Realized capital gains: When the asset has been sold at a profit Trade-off between taxes and diversification: Tax consequences of selling company stock for diversification purposes Unique Needs and Preferences Personal preferences such as socially conscious investments could influence investment choice. Time constraints or lack of expertise for managing the portfolio may require professional management. Large investment in employer’s stock may require consideration of diversification needs. Institutional investors' needs. USEFUL RESOURCES The following resource provides information on the components of a policy statement. Elements of an Investment Policy Statement for Individual Investors: http://www.cfapubs.org/doi/pdf/10.2469/ccb.v2010.n12.1 Session Summary Setting the ground for investment decisions, the portfolio manager can now distribute the assets of the investor among the various investment tools available in the market. In the next session, we will conclude the unit by exploring this process. Session 2.4 The Asset Allocation Process Introduction Once a policy statement and an investment strategy have been established, the portfolio manager can now distribute the investor's wealth in order to balance risk and returns i.e. Asset Allocation. Session Objectives At the end of this session, you will be able to: - Explain the importance of asset allocation strategies The Importance of Asset Allocation Asset Allocation: It is the process of deciding how to distribute an investor’s wealth among different countries and asset classes for investment purposes. Asset Class: It refers to the group of securities that have similar characteristics, attributes, and risk/return relationships. An investment strategy is based on four decisions 1. What asset classes to consider for investment 2. What policy weights to assign to each eligible class 3. What allocation ranges are allowed based on policy weights 4. What specific securities to purchase for the portfolio USEFUL RESOURCES The following resources provide information on the asset allocation decision: Asset Allocation-http://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/assetallocation.asp The Asset Allocation Decision: http://investorsolutions.com/our-books/investment-strategies-for-the-21st-century/chapter-6the-asset-allocation-decision/ Learning Activity 2.2 Use the Internet to find home pages for some financial-planning firms. What strategies do they emphasize? What do they say about their asset allocation strategy? What are the firms’ emphases- for example value investing, international diversification principal preservation, retirement and estate planning? Session Summary The asset allocation process does more than determine which assets the investor should invest in, it directly affects the portfolio return. The selection of specific investment assets reflects the investor's goals and time horizon as determined through the previous stages of the portfolio management process. Unit 2 Summary Unit 2 highlighted the relationship between the investor and the portfolio manager. In this unit we established the importance of setting investment goals, while considering Investment constraints via the construction of a policy statement and investment plan. We also reviewed the importance of the asset allocation decision. References Faure, P. D. (2013). Four phases of the life-cycle. In Investments: An Introduction (pp. 7-33). Quoin Institue Ltd. http://bookboon.com/en/investments-an-introduction-ebook