Inflation Report
November 2007
Demand
Chart 2.1 Nominal demand(a)
(a) At current market prices.
Chart 2.2 Half-yearly growth in real post-tax labour income
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
Wages and salaries plus mixed income.
Taxes include income and Council Tax.
Consumption expenditure deflator (including non-profit institutions serving households).
General government benefits minus employees’ National Insurance contributions.
Chart 2.3 Nominal consumer spending
(a) At current market prices. Includes non-profit institutions serving households.
(b) Weighted average of Agents’ scores for retail sales values and consumer services turnover, using the respective shares of goods and services in nominal consumption.
Chart 2.4 Mortgage arrears and repossessions
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders.
Chart 2.5 Annual growth in gross fixed capital formation(a)
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
Chained-volume measures. The figures in parentheses show shares in the level of total gross fixed capital formation in 2006.
Adjusted for the transfer of nuclear reactors from the public corporation sector to central government in 2005 Q2.
Includes new dwellings and improvements to dwellings by both the private sector and public corporations.
Includes costs associated with the transfer of ownership of buildings, dwellings and non-produced assets.
Chart 2.6 Investment intentions(a)
Sources: Bank of England, BCC, CBI, CBI/Grant Thornton, CBI/PwC and ONS.
(a) Measures weight together sectoral surveys using shares in real business investment. Disaggregated data on financial services investment are provided by the ONS but
are not subject to the scrutiny applied to officially released National Statistics.
(b) Net percentage balances of companies who plan to increase investment in plant and machinery over the next twelve months. Four-quarter moving average.
(c) Companies’ intended changes in investment over the next twelve months.
(d) Net percentage balances of companies who say they have revised up their planned investment in plant and machinery over the past three months. Non seasonally
adjusted. Four-quarter moving average.
Chart 2.7 Revisions to Consensus forecasts for world growth
between July and October 2007(a)
Sources: Consensus Economics, IMF, ONS and Bank calculations. For further information on the forecasts, see www.consensuseconomics.co.uk.
(a) Groupings are based on those published by Consensus Economics.
(b) Weighted using purchasing power parity exchange rates in 2004.
(c) Weighted by nominal shares of UK exports in 2006.
Chart 2.8 US housing market activity(a)
Source: US Census Bureau.
(a) New one-family houses.
Chart 2.9 Euro-area bank credit standards(a)
Source: ECB.
(a) Survey of around 90 banks in the euro area. Survey results are weighted according to national shares in the total amount outstanding of euro-area lending to euro-area
residents. The most recent survey took place during September, with a data cut-off of 27 September. Data are non seasonally adjusted.
Chart 2.10 US imports and GDP in non-Japan Asia
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IMF, Thomson Datastream and Bank calculations.
(a) Weighted volume measure for China, Hong Kong, India, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand using purchasing power parity exchange
rates in 2004.
(b) Chained-volume measure.
Tables
Table 2.A Expenditure components of demand(a)
Percentage changes on a quarter earlier
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
2004
Averages
2005
2006
Q1
Q2
Household consumption(b)
Government consumption
Investment
of which, business investment
Final domestic demand
Change in inventories(c)(d)
Alignment adjustment(d)
Domestic demand
‘Economic’ exports(e)
‘Economic’ imports(e)
Net trade(d)
0.8
0.5
0.8
0.1
0.8
0.0
0.0
0.8
1.4
1.7
-0.1
0.3
0.6
1.0
0.7
0.5
-0.1
-0.1
0.2
2.0
1.2
0.2
0.7
0.5
2.5
3.1
1.0
-0.1
0.0
0.9
0.6
1.0
-0.1
0.7
0.5
1.1
-0.5
0.7
0.6
-0.2
1.0
0.5
1.4
-0.3
0.8
0.3
-0.9
0.4
0.5
-0.4
0.6
0.6
0.3
-0.3
0.2
Real GDP at market prices
0.6
0.5
0.8
0.8
0.8
Chained-volume measures.
Includes non-profit institutions serving households.
Excludes the alignment adjustment.
Percentage point contributions to quarterly growth of real GDP.
Goods and services, excluding the estimated impact of missing trader intra-community (MTIC) fraud.
2007
Table 2.B Forward-looking consumer confidence indicators
Net balances
Averages(a)
1993–2005
General economic outlook
GfK NOP(b)
MORI(b)
Nationwide(c)
Personal situation
GfK NOP(b)
MORI(b)(d)
Nationwide(c)(e)
2006
H1
H2
H1
2007
Q3
-7
-14
-12
-17
-28
-13
-19
-32
-15
-17
-28
-17
-16
-27
-14
-17
-35
-17
6
15
19
11
5
17
11
3
15
11
3
18
12
5
17
13
4
18
Sources: MORI, Nationwide and research carried out by GfK NOP on behalf of the European Commission.
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
Due to data availability, the average for Nationwide is between May 2004 and December 2005.
Over the next twelve months.
Over the next six months. Non seasonally adjusted.
Personal economic optimism.
Household income expectations.
October
Table 2.C Goods exports
Averages
1998–2005
2006
Annual growth in ‘economic’
goods exports(a)
Agents’ scores(b)
BCC net balance(c)
CBI net balance(c)
2.8
0.3
3
-15
8.7
2.6
24
4
Q1
-4.1
2.7
21
0
2007
Q2
Q3
-8.2
2.9
30
-3
n.a.
2.9
29
7
Sources: Bank of England, BCC, CBI and ONS.
(a) Excludes the estimated impact of missing trader intra-community (MTIC) fraud.
(b) Manufacturing companies’ reported annual growth in production for sales to overseas customers over the past three months. End-quarter observations.
(c) Net percentage balance of manufacturing companies saying that export sales/deliveries increased on the quarter.
The distribution of debt
and repayment difficulties
Chart A Distribution of loan to value ratios
Sources: British Household Panel Survey, NMG Research and Bank calculations.
Chart B Distribution of mortgage income gearing
Sources: British Household Panel Survey, NMG Research and Bank calculations.
Table 1 Distribution of unsecured debt(a)
Percentages of those with unsecured debts
Up to
999
Renters
2005
2006
2007
Mortgagors
2005
2006
2007
Sources: NMG Research and Bank calculations.
(a) Rows may not sum to 100 due to rounding.
39
38
45
28
25
22
Amount owed (£)
1,000–
5,000–
10,000–
4,999
9,999
19,999
20,000–
100,000
28
37
32
20
17
11
9
5
9
5
3
4
35
36
33
18
21
23
10
9
14
8
8
8
Tighter credit conditions
and business investment
Chart A Shares of total corporate investment(a)
Sources: Bankscope published by Bureau van Dijk and Bank calculations.
(a) Based on 2005 company accounts data for non-financial companies with at least ten employees. Company size consistent with the 2006 Companies Act: large
companies have turnover greater than £22.8 million while medium companies have turnover above £5.6 million.
Chart B Debt to asset ratios(a)
Sources: Bankscope published by Bureau van Dijk and Bank calculations.
(a) See footnote to Chart A.