Thinking and Communicating
with Diagrams
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
1
Simple Causal-Loop Diagrams
Citiz en
involvement in
planning
+
Perception that
citizens are pow erless
and disenfranchised
-
Willingness of citizens
to become involved
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
2
CLD without Polarities
Visitors per
year
Crowding
Damage
per visitor
Natural
area
Contact area
Damage
density
Incidence
of
damage
R
Environmental
damage
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
Regeneration
time
Disappearance
of damage
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
3
CLD without Polarities
Pressure for more and
wider high speed roads
Highway
construction
Tolerable
commuting time
Lane-miles of high
speed roads
Average
commuting time
Average
commuting speed
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
Average
commuting
distance
Population in
outlying areas
Net migration to
Attractiveness
of outlying areas
outlying areas
Number of
commuters
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
4
Adding Loop Names Helps Greatly
Pressure for more
and wider high
speed roads
Highw ay
construction
Tolerable
commuting time
(B2) Commuting
distance
Average
commuting time
(B1) Highw ay
expansion
Lane-miles of high
speed roads
Average commuting
distance
Average
commuting speed
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
Attractiveness of
outlying areas
(B3) Commuting
volume
Population in
outlying areas
Net migration
to outlying
areas
Number of
commuters
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
5
Gross prod uctivity
Prog ress rate
Fra cti on s atis factory
Wo rkfo rce
Cumu lati ve real
pro gress
CLD with
Stocks
Undi sco ve red
rework
Dete cti on o f
un discovered
rework
Net hirin g
Cumu lati ve effort
Cumu lati ve
pre cei ve d
pro gress
<wcwf>
Wo rkfo rce soug ht
Wi llin gnes s to
chang e
workforce
Perceived p
rod uctivity
Fra cti on
pe rcei ve d
compl ete
In dicated worforce
Effort
pe rcei ve d
rem aini ng
Ti me to de tect rework
Ta sks perceived
rem aini ng
<tdrw>
In itia l pro ject de fini tion
<Workforce sou ght>
Ti me p erce ived re quire d
Ti me re main ing
In dicated co mple tion date
Schedu led
compl etio n da te
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
Net addi tion s to
sched ule
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
6
<Anti-tobacco
litigation>
Perceived importance of
other health programs
-
+
+
+Tobacco taxes
Govt awareness
of tobacco
health risk
+
+
Pro-tobacco
contituencies
++
+
+
+
Trend in tobacco
company revenues
+
Tobacco
production
capacity
+
Smoking as a
social norm
+
+
Funding for tobacco
control programs
+
+
Public
awareness of
tobacco health
risk
-
+
+
+
People starting
smoking
+
People quitting
+
smoking
+
Tobacco control
programs
+
+
+
Health insurers
coverage of tobacco
quitting costs
-
+
Tobacco marketing
activities -
+Gov. income
+
Funding for tobacco
health research
+
+
Smokers
+
Tax revenues
from smokers
+ Govt funding of
tobacco control
Researchers
awarness of
tobacco health
risk
+
+
Tobacco revenues
+
Anti-tobacco
constituencies
+
+
Health care costs
Anti-tobacco
litigation
Anti-tobacco
legislation
<Perceived importance
of other health
programs>
- Govt willingness to +
act against tobacco
Tobacco products
+
availability
xxx
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
Pressure on tobacco
companies to reduce
marketing activities
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
7
Standard Vensim Diagram
(History: “Hybrid” diagram in Richardson and Pugh)
Total pers onnel
Fraction experienced
Target growth
rate
Experienced
personnel
New pers onnel
Hiring rate
Ass imilation
rate
Experienced
leave rate
Time to
become
experienced
Frac exp
leaving p year
Mentoring time available
Mentoring time needed
Mentoring time
needed per New
Adequacy of
mentoring
Mentoring time
available per Exp
Perceived time
to become Exp
Press ure for mentoring
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
8
Standard Diagram
with Loop Names, Friendly Font, and Color
Delivery
delay
Producing
Inventory
Phantom
orde ring loops
Shipping
Ordering +
Production
capacity
Building
capacity
Capacity in
construction
Delivery delay
perceived by the
market
Inventory
coverage
Capacity
acquisition delay
Capacity
ordering
Price and capacity
adjustment loop
Demand
Phantom
ordering
-
Fraction of orders
shipped
Ava ilability loop
Price
Planned growth in
capacity
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
9
Standard Diagram Showing the Limit of
Complexity/Readability in One Diagram
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
10
Sector Diagram:
Note Labels on Links
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
11
Policy
Structure
Diagrams
(Morecroft)
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
12
Policy Structure
Diagrams
(What’s the famous
model?
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
13
Lessons
•
•
•
•
•
Readability (audience!)
Naming loops
Omitting unnecessary detail
Unfolding complex pictures
Communication!
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
14
A Conceptual Map of the Tobacco
Control System
Unfolding a Tobacco Map for Health
Professionals
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
15
<Anti-tobacco
litigation>
Perceived importance of
other health programs
-
+
+
+Tobacco taxes
Govt awareness
of tobacco
health risk
+
+
Pro-tobacco
contituencies
++
+
+
+
Trend in tobacco
company revenues
+
Tobacco
production
capacity
+
Smoking as a
social norm
+
+
Funding for tobacco
control programs
+
+
Public
awareness of
tobacco health
risk
-
+
+
+
People starting
smoking
+
People quitting
+
smoking
+
Tobacco control
programs
+
+
+
Health insurers
coverage of tobacco
quitting costs
-
+
Tobacco marketing
activities -
+Gov. income
+
Funding for tobacco
health research
+
+
Smokers
+
Tax revenues
from smokers
+ Govt funding of
tobacco control
Researchers
awarness of
tobacco health
risk
+
+
Tobacco revenues
+
Anti-tobacco
constituencies
+
+
Health care costs
Anti-tobacco
litigation
Anti-tobacco
legislation
<Perceived importance
of other health
programs>
- Govt willingness to +
act against tobacco
Tobacco products
+
availability
xxx
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
Pressure on tobacco
companies to reduce
marketing activities
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
16
<xxx>
Smokers
Tobacco
revenues
+
+
Smoking as a
social norm
+
+
People starting
+ smoking
+
+
+
Tobacco
production
capacity
Tobacco marketing
activities
Tobacco products
+
availability
<xxx>
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
17
<xxx>
Researchers
awarness of
tobacco health
risk
+
+
Smokers
Tobacco
revenues
+
+
+
Trend in tobacco
company revenues
+
+
Tobacco
production
capacity
Smoking as a
social norm
+
Funding for
tobacco health
research
-
+
+
People starting
+ smoking People quitting
smoking
+
-
+
Public
awareness of
tobacco health
risk
-
Tobacco marketing
activities
Tobacco products
+
availability
<xxx>
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
18
<xxx>
Anti-tobacco
constituencies
+
+
+
Researchers
awarness of
tobacco health
risk
+
+
Smokers
Tobacco
revenues
+
+
+
Trend in tobacco
company revenues
+
+
Tobacco
production
capacity
Smoking as a
social norm
+
+
Funding for tobacco
control programs
+
+
-
+
+
People starting
+ smoking People quitting
smoking
+
-
Public
awareness of
tobacco health
risk
+
Tobacco control
programs
+
-
Tobacco marketing
activities -
Funding for
tobacco health
research
Tobacco products
+
availability
<xxx>
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
Pressure on tobacco
companies to reduce
marketing activities
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
19
<xxx>
Govt awareness
of tobacco
health risk
+
+
Anti-tobacco
constituencies
+
+
Researchers
awarness of
tobacco health
risk
Health care costs
+
+
+
+
Trend in tobacco
company revenues
+
+
Tobacco
production
capacity
Smoking as a
social norm
+
+
Funding for tobacco
control programs
+
+
-
+
+
People starting
+ smoking People quitting
smoking
+
-
Public
awareness of
tobacco health
risk
+
Tobacco control
programs
+
-
Tobacco marketing
activities -
Funding for
tobacco health
research
+
+
Smokers
Tobacco
revenues
+
Tobacco products
+
availability
<xxx>
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
Pressure on tobacco
companies to reduce
marketing activities
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
20
<xxx>
Govt awareness
of tobacco
health risk
+
+
Pro-tobacco
contituencies
++ +
+
Anti-tobacco
constituencies
+
+
Researchers
awarness of
tobacco health
risk
Health care costs
+
+
+
+
Trend in tobacco
company revenues
+
+
Tobacco
production
capacity
Smoking as a
social norm
+
+
Funding for tobacco
control programs
+
+
-
+
+
People starting
+ smoking People quitting
smoking
+
-
Public
awareness of
tobacco health
risk
+
Tobacco control
programs
+
-
Tobacco marketing
activities -
Funding for
tobacco health
research
+
+
Smokers
Tobacco
revenues
+
Tobacco products
+
availability
<xxx>
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
Pressure on tobacco
companies to reduce
marketing activities
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
21
<xxx>
Govt willingness to
act against tobacco
-
+
Tobacco
taxes
+
Govt awareness
of tobacco
health risk
+
+
Pro-tobacco
contituencies
++ +
+
+
Anti-tobacco
constituencies
+
+
Researchers
awarness of
tobacco health
risk
Health care costs
+
+
+
+
Trend in tobacco
company revenues
+
+
Tobacco
production
capacity
Smoking as a
social norm
+
-
+
Funding for tobacco
control programs
+
+
+
+
+
People starting
+ smoking People quitting
+
smoking
+
-
Public
awareness of
tobacco health
risk
Tobacco control
programs
+
+
+
Health insurers
coverage of tobacco
quitting costs
+
-
Tobacco marketing
activities -
Funding for
tobacco health
research
+
+
Smokers
Tobacco
revenues
+
Tobacco products
+
availability
<xxx>
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
Pressure on tobacco
companies to reduce
marketing activities
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
22
<xxx>
Govt willingness to
act against tobacco
-
++ +
+
+
+
Tobacco
taxes
+
Govt awareness
of tobacco
health risk
+
+
Pro-tobacco
contituencies
+
+
+
Trend in tobacco
company revenues
+
+
Tobacco
production
capacity
Smoking as a
social norm
+
-
Funding for
tobacco health
research
+
+
Funding for tobacco
control programs
+
+
+
+
+
People starting
+ smoking People quitting
+
smoking
+
-
Public
awareness of
tobacco health
risk
Tobacco control
programs
+
+
+
Health insurers
coverage of tobacco
quitting costs
+
-
Tobacco marketing
activities -
Gov.
income
+
+
Smokers
+
+Govt funding of
tobacco control
Researchers
awarness of
tobacco health
risk
+
+
Tax
revenues
from
smokers
Anti-tobacco
constituencies
+
+
Health care costs
Tobacco
revenues
+
Tobacco products
+
availability
<xxx>
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
Pressure on tobacco
companies to reduce
marketing activities
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
23
<xxx>
Govt willingness to
act against tobacco
-
++ +
Anti-tobacco
legislation
+
+
+
+
+
Tobacco
production
capacity
Smoking as a
social norm
+
-
Gov.
income
Funding for
tobacco health
research
+
+
Funding for tobacco
control programs
+
+
+
+
+
People starting
+ smoking People quitting
+
smoking
+
-
Public
awareness of
tobacco health
risk
Tobacco control
programs
+
+
+
Health insurers
coverage of tobacco
quitting costs
+
-
Tobacco marketing
activities -
+
+
+
Smokers
Trend in tobacco
company revenues
Tax
revenues
from
smokers
+Govt funding of
tobacco control
Researchers
awarness of
tobacco health
risk
+
+
+
Anti-tobacco
constituencies
+
+
Health care costs
Anti-tobacco
litigation
Tobacco
revenues
Tobacco
taxes
+
Govt awareness
of tobacco
health risk
+
+
Pro-tobacco
contituencies
+
+
+
<Anti-tobacco
litigation>
Tobacco products
+
availability
<xxx>
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
Pressure on tobacco
companies to reduce
marketing activities
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
24
<xxx>
Perceived importance of
other health programs
-
Govt willingness to
act against tobacco
-
++ +
Anti-tobacco
legislation
+
+
+
+
+
Tobacco
production
capacity
Smoking as a
social norm
+
-
Gov.
income
Funding for
tobacco health
research
+
+
Funding for tobacco
control programs
+
+
+
+
+
People starting
+ smoking People quitting
+
smoking
+
-
Public
awareness of
tobacco health
risk
Tobacco control
programs
+
+
+
Health insurers
coverage of tobacco
quitting costs
+
-
Tobacco marketing
activities -
+
+
+
Smokers
Trend in tobacco
company revenues
Tax
revenues
from
smokers
<Perceived importance of
other health programs>
+Govt funding of
tobacco control
Researchers
awarness of
tobacco health
risk
+
+
+
Anti-tobacco
constituencies
+
+
Health care costs
Anti-tobacco
litigation
Tobacco
revenues
Tobacco
taxes
+
Govt awareness
of tobacco
health risk
+
+
Pro-tobacco
contituencies
+
+
+
<Anti-tobacco
litigation>
Tobacco products
+
availability
<xxx>
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
Pressure on tobacco
companies to reduce
marketing activities
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
25
A Stock and its Flows
Smokers
+
People starting
smoking
People quitting
smoking
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
26
Reinforcing Loops
Smokers
+
Smoking as a
social norm
-
+
People starting
smoking
+
People quitting
smoking
-
Four views
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
27
Reinforcing Loops
Smokers
+
Tobacco revenues
+
Smoking as a
social norm
+
Four views
Tobacco
production
capacity
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
-
+
People starting
smoking
+
People quitting
smoking
+
-
Tobacco products
+
availability
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
28
Reinforcing Loops
Smokers
+
Tobacco revenues
+
Smoking as a
social norm
+
-
+
People starting
smoking
+
People quitting
smoking
+
-
+
+
Four views
Tobacco
production
capacity
Tobacco marketing
activities
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
Tobacco products
+
availability
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
29
Balancing or
Counteracting Loops
Researchers
awarness of
tobacco health
risk
+
Smokers
+
Public
awareness of
tobacco health
risk
+
Three views
People quitting
smoking
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
30
Tax revenues
from smokers
Balancing or
Counteracting Loops
+
Researchers
awarness of
tobacco health
risk
Smokers
Funding for tobacco
health research
+
+
+Gov. income
+
Public
awareness of
tobacco health
risk
+
Three views
People quitting
smoking
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
31
Tax revenues
from smokers
Balancing or
Counteracting Loops
+
+ Govt funding of
tobacco control
Researchers
awarness of
tobacco health
risk
Funding for tobacco
health research
+
+
Smokers
Funding for tobacco
control programs
+
+
Public
awareness of
tobacco health
risk
-
People quitting
smoking
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
Tobacco control
programs
+
+
+
Three views
+Gov. income
+
+
Health insurers
coverage of tobacco
quitting costs
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
32
Anti-tobacco Constituencies
Anti-tobacco
constituencies
+
+
Researchers
awarness of
tobacco health
risk
Public
awareness of
tobacco health
risk
Two views
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
33
Anti-tobacco Constituencies
Anti-tobacco
constituencies
+
+
Researchers
awarness of
tobacco health
risk
+
Funding for tobacco
health research
+
+
+
Public
awareness of
tobacco health
risk
+
Funding for tobacco
control programs
+
Tobacco control
programs
Two views
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
34
Pro-tobacco Constituencies
Pro-tobacco
contituencies
+
+
+
Smokers
+
Tobacco revenues
Smoking as a
social norm
Two views
Tobacco
production
capacity
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
35
Pro-tobacco Constituencies
Pro-tobacco
contituencies
++
+
+
Smokers
+
Tobacco revenues
+
People starting
smoking
+
People quitting
smoking
+
-
+
Smoking as a
social norm
+
Two views
-
+
+
Tobacco
production
capacity
Tobacco marketing
activities
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
+
Tobacco products
availability
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
36
Pro-tobacco Constituencies
Pro-tobacco
contituencies
++
+
+
Smokers
+
Tobacco revenues
Trend in tobacco
company revenues
Two views
+
+
Tobacco
production
capacity
+
People starting
smoking
+
People quitting
smoking
+
-
+
+
-
Smoking as a
social norm
+
Tobacco marketing
activities
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
+
Tobacco products
availability
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
37
Government Awareness of Health Risks
Govt awareness
of tobacco
health risk
+
+
Researchers
awarness of
tobacco health
risk
Health care costs
+
+
Smokers
Three views
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
Funding for tobacco
health research
+
+
Public
awareness of
tobacco health
risk
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
38
Government Awareness of Health Risks
Govt awareness
of tobacco
health risk
+
+
Researchers
awarness of
tobacco health
risk
Health care costs
+
+
Smokers
Three views
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
Funding for tobacco
health research
+
+
Public
awareness of
tobacco health
risk
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
39
Government Awareness of Health Risks
Govt willingness to
act against tobacco
+
Gov. income
+ Govt funding of
tobacco control
Govt awareness
of tobacco
health risk
+
+
Researchers
awarness of
tobacco health
risk
Health care costs
+
+
Smokers
Three views
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
Funding for tobacco
health research
+
Funding for tobacco
control programs
+
+
Public
awareness of
tobacco health
risk
+
Tobacco control
programs
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
40
Government Willingness to Act Against Tobacco
<Anti-tobacco
litigation>
Govt willingness to
act against tobacco
-
+
+
+Tobacco taxes
Two views
Pro-tobacco
contituencies
Govt awareness
of tobacco
health risk
+
Tax revenues
from smokers
+Gov. income
+ Govt funding of
tobacco control
Anti-tobacco
constituencies
+
Funding for tobacco
health research
Anti-tobacco
legislation
Anti-tobacco
litigation
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
+
Funding for tobacco
control programs
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
41
Accumulations in the Tobacco System
Pro-tobacco
contituencies
+
+
Govt awareness
of tobacco
health risk
+
Anti-tobacco
constituencies
+
+
Researchers
awarness of
tobacco health
risk
Anti-tobacco
legislation
Smokers
Public
awareness of
tobacco health
risk
Tobacco control
programs
Smoking as a
social norm
Tobacco
production
capacity
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
42
<Anti-tobacco
litigation>
Perceived importance of
other health programs
-
+
+
+Tobacco taxes
Govt awareness
of tobacco
health risk
+
+
Pro-tobacco
contituencies
++
+
+
+
Trend in tobacco
company revenues
+
Tobacco
production
capacity
+
Smoking as a
social norm
+
+
Funding for tobacco
control programs
+
+
Public
awareness of
tobacco health
risk
-
+
+
+
People starting
smoking
+
People quitting
+
smoking
+
Tobacco control
programs
+
+
+
Health insurers
coverage of tobacco
quitting costs
-
+
Tobacco marketing
activities -
+Gov. income
+
Funding for tobacco
health research
+
+
Smokers
+
Tax revenues
from smokers
+ Govt funding of
tobacco control
Researchers
awarness of
tobacco health
risk
+
+
Tobacco revenues
+
Anti-tobacco
constituencies
+
+
Health care costs
Anti-tobacco
litigation
Anti-tobacco
legislation
<Perceived importance
of other health
programs>
- Govt willingness to +
act against tobacco
Tobacco products
+
availability
xxx
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
Pressure on tobacco
companies to reduce
marketing activities
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
43
<Anti-tobacco
litigation>
Perceived importance of
other health programs
-
+
+
+Tobacco taxes
Govt awareness
of tobacco
health risk
+
+
Pro-tobacco
contituencies
++
+
+
+
Trend in tobacco
company revenues
+
Tobacco
production
capacity
+
Smoking as a
social norm
+
+
Funding for tobacco
control programs
+
+
Public
awareness of
tobacco health
risk
-
+
+
+
People starting
smoking
+
People quitting
+
smoking
+
Tobacco control
programs
+
+
+
Health insurers
coverage of tobacco
quitting costs
-
+
Tobacco marketing
activities -
+Gov. income
+
Funding for tobacco
health research
+
+
Smokers
+
Tax revenues
from smokers
+ Govt funding of
tobacco control
Researchers
awarness of
tobacco health
risk
+
+
Tobacco revenues
+
Anti-tobacco
constituencies
+
+
Health care costs
Anti-tobacco
litigation
Anti-tobacco
legislation
<Perceived importance
of other health
programs>
- Govt willingness to +
act against tobacco
Tobacco products
+
availability
xxx
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
Pressure on tobacco
companies to reduce
marketing activities
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
44
A “Shard” of a Tobacco Model
Unfolding an Aging Chain of Smokers
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
45
smoking
adults
dying
nonsmoking
adults dying
Children
births p year
<Fraction
smoking>
children maturing
Teens
Adults
teens aging
nonsmoking
elderly
dying
adults aging
Elderly
smoking elderly
dying
fraction children
smoking
fraction teens
smoking
fraction adults
smoking
fraction elderly
smoking
Children
smoking
Teens
smoking
Adults
smoking
Elderly
smoking
child smokers
maturing
new children
smoking
teen smokers
aging
new teens
smoking
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
new adults
smoking
adult smokers
aging
Adult smokers
dying
elderly smokers
dying
new elderly
smoking
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
46
smoking
adults
dying
nonsmoking
adults dying
child years
Children
births p year
<Fraction
smoking>
children maturing
teen years
nonsmoking
elderly
dying
adult years
Teens
Adults
teens aging
adults aging
Elderly
smoking elderly
dying
fraction children
smoking
fraction teens
smoking
fraction adults
smoking
fraction elderly
smoking
Children
smoking
Teens
smoking
Adults
smoking
Elderly
smoking
child smokers
maturing
new children
smoking
teen smokers
aging
new teens
smoking
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
new adults
smoking
adult smokers
aging
Adult smokers
dying
elderly smokers
dying
new elderly
smoking
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
47
adult birth rate
teen birth rate
teen births
child years
Children
births p year
<Fraction
smoking>
children maturing
smoking
adults
dying
nonsmoking
adults dying
adult births
teen years
nonsmoking
elderly
dying
adult years
Teens
Adults
teens aging
adults aging
Elderly
smoking elderly
dying
fraction children
smoking
fraction teens
smoking
fraction adults
smoking
fraction elderly
smoking
Children
smoking
Teens
smoking
Adults
smoking
Elderly
smoking
child smokers
maturing
new children
smoking
teen smokers
aging
new teens
smoking
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
new adults
smoking
adult smokers
aging
Adult smokers
dying
elderly smokers
dying
new elderly
smoking
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
48
adult birth rate
teen birth rate
teen births
child years
Children
births p year
<Fraction
smoking>
smoking
adults
dying
nonsmoking
adults dying
adult births
teen years
children maturing
nonsmoking
elderly
dying
adult years
Teens
Adults
teens aging
adults aging
Elderly
smoking elderly
dying
fraction children
smoking
fraction teens
smoking
fraction adults
smoking
fraction elderly
smoking
Children
smoking
Teens
smoking
Adults
smoking
Elderly
smoking
child smokers
maturing
teen smokers
aging
new teens
smoking
new children
smoking
new adults
smoking
adult smokers
aging
Adult smokers
dying
elderly smokers
dying
new elderly
smoking
teens not
smoking
<Teens>
fraction of teens
initiated per year
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
49
adult birth rate
teen birth rate
teen births
child years
Children
births p year
<Fraction
smoking>
smoking
adults
dying
nonsmoking
adults dying
adult births
teen years
children maturing
nonsmoking
elderly
dying
adult years
Teens
Adults
teens aging
adults aging
Elderly
smoking elderly
dying
fraction children
smoking
fraction teens
smoking
fraction adults
smoking
fraction elderly
smoking
Children
smoking
Teens
smoking
Adults
smoking
Elderly
smoking
child smokers
maturing
teen smokers
aging
new teens
smoking
new children
smoking
new adults
smoking
adult smokers
aging
Adult smokers
dying
elderly smokers
dying
new elderly
smoking
teens not
smoking
<Teens>
fraction of teens
initiated per year
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
50
adult birth rate
teen birth rate
teen births
child years
Children
births p year
<Fraction
smoking>
children not
smoking
teen years
children maturing
nonsmoking
elderly
dying
smoking
adults
dying
nonsmoking
adults dying
adult births
adult years
Teens
Adults
teens aging
Elderly
adults aging
smoking elderly
dying
fraction children
smoking
fraction teens
smoking
fraction adults
smoking
fraction elderly
smoking
Children
smoking
Teens
smoking
Adults
smoking
Elderly
smoking
child smokers
maturing
new children
smoking
teens not
smoking
teen smokers
aging
new teens
new adults
smoking
smoking
adults not
smoking
Adult smokers
dying
elderly not
smoking
<Children>
fraction of children
initiated p yr
<Teens>
<Adults>
fraction of teens
initiated per year
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
adult smokers
aging
fraction of adults
initiatied per year
elderly smokers
dying
new elderly
smoking
<Elderly>
fraction of elderly
initiated per year
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
51
adult birth rate
teen birth rate
adult death rate
child years
Children
births p year
<Fraction
smoking>
children not
smoking
teen years
children maturing
nonsmoking
elderly
dying
smoking
adults
dying
nonsmoking
adults dying
adult births
teen births
elderly years
adult years
Teens
Adults
teens aging
Elderly
adults aging
smoking elderly
dying
fraction children
smoking
fraction teens
smoking
fraction adults
smoking
fraction elderly
smoking
Children
smoking
Teens
smoking
Adults
smoking
Elderly
smoking
child smokers
maturing
new children
smoking
teens not
smoking
teen smokers
aging
new teens
new adults
smoking
smoking
adults not
smoking
<Children>
fraction of children
initiated p yr
<Teens>
<Adults>
fraction of teens
initiated per year
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy
University at Albany
adult smokers
aging
Adult smokers
dying
elderly not
smoking
adult smoking
death multiplier
fraction of adults
initiatied per year
elderly smokers
dying
new elderly
smoking
<elderly year
elderly smoking
death multplier
<Elderly>
<adult death
rate>
fraction of elderly
initiated per year
G. P. Richardson
July 2006
52