BAM Online Meeting
March 31, 2007
Team Members Present:
Richard Bornhorst
Kathryn Poole
Deepak Janardhanan
Robert Grillo
Shubh Krishna
Meeting length: 90 minutes

Discussion of model issues
o Matlab modeling
 BAM will use Matlab to determine an appropriate method to solve
ODEs (current Excel model uses Euler)
o Input parameters
 Alpha needs to relate somehow to the people quarantined during
the last time period
 2 options
o Work it into the equation explicitly
o Calculate the % for alpha separately from other
values
 Need to determine what input parameters will be stochastic and
which can remain deterministic
 Beta needs to be fixed (varied during sensitivity analysis) or have a
decay function
 Need to determine what beta levels or decay rates would
appropriately represent the various control measures
 Need to avoid normal distributions when using stochastic inputs
 May want to consider ‘beta distributions’
 Need to determine an appropriate time-step (results from Matlab
may help with this issue)

Discussion of analysis plan
o The controllable parameters are alpha, gamma, beta, and phi and will be
addressed in the parametric studies
o The uncontrollable parameters will be addressed in the sensitivity analysis
o Ro will be used to assess the overall impact of control strategies and make
BAM comparable to models from previous studies

Preparations for progress presentation
o Project management
o Resources
o Input parameters
o Model diagram
o Model status/changes
o Analysis plan
o Action items

Agree to online meeting on Tuesday, April 3 at 8:30 p.m.

Action items and assignment of responsibilities:
o All members will work on assigned progress presentation slides
o Rick – Progress presentation draft
o Kathryn – C++ coding
o Shubh – Model updates
o Deepak – Matlab analysis
o Rob – Beta value research