Federal Crop Insurance Programs: Historic Performance, Contemporary Issues prepared by: Gary Schnitkey, Bruce Sherrick, Bob Hauser, Paul Ellinger Agricultural and Consumer Economics University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign August 2006 iFAR integrated Financial Analytics and Research, LLP ● ● Outline: Executive summary: Background: iFarm and farmdoc crop insurance evaluation tools (online) Subsidy structure, pool structure, SRA, etc. Operating elements of Federal crop insurance programs Loss ratio data and distribution: Corn and Soybeans have experienced lower per acre payments than other major crops Loss ratios below targets Significant geographic concentrations Non-uniform effective subsidization by crop, region. Premiums and payments by crop and region Summary and implications: What does it mean and where to from here Background….. Loss Ratios Loss Ratio = Insurance Payment / Total Premium A loss ratio of 1.00 indicates that payments to farmers equal total premiums. A loss ratio less than 1.0 indicates that payments are less than total premiums. A loss ratio of greater than 1.0 indicates that payments are greater than total premiums. Crop insurance companies share gain/losses with Federal government depending on loss ratio and fund selection by company for assignment of risk. Overall, loss ratios have averaged .92 since 1995. Premium and Risk Subsidies Premiums (costs of insurance products) are federally subsidized. Subsidy rates are set in the Agricultural Risk Protection Act of 2000. Subsidy rates vary by coverage level and type of insurance. Risk Subsidies as a Percent of Total Premium Coverage Level Farm Products Group Products CAT 100% 50% 67% 55% 64% 60% 64% 65% 59% 70% 59% 64% 75% 55% 64% 80% 48% 59% 85% 48% 59% 90% 55% Farm products include APH, CRC, IP and RA. Group are GRP and GRIP Farmers’ positions Farmers should make money on crop insurance given a 1.0 total loss ratio. Example, Total premium is $1 and insurance payment is $1, giving a loss ratio of 1 ($1 payment / $1 premium). If the risk subsidy is 59%. The farmer pays $.41. In this case, farmer makes $.59. Farmers will not make money when loss ratios are around .6 or less. The .6 benchmark depends on the risk subsidy. Mythbusters Often suggested that the Midwest is subsidizing other areas. A better explanation may be that crop insurance companies make higher profits in the Midwest than in other areas. Corn, soybeans are key to crop insurance companies’ profitability Loss Ratios and Related Data Source data unless otherwise indicated: www.rma.usda.gov/data/sob.html Total Premiums, U.S., 1995 to 2005 4.5 4.0 $ (billion) 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 95 96 97 98 99 00 Year 01 02 03 04 05 Corn and Soybeans Premiums as Percent of Total Premiums, 1995 to 2005 40 35 Corn Percent 30 25 20 15 Soybeans 10 5 0 95 96 97 98 99 00 Year 01 02 03 04 05 Total Premiums, U.S., 2005 Crop Corn Soybeans Wheat Cotton Fruits and vegetables Other grains Other Potatoes Nursery Grain sorghum Peanuts Sugar Beets Tobacco AGR Total Total Premiums 1,266,003,668 873,110,128 576,970,245 329,547,491 325,154,705 142,446,688 106,124,408 69,957,018 68,839,802 67,280,532 41,323,094 39,870,013 30,586,571 11,420,788 3,948,635,151 Percent 32% 22% 15% 8% 8% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 100% Per Year Insurance Payments less Farmer-Paid Premiums, Crops, 1995 – 2005 Crop $ per Acre Soybeans Corn Other Wheat Other grains Grain sorghum Sugar Beets Cotton Fruits and vegetables Peanuts Potatoes Tobacco 2.76 3.03 3.70 5.35 6.38 8.99 14.18 17.92 22.81 25.71 30.36 204.54 Note: “Payments less farmer-paid premiums” expressed in dollars and may not reflect similar shares of the value of the crop produced. * Excludes Nursery and AGR policies Source data unless otherwise indicated: www.rma.usda.gov/data/sob.html Premiums, Payments, Loss Ratios by Crop, 1995 to 2005 by Crop Crop Corn Soybeans Fruits and vegetables Potatoes Nursery Other Sugar Beets Wheat Cotton Other grains AGR Peanuts Grain sorghum Tobacco Total Premium $8,663,068,283 5,346,885,430 2,363,727,988 579,603,620 397,721,162 623,116,677 327,746,499 4,332,281,302 3,615,786,256 1,169,217,061 51,628,184 440,911,913 709,136,368 397,367,562 Payments Minus Farmer-Paid Loss Premium Ratio $1,868,752,682 1,574,312,770 1,260,696,951 298,487,944 296,313,435 422,581,615 183,133,449 2,862,620,024 2,606,177,757 847,677,316 42,224,905 373,437,276 678,471,495 660,806,811 0.68 0.74 0.85 0.90 0.90 1.02 1.02 1.10 1.11 1.14 1.25 1.32 1.38 2.14 Premiums, Payments, Loss Ratios for Corn, 1995 to 2005 by State State Crop Iowa Illinois Nebraska Minnesota South Dakota Indiana Kansas Missouri Wisconsin Ohio Texas North Dakota Other States Total Premium $1,448,224,763 1,112,582,499 1,041,003,003 956,678,670 647,838,398 571,216,269 376,994,307 355,437,717 322,198,732 280,030,309 258,957,963 205,455,384 1,086,450,269 Payments Minus Farmer-Paid Premium -$237,339,250 39,438,013 251,353,058 -156,600,667 310,133,430 98,977,828 234,847,588 123,974,556 115,862,611 160,756,829 224,916,098 140,497,352 561,935,236 Loss Ratio 0.35 0.54 0.72 0.30 0.93 0.69 1.08 0.75 0.78 1.05 1.27 1.09 0.77 Loss Ratios, Corn, 1995 to 2005 Per Acre Payments Minus Farmer Paid Premiums, Corn,1995 to 2005 Premiums, Payments, Loss Ratios for Soybeans, 1995 to 2005 by State State Crop Iowa Minnesota Illinois South Dakota Nebraska Missouri Indiana North Dakota Ohio Kansas Arkansas Other States Total Premium Payments Minus Farmer-Paid Premium Loss Ratio $734,129,900 692,727,222 544,945,252 425,908,028 398,055,628 360,987,432 342,122,391 252,966,927 251,105,969 238,957,882 197,656,695 907,322,104 $90,818,490 173,977,222 13,107,933 173,291,222 64,627,926 88,904,932 28,819,289 152,304,945 80,294,133 137,042,756 66,884,917 504,239,005 0.63 0.75 0.48 0.59 0.65 0.62 0.58 1.04 0.79 1.02 0.57 1.05 Loss Ratios, Soybeans, 1995 to 2005 Per Acre Payments Minus Farmer Paid Premiums, Soybeans,1995 to 2005 Premiums, Payments, and Loss Ratios, 1995 to 2005, Lowest Loss Ratio States State Iowa Hawaii Illinois Rhode Island Minnesota Washington New Jersey Idaho Arkansas Indiana California Missouri Nebraska Total Premium Payments Minus Farmer-Paid Premium Loss Ratio 2,325,009,452 11,419,346 1,753,472,247 547,753 2,234,286,431 327,675,063 24,596,004 274,238,219 491,397,111 972,379,336 1,417,778,958 819,199,650 1,797,487,026 -189,660,612 1,587,513 72,908,130 195,039 330,891,172 85,639,176 12,066,670 58,740,520 200,522,251 141,513,060 509,339,542 244,750,257 428,877,848 0.44 0.45 0.52 0.59 0.62 0.63 0.63 0.64 0.64 0.65 0.66 0.67 0.73 Loss Ratios, All Policies, 1995 to 2005 Per Acre Payments Minus Farmer Paid Premiums, All Crops, 1995 to 2005 Some Preliminary Summaries and Implications Summary and Implications Corn and soybeans have lower loss ratios than other crops - lower effective subsidization rates as a result. There is upward bias in premium rates for corn relative to those that are consistent with intended loss ratios. Geography also plays a role. The bias has not mitigated through time. Where to from here? Seek to determine why corn has a low loss ratio. Likely due to actuarial methods, not politics. Changing insurance product shares (i.e., movement toward group policies) also important to consider Where to from here? Possible factors for analysis: Good weather in corn producing areas Bias in methods for crops with increasing trend-yields or “Trend Acceleration” (would require re-rating at some level) Bias in methods for crops with lower variability Bias in methods due to low participation in early years, changing products Seek to determine why corn has a low loss ratio…. Impacts of the Rules for Calculating APH on the Performance of APH Insurance Current Rules and Extreme values: Small sample statistics sensitive to extremes (could be several consecutive years of poor yields, or one or more years of good yields) RMA noted that it is “the most frequent and consistent concern heard from producers” There is an incentive to selectively report yields, alter participation patterns Sample moments are dependent in small samples Current Rules and Trend issues: RMA rules ignore trend Example: Expected Yield 120 Skees and Reed argue APH 10 104 that “either RMA must APH 4 113 attempt to adjust APH yields for trends or they must reduce their rates to reflect actual level of coverage provided when trends are not adjusted.” Trend = 3 Average bias = trend*(n+1)/2 Cov. Level Guarantee 0.75 90 0.75 78 0.75 85 Current Rules: Sample Variability (APH 4,7, and 10-year samples from same sim-farm) APH Sampling Dist by length 80 70 60 St.Dev 50 4 year 40 7 year 10 year 30 20 10 0 75 95 115 135 Mean 155 175 195 Yield distributions for various APH base periods and “true” 0.02 TRUE True - 0.85 0.018 4 Y APH Idem4Y-APH -0.85 7 Y APH 0.016 0.014 Idem 7Y APH -0.85 10 Y APH Idem 10Y APH -0.85 Prob 0.012 0.01 0.008 0.006 0.004 0.002 0 1 51 101 151 201 Yield Probabilities Coverage Level 0.55 0.6 0.65 0.7 0.75 0.8 0.85 10 Y APH * Coverage Level 75 82 89 96 102 109 116 10 Y 1% 2% 3% 6% 9% 13% 19% 7Y 1% 2% 3% 5% 7% 11% 17% 4Y 1% 1% 2% 4% 6% 10% 14% TRUE 0% 1% 1% 3% 4% 7% 10% Yield distributions for various APH base periods and “true” 0.02 TRUE True - 0.85 0.018 4 Y APH Idem4Y-APH -0.85 7 Y APH 0.016 0.014 Idem 7Y APH -0.85 10 Y APH Idem 10Y APH -0.85 Prob 0.012 0.01 0.008 0.006 0.004 0.002 0 1 51 101 151 201 Yield Bushels Coverage Level 0.55 0.6 0.65 0.7 0.75 0.8 0.85 Probability under True 0% 1% 1% 3% 4% 7% 10% 10 Y 66 72 79 85 92 98 105 7Y 68 74 81 88 94 101 108 4Y 70 77 83 90 97 103 110 TRUE 75 82 89 96 102 109 116 Jo Daviess 3.10 StephensonWinnebagoBoone McHenry -0.30 9.40 5.90 12.80 Carroll -11.20 Illinois Ogle -0.20 Whiteside -0.80 De Kalb 7.10 Lee -1.60 Mercer -5.20 HendersonWarren -0.60 -7.30 Hancock McDonough -13.00 -10.50 Bureau -5.90 Putnam Stark -11.40 Marshall -9.40 -9.10 Du Page Cook La Salle 2.90 Grundy -2.70 Will 1.70 Kankakee -2.90 Livingston -3.60 Peoria Woodford Iroquois Ford -11.10 -12.70 -7.80 -6.80 Tazewell McLean -7.70 -5.50 Fulton -11.20 Mason -8.40 Schuyler -16.30 Cass Brown -5.60 -7.10 Adams -15.00 Menard -5.30 De Witt -5.00 Piatt Logan -6.10 Champaign Vermilion 3.60 2.00 0.10 Macon -5.40 Douglas Edgar 2.00 Moultrie 1.60 Coles 6.60 -2.00 Shelby 6.90 Greene Clark Macoupin Montgomery Cumberland 0.90 -4.50 -5.50 -2.10 4.30 CalhounJersey Effingham 2.90 -3.20 Jasper Crawford Fayette 3.40 6.40 7.30 -0.40 Bond Madison 0.80 Clay -4.10 Richland Lawrence 1.10 Marion 6.40 3.80 Clinton 1.40 3.20 Saint Clair Wayne Edwards Wabash Washington 1.60 1.60 8.00 4.40 Monroe Jefferson 4.70 7.60 11.10 Perry Hamilton White Randolph 19.70 Franklin 5.80 -1.00 13.80 12.90 Pike -12.30 iFarm Trend minus RMA -17.00 to -11.00, 10 10.4% -11.00 to -5.00, 19 19.8% -5.00 to 1.00, 23 24.0% 1.00 to 7.00, 29 30.2% 7.00 to 13.00, 11 11.5% 13.00 to 19.00, 1 1.0% 19.00 to 25.00, 3 3.1% 25.00 to 31.00, 0 0.0% No data Knox -11.80 Kane 8.80 Kendall 3.60 Rock Island -7.80 Henry -5.20 Lake 20.60 ScottMorgan -3.60 -2.10 Sangamon -2.70 Christian -1.60 Jackson 7.80 Union 5.30 Williamson Saline Gallatin 6.70 5.20 19.50 Hardin Johnson Pope Pulaski Massac Alexander 11.30 2.70