(ANalysis Of VAriance) Daniel Heaton MBA 634 March 27, 2006 What Will Be Covered • What ANOVA is and where it comes from • How ANOVA can be used in Quality Management • The basic parts of ANOVA • How ANOVA works and how it can be performed using Excel • Example and Exercise for ANOVA Application 6/29/2016 MBA 634 2 What ANOVA is • An ANOVA is a guide for determining whether or not an event was most likely due to the random chance of natural variation. • Or, conversely, the same method provides guidance in saying with a specific level of confidence that a certain factor (X) or factors (X, Y, and/or Z) were the more likely reason for the event. 6/29/2016 MBA 634 3 Where ANOVA Comes From Ronald Aylmer Fisher (1890-1962) 6/29/2016 MBA 634 4 Brainstorming Exercise • Why would you want to know if the difference between data sets is statistically significant? • What kinds of data are used or collected in your organization that ANOVA would be useful for? 6/29/2016 MBA 634 5 The Different Types of ANOVA One-way between groups • You are looking at the differences between the groups. • There is only one factor (or result) which you are using to define the groups. • This is the simplest version of ANOVA. • This type of ANOVA can also be used to compare variables between different groups. 6/29/2016 MBA 634 6 The Different Types of ANOVA One-way repeated measures • A one way repeated measures ANOVA is used when you have a single group on which you have measured something a few times. • You would use a one-way repeated measures ANOVA to see if results changed significantly over time. 6/29/2016 MBA 634 7 The Different Types of ANOVA Two-way between groups • A two-way between groups ANOVA is used to look at complex groupings. • Examines the effects of two different factors and their interactions. • Each of the main effects are one-way tests. The interaction effect is simply asking "is there any significant difference in performance when you consider two factors acting together". 6/29/2016 MBA 634 8 The Different Types of ANOVA Two-way repeated measures • This version of ANOVA simple uses the repeated measures structure of the “One-way repeated measures” method and includes the interaction effect of the “Two-way between groups” method. 6/29/2016 MBA 634 9 The ANOVA Table 6/29/2016 MBA 634 10 The Basic Parts of ANOVA SS or Sum of Squares • This is the measure of the variation around the mean. There are usually three different values of SS calculated: – SSG measures variation of the group means around the overall mean (Between Groups) – SSE measures the variation of each observation around its group mean (Within Groups) – SST measures variation of the data around the overall mean (Total) 6/29/2016 MBA 634 11 The Basic Parts of ANOVA df or Degrees of Freedom • This is the factor that adjusts for how large the groups are and the number of groups being considered. They are calculated as follows: – Number of Groups (j) – 1 for SSG – Sample Size (n) – Number of Groups (j) for SSE – Sample Size (n) - 1 for SST 6/29/2016 MBA 634 12 The Basic Parts of ANOVA MS = Mean Square = SS/df • This is like a standard deviation. Its numerator is the sum of squared deviations (SS), divided by the appropriate number of degrees of freedom. 6/29/2016 MBA 634 13 The Basic Parts of ANOVA F (F-Statistic or F-Ratio) = MSG/MSE • This tells you the proportion of variation between the groups compared to the variation within the groups. – In general, the larger this value is, the more likely the variation between the groups is significant. – The level of significance is determined by comparing it to the F-Critical value for the samples. If the F-Statistic is larger than F-Critical, then the variation between the groups is statistically significant. 6/29/2016 MBA 634 14 How to Perform ANOVA Using Excel 1. Enter the data into Excel 6/29/2016 MBA 634 15 How to Perform ANOVA Using Excel 1. Enter the data into excel 2. Access ANOVA function using: Tools > Data Analysis > ANOVA: Single Factor 6/29/2016 MBA 634 16 How to Perform ANOVA Using Excel 1. Enter the data into excel 2. Access ANOVA function using: Tools > Data Analysis > ANOVA: Single Factor 3. Select Range of Cells where data is located for “Input Range” and select other options as appropriate and click “OK” 6/29/2016 MBA 634 17 How to Perform ANOVA Using Excel Excel Output 6/29/2016 MBA 634 18 A Real World Example • Three inspectors wanted to see how accurately they measure a dimension of parts they inspect. • They each measured the same 10 parts in random order multiple times and the measurements are recorded as follows. 6/29/2016 MBA 634 19 A Real World Example 6/29/2016 MBA 634 20 A Real World Example • Since they want to look at different parts and different operators with repeated measurements, they use the “Anova: TwoFactor With Replication” function. 6/29/2016 MBA 634 21 A Real World Example Excel Results 6/29/2016 MBA 634 22 A Real World Example Excel Results • The variation within the inspectors measurements, between the inspectors, and of interactions between the two were all not significant. • However, this data helps them to see that most of the variation is due to the gage and not the operator. 6/29/2016 MBA 634 23 ANOVA Exercise • Three friends want to see who is the best bowler. • They each play a different number of games and record their scores. • Analyze the data and determine which one is the best bowler, and if the results are significant or by chance. 6/29/2016 MBA 634 24 ANOVA Exercise Enter the following data into Excel and analyze it using the “Anova: Single Factor” function. 6/29/2016 MBA 634 25 ANOVA Exercise Procedure • Select: Tools > Data Analysis > Anova: Single Factor • Select Input Range and other values as shown. 6/29/2016 MBA 634 26 ANOVA Exercise Results • Joe has the highest average score • The results are statistically significant and not due to chance 6/29/2016 MBA 634 27 Summary • ANOVA is a useful and powerful tool for determining if differences are statistically significant. • It can also be used to establish cause and effect relationships with a specific degree of certainty • Excel has three ANOVA functions that can be used fro basic analysis of variance. 6/29/2016 MBA 634 28 Readings List • The basic concepts of ANOVA can be found in almost any statistics text book. 6/29/2016 MBA 634 29 Readings List • Books – Damon, Richard A., Experimental design, ANOVA, and regression, New York, Harper & Row, 1987. – Miller, Rupert G., Beyond ANOVA, basics of applied statistics, New York, Wiley, 1986. – Rutherford, Andrew, Introducing Anova and Ancova : a GLM approach, Thousand Oaks, SAGE, 2001. – Weiss, David J., Analysis of variance and functional measurement : a practical guide, New York, Oxford University Press, 2006. 6/29/2016 MBA 634 30 Readings List • Online Resources – – – – – – – 6/29/2016 http://www.isixsigma.com/library/content/c021111a.asp http://www.uwsp.edu/psych/cw/statmanual/anovaterms.html http://www.csse.monash.edu.au/~smarkham/resources/anova.htm www.math.yorku.ca/SCS/StatResource.html www.statsci.org/teaching.html http://www.sportsci.org/resource/stats/index.html http://www.uwsp.edu/psych/cw/statmanual/index.html MBA 634 31