“Women, Minorities And War:
The Impact Of Wartime Mobilization On
Political Rights in Europe, 1900-1955 ”
Interstate
War
Political
Rights
David Rousseau and Bruce Newsome
Relationship to Prior Work
Project #1
Democracy and War:
Forthcoming Stanford.
Democracy
Project #2
“Identifying Threats and
Threatening Identities”:
Under Review.
Shared
Identity
Project #3
Military Conflict and
Political Rights
Military
Conflict
(-)
(-)
War
Threat
Perception
Democracy
Identity
Conflicting Hypotheses
Tilly: War Made the State. But What Type of State?
• Garrison State School
War
(-)
Political
Rights
• Extraction School
War
(+)
Political
Rights
Impact of War on Specific Groups
Direct vs. Indirect
Participation
Majority
Females
Males
Minority
Males
Measuring Political Rights
• Individual Rights
I) Right to Hold Office
II) Right to Form Political Parties
III) Right to Vote in National Elections
IV) Freedom of Expression
• Collective Rights
I. Free and Fair Elections
II. Legislative Power Over the Executive
III. Rule of Law
IV. Military Intervention in Society
Code for Majority Males, Women, and Minority Males
Example of Political Rights Coding Rules
III) Right to Vote in National Elections:
3) Unrestricted: All adults in the sub-population have the right to
vote in national elections.
2) Slightly Restricted: Although most adults have the right to
vote in national elections, there are some restrictions. These
restrictions affect no more than 20% of the sub-population.
1) Substantially Restricted: The right to vote in national
elections is severely curtailed. Due to numerous types of
restrictions, the percentage of the sub-population eligible to
vote in national elections falls between 20% and 80%.
0) Extremely Restricted: The right to vote in national elections is
restricted to less than 20% of the sub-population.
Research Design
• New Data Set: 24 European States, 1900-1955
• Measuring Military Conflict
a) Cumulative Battle Deaths
and Number of Militarized Disputes
b) Lagged Troop Mobilization
• Competing Explanations
a) Domestic & International Suffrage Movement
b) Diffusion of Ideas
c) Economic Development
d) Power of the Left in Society
Bivariate Results: Collective Rights
Free and Fair Elections
------------------------------------------------------Decreased
No
Increased
Rights
Change
Rights
--------------------Peacetime
2%
97%
1%
Wartime
8%
89%
3%
Just After War
4%
88%
8%
N=1141; Chi Square (4)=47.0; Probability = .000
Similar: Rule of Law, Legislative Power, and Military Intervention
Graphical Results: Individual Rights
Dependent Variables:
Cumulative Battle Deaths.
Model 1
Females
Model 2
Minority
Males
-0.002
0.001
***
Lagged Mobilization
8.801
5.533
*
21.587
6.974
***
10.339
6.363
*
3.358
8.489
Strong Domestic Movement
3.648
0.680
***
3.764
0.942
***
2.426
1.044
**
4.212
1.147
-0.377
0.558
0.987
0.889
0.619
0.712
0.709
0.823
1.493
0.811
**
Model 4
Collective
Rights
-0.003
0.001
-0.002
0.001
IAW Attendance
***
Model 3
Majority
Males
-0.001
0.001
4.361
0.804
Progressive Social Programs
0.327
-0.018
-0.250
-0.064
0.273
0.365
0.392
0.417
**
-0.107
0.948
1.293
1.291
0.819
0.948
1.154
1.197
Catholic
1.521
0.845
Nationalist Struggle
0.363
-0.506
-1.873
0.665
0.991
1.034
1.037
0.0002
0.0002
0.0004
0.0003
0.0003
0.0002
0.0004
0.0003
-0.0001
0.0002
-0.0002
0.0002
-0.0002
0.0002
-0.0003
0.0002
-0.905
0.778
-1.080
0.889
-1.522
0.737
1.771
1.648
Iron and Steel Production
Urban Population
Occupied During War
**
Occupied by Democracy
3.426
1.546
**
2.464
1.625
Constant
1.472
0.397
***
5.646
0.934
Number of obs
F( 12, 23)
Prob > F
Adjusted R-squared
Number of clusters
1079
42.5
0
0.51
24
1079
9
0.0
0.25
24
*
***
8.007
0.888
1079
9
0.0
0.17
24
***
0.529
0.698
Neighborhood Diffusion
***
***
**
**
***
-0.333
*
-2.241
0.916
***
3.111
1.295
***
7.240
1.299
***
1078
40
0.0
0.26
24
Conclusions
• Conclusions:
1) During War Political Rights Contract
2) After High Mobilization Political Rights Expand
3) Direct Participation by Women Not Required
• Future Research
1) Expand the Spatial & Temporal Domain
2) Greater Differentiation of Minorities
3) More Sophisticated Modeling of the “J-Curve”
4) Case Studies and Oral Histories
OLD SLIDES BELOW
Relationship to Prior Work
Project #1: Democracy and War: Institutions, Norms,
and the Evolution of International
Conflict. Forthcoming Stanford.
Project #2: “Identifying Threats and Threatening
Identities: The Social Construction of
Realism and Liberalism.” Under Review.
Project #3: Military Conflict and Political Rights
War and State Building
Technological
Innovation in
Warfare
Tactical
Innovations
in Warfare
Expansion in
the Size of
Armies
Mobilize Fiscal
Resources:
Expand Tax System
Desperate
Need for
Revenue
Mobilize Human
Resources:
Recruit Mercenaries
and later Conscripts
Expand
Coercive
Apparatus