Assessing Transition of Security
Operations in Afghanistan
Formal Progress Report
1 April 2010
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UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY
Agenda
• Project Goal and Problem Statement
• Methodology
• Current Status
• System Requirements
• System Design Update
• Values and Metrics Update
• Earned Value Management
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UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY
Project Goal
• The goal of this project is to enable the user to
answer the question, “How much movement has
the coalition made, forward or backward,
towards the ‘perfect’ situation of the Afghan
Government being capable of securing itself?”
• Using universally available software within the US
Army we’ll produce a system that inputs data,
analyzes it, and produces easily understood
output that depicts movement for the goal and
five major lines of operation defined by the
sponsor.
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UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY
Problem Statement
•
•
The goal of the research is to develop a value model that assesses the
transition of security lead from the International Security Assistance Force
(ISAF) and US Forces Afghanistan (USFOR-A) to the Afghani government
and Afghanistan National Security Forces (ANSF)
Deputy Director, Force Integration and Training (CJ7) / CSTC-A defined five
lines of operation (LOOs) that support the goal of transferring security
operations
–
–
–
–
–
•
•
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Accelerate ANSF growth
Achieve security for the Afghan population
Marginalize malign actors
Achieve legitimate, responsive, and accountable governance
Facilitate community development
Develop metrics and an accompanying decision support tool to measure
progress against the five LOOs
Stakeholders
–
–
–
–
Force Integration and Training cell of NTM-A/CSTC-A (sponsor)
NTM-A/CSTC-A
Coalition military leadership
U.S. government leadership
UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY
Methodology
Project group organized into two subgroups
• Values and Metrics
– Research values and metrics
• “Requirements” to win a counter-insurgency conflict
• Assessments of ANSF, security, Afghani government, and community
– Develop value model
– Develop input form for values weights and utility
• System Design
– Develop user interface, input form, storage, usable output
– Integrate values, metrics, and value model from other team
into the system
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Concept of Operation
• Surveys from five military regions and CJ7 team
• CJ7 processes surveys and requests status report
CJ7 Processes
Surveys
Requests Status
Report
Military Regions
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UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY
System Requirements
• Computer capable of running Microsoft®
Office 2007 with all necessary accessories
• Microsoft ® Office 2007 including Excel and
Access
• Email system capable of sending/receiving
five emails of 20KB or less
• 2GB of storage space for database at
maximum capacity
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UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY
System Design Update
• Recent Progress
– Tested system functionality
– Obtained value model metrics and weights
– Began building the database structure
• Near Term Goals
– Complete database production with basic queries
– Link database outputs to value model
spreadsheets
– Produce a system users/maintainers guide
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UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY
Technical Approach – System Design
• System Input: the quantitative portion of the value model in a
standardized survey format, completed by military units
• System Processing and Storage: completed survey templates are
configuration controlled and ingested into data storage. User
querying capabilities allow the retrieval of data (by unit and/or
AOR and/or date range) to research trends
• Analysis Output: Condensed and easily understood presentation
for decision makers
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UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY
Operational Scenario
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Values and Metrics Update
• Recent Progress
– Completed value/metric hierarchy
– Completed weight elicitation
– Developed value weight and utility input forms
• Near Term Goals
– Integrate weight and utility forms with database
– Assist with final development and integration of
system
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UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY
Technical Approach – Value Model
• Qualitative Value Model: the identification of an objective
hierarchy relating fundamental and means objectives
• Quantitative Value Model: the articulation of the decision
maker’s preferences towards the attributes, and the means of
measuring each attribute
V(x) = ∑wivi(xi) where wi = weight of attribute i
vi = value of attribute i at score xi
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UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY
Accelerate Growth of ANSF
(1 of 5)
Transition
Assessment
Force Size
Availability of
Equipment
Accelerate
Growth of ANSF
Security for
Afghan People
Marginalize
Malign Actors
Training and
Leadership
Confidence
Ministry and HQ
Capability
Maximum Force
Size
Weapons
Unit Rating
Present for Duty
Force
Management
ANSF Growth
Rate
Communication
Equipment
ETT Availability
Reenlistment
Rate
Acquisition
Operations
# ANSF Soldiers
Available
Vehicles
Training Plan
and Goals
Unit Facilities
Force
Sustainment
Force
Development
Resource
Management
UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY
Accountable
Governance
Community
Development
Security for Afghan People
(2 of 5)
Transition
Assessment
Accelerate
Growth of ANSF
Security for
Afghan People
Marginalize
Malign Actors
Accountable
Governance
Sufficient Forces
Available
Afghan-onAfghan Violence
Price of Select
Foods
Voluntary
Reporting
Capital Flight
UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY
Community
Development
Marginalize Malign Actors
(3 of 5)
Transition
Assessment
Accelerate
Growth of ANSF
Security for
Afghan People
Marginalize
Malign Actors
Accountable
Governance
# Shadow
Governments
Detainee Guilt
Ratio
Religious
Leaders’ Attitude
Access to
Internet
UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY
Community
Development
Accountable Governance
(4 of 5)
Transition
Assessment
Accelerate
Growth of ANSF
Security for
Afghan People
Marginalize
Malign Actors
Accountable
Governance
Polling Data
# CIVCAS by
ANSF
# New Court
Cases
Budget
Execution
Formation of
Anti-Insurgent
Lashkar
UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY
Community
Development
Community Development
(5 of 5)
Transition
Assessment
Accelerate
Growth of ANSF
Security for
Afghan People
Marginalize
Malign Actors
Accountable
Governance
Community
Development
Polling Data
Availability of
Doctors
# Projects
Started
$ Value of
Projects for
Month
Electricity
Available
UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY
Weight Form
(1 of 2)
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UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY
Weight Form
(2 of 2)
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UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY
Utility Form
(1 of 2)
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UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY
Utility Form
(2 of 2)
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UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY
Output Form
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UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY
Earned Value Management
BCWS
ACWP
BCWP
$45,000.00
Cost
$40,000.00
$35,000.00
$30,000.00
$25,000.00
$20,000.00
$15,000.00
$10,000.00
$5,000.00
$0.00
Weeks
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UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY
Cost Index
1.40
1.20
Ratio
1.00
0.80
CPI
SPI
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
Weeks
24
UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY
Questions?
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UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY