Assessing Transition of Security
Operations in Afghanistan
Project Proposal
11 February 2010
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Agenda
• Background
• Problem Description
• Preliminary Requirements
• Technical Approach
• Expected Results
• Project Plan and Deliverables
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Background
• September 11 terrorist attacks
• 7 Oct 01: Coalition forces begin campaign in Afghanistan
• Goal of Current Coalition
– Rebuild Afghanistan (self-gov’t, self-defense, care for citizens)
• Goal of International Security Assistance Force (ISAF)
– Transfer lead for security operations to Afghan government
• Goal of Combined Security Transition Command-Afghanistan
(CSTC-A)
– Field effective Afghanistan National Security Forces (ANSF)
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Problem Description
• Deputy Director, Force Integration and Training (CJ7) / CSTC-A
defined five lines of operation (LOOs) that support the goal of
transferring security operations
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Accelerate ANSF growth
Achieve security for the Afghan population
Marginalize malign actors
Achieve legitimate, responsive, and accountable governance
Facilitate community development
• Develop metrics and an accompanying decision support tool to
measure progress against the five LOOs
• Stakeholders
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Force Integration and Training cell of NTM-A/CSTC-A (sponsor)
NTM-A/CSTC-A
Coalition military leadership
U.S. government leadership
UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY
Preliminary Requirements
• Majority of system must be compatible with
software already owned and operated by the U.S.
military
• Research focused on Afghanistan including but not
limited to ANSF, civilian population, economy, and
political organization
• Project group organization into two subgroups
– Values and Metrics: development of value model
– System Design: development of decision analysis
tool
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Technical Approach – Value Model
• Qualitative Value Model: the identification of an objective
hierarchy relating fundamental and means objectives
• Quantitative Value Model: the articulation of the decision maker’s
preferences towards the attributes, and the means of measuring
each attribute
V(x) = ∑wivi(xi) where wi = weight of attribute i
vi = value of attribute i at score xi
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Technical Approach – System Design
• System Input: the quantitative portion of the value model in a
standardized survey format, completed by military units
• System Processing and Storage: completed survey templates are
configuration controlled and ingested into data storage. User
querying capabilities allow the retrieval of data (by unit and/or
AOR and/or date range) to research trends
• Analysis Output: Condensed
and easily understood
presentation for decision
makers
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Expected Results
• The value model (both quantitative and qualitative portions)
• Survey template implementation of the quantitative portion of
the value model
• Decision analysis environment consisting of:
– Input function for survey template with completed unit observations
– Data storage and analysis portion
– Analysis presentation portion
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Project Plan and Deliverables
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11 Feb: Project Proposal
31 Mar: Initial System
18 Feb: Status Report, Model Requirements
1 Apr: Formal IPR
25 Feb: Value and Metric Structure
5 Apr: Finalized Model
4 Mar: Progress Report
29 Apr: Written Report
18 Mar: Status Report
7 May: Final Presentation/Website
UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY
Questions?
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