AQUACULTURAL SITUATION
AND OUTLOOK
“TEACH A PERSON HOW TO
FISH -- HE CAN SURVIVE”
“TEACH A PERSON HOW TO
GROW FISH -- HE CAN
MAKE A LIVING” ??
Jerry R. Crews
Auburn University
SRAOC
SEPTEMBER 2002
WORLD FISHERIES
2000
CHINA
35
30
MMT
25
20
15
10
5
FAO
PERU
JAPAN
INDIA
U.S.
FISHERY EXPORTER
2000
5
THAILAND
$ BIL
4
CHINA
NORWAY
U.S.
3
2
FAO
CANADA
DENMARK
FISHERY IMPORTER
2000
JAPAN
15
U.S.
$ BIL
10
5
0
FAO
SPAIN
FRANCE
ITALY
WORLD SEAFOOD SUPPLY
2000
WILD CATCH
72%
FAO
AQUACULTURE
28%
PERCENT
WORLD CAPTURE FISHERIES AND
AQUACULTURE PRODUCTION
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
90
91
92
93
94
AQUACULTURE
NMFS
95
96
97
98
99
CAPTURE FISHERIES
'00
WORLD AQUACULTURE
2000
25
CHINA
MMT
20
15
10
INDONESIA
5
FAO
BANGLADESH
JAPAN
INDIA
THAILAND
VIETNAM
U. S. SEAFOOD SUPPLY
1999
WILD CATCH
27%
NMFS
AQUACULTURE
9%
IMPORTS
64%
U. S. SEAFOOD SUPPLY
2001
WILD CATCH
18%
NMFS
AQUACULTURE
7%
IMPORTS
75%
FISH AND SHELLFISH
1970 - 2001
# PER CAPITA
PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
11.7
70
USDA
12.1
12.4
75
80
15.6
15.0
15.0
14.9
85
90
95
14.8
'00
'01
U. S. SEAFOOD CONSUMPTION
SHRIMP
3.4
1991
2001
#/CAPITA
3.0
2.6
SALMON
2.2
1.8
COD
1.4
CLAMS
1.0
0.6
0.2
TUNA
NFI
POLLOCK
CATFISH
CRABS
2001 U. S. SEAFOOD CONSUMPTION
SHRIMP
3.4
#/CAPITA
3.0
2.6
2.2
First Time Tilapia Made “Top Ten”
SALMON
1.8
CATFISH
1.4
1.0
CLAMS
FLATFISH
0.6
0.2
TUNA
NFI
POLLOCK
COD
CRABS
TILAPIA
U.S.
Aquaculture
Production
Production States
WESTERN
Trout
Salmon
Shellfish
Striped Bass
Tilapia
TROPICAL & SUBTROPICAL
Ornamental, Food and Shellfish
NORTH CENTRAL
NORTHEASTERN
Perch
Striped Bass
Tilapia
Salmon
Shellfish
Striped Bass
Catfish
Striped Bass
Tilapia
Baitfish
SOUTHERN
Aquaculture Sales
U. S. AQUACULTURE VALUE
2000
MARINE
15%
NMFS
FRESHWATER
85%
Sales by Aquaculture Category
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Food fish - 70%
Mollusks - 9%
Ornamental fish - 7%
Baitfish - 4%
Crustaceans - 4%
Sport/Game - 1%
Other animal aqua. - 5%
U. S. AQUACULTURE
VALUE - 2000
STRIPED BASS
3%
TROUT
7%
TILAPIA
3%
SALMON
10%
CATFISH
46%
CRAWFISH
3%
BAITFISH
5%
NMFS
OTHER
19%
OYSTERS
4%
U.S.
Catfish
Industry
CONSISTENT PRODUCT
CATFISH CONSUMPTION
5.6
50
6
5
4.4
40
3.7
30
4
2.9
2.4
20
10
3
2.3
2.0
2
1.4
0.9
0.5
0.8
0.9
0
1
0
TX IL CA LA TN AR FL MS AL MI MO GA
MIL #
PER CAPITA
CATFISH SALES 2001
OTH
5%
AR
15%
AL
16%
LA
6%
USDA
MS
58%
CATFISH ACREAGE
AND NUMBER OF FARMS
210
190
170
150
130
110
90
70
50
1886
1500
1249
987
1000
500
1982
1992
1000 AC
USDA
2000
2002
FARMS
CATFISH ACREAGE
AND OPERATION SIZE
157
190
160
170
135
150
130
110
110
90
80
75
85
70
50
60
1982
1992
1000 AC
USDA
2002
AC/FARM
CATFISH PRODUCTION AND
INTENSITY
3755
700
2981
600
500
400
300
1000
200
100
0
1981
1991
MIL #
USDA
2001
#/AC
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
CENTS/LB
CATFISH PRICES
1970 - 2002
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
70
USDA and Crews
75
80
85
90
95
'00
'01
'02(p)
CATFISH PRICES
1970 - 2002
92
CENTS/LB
82
72
62
52
42
32
70
75
80
85
90
FARM
USDA (82-84 real base)
95
REAL
'00
'01
'02(p)
CATFISH PRICE PAID TO PRODUCERS
80
5 YR AVG
75
10 YR AVG
70
65
25 YR AVG
60
2001
55
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec
There is a strong seasonal aspect to pricing as seen in the 5, 10 and 25-year average
price received curves above. However, the norm was not followed in 2001.
Catfish Price Paid to Producer
80
2000 price
75
$/lb
70
65
2001 price
$.10 + per lb less
than 2000 = -14%
60
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
55
Catfish Price Paid to Producer
70
2001 price
60
2002 price
55
$.11 + per lb less
than 2001 = -17%
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
50
Jan
$/lb
65
Catfish Product Form Sales
21%
17%
Whole fish
Fillets
Other
62%
The catfish fillet product form is preferred over other product forms (whole fish, steaks, nuggets).
Fresh and Frozen Catfish Products
350,000
1,000s of Lbs.
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01
Fresh
Frozen
Total
Over the last 15 years, there has been an ever widening production difference between
frozen and fresh catfish products. Frozen catfish products are in higher demand now than
ever before with 60% of all catfish products being frozen.
Source: USDA Economics and Statistics System, NASS
U.S. Catfish Fillet Processing
1,000s of Lbs.
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01
Fresh
Frozen
Total
Over the years, frozen catfish fillets had increasingly demanded over fresh fillets.
1,000s lb.
Imports of “Catfish” to U.S.
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
119%
139%
149%
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
PERCENT
IMPORTS VS U.S. FROZEN FILLET SUPPLY
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
14
85
12
80
10
75
8
70
6
65
4
2
60
0
55
95
96
97
98
FROZEN FILLETS
99
00
01
6/02
FARMER PRICE
FARMER PRICES (CENTS/LB)
% OF US FROZEN
FILLET SUPPLY
VIETNAM IMPORTS VS FARMER PRICES
Industry Response to Imports
• Legislation
– “Country of Origin” labeling - MS, LA ?
– Removal of Channel Catfish images on import
packaging - NO
– Seek to have ‘Catfish’ name removed from nonIctalurid fish species - 1 YEAR BAN, U.S.
• Advertising
– Concentrate US safety/health standards - CHEMICALS ?
– Imports are trying to mislead consumers - TCI
• Legal
– Anti-dumping case-CFA PASS THE FIRST HURDLE
Shrimp/Crawfish Industry - EVALUATING
U.S. OR VIETNAM?
What’s Causing Low Catfish Prices?
•
•
•
•
•
Increased Vietnamese frozen fillet imports
Economic uncertainty
Stagnant per capita consumption
On-farm inventories up
Processing capacity (up)
U.S. CATFISH INVENTORY
JULY 1, 2002 vs 2001
14
%
13
12
11
10
FOODFISH
STOCKERS
FINGERLINGS
CATFISH FEED SALES
(32 % PROTEIN)
1000'S TON
900
800
700
600
500
94
TCI and Crews
95
96
97
98
99
'00
'01
'02(p)
U.S. Catfish Round Weight Processed
650,000
4%
600,000
1,000s of lbs
550,000
500,000
450,000
400,000
350,000
* Round-weight process has be flat for the last 3 years.
Source: USDA Economics and Statistics System, NASS and Crews
'02(p)
'01
'00
99
98
97
96
95
94
93
92
91
90
89
88
250,000
87
300,000
Total Producer Catfish Sales
$450,000
-9%
1,000s of Dollars
$400,000
$350,000
$300,000
$250,000
Total 2002 producer sales (processed) down $35 million from 2001,
down $94million from 2000.
Source: USDA Economics and Statistics System, NASS and Crews
'02(p)
'01
'00
99
98
97
96
95
94
93
92
91
90
89
88
$150,000
87
$200,000
Total Processor Catfish Sales
$800,000
-3%
1,000s of Dollars
$700,000
$600,000
$500,000
$400,000
Total 2002 processor sales down $21 million from 2001.
Source: USDA Economics and Statistics System, NASS and Crews
'02(p)
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
$200,000
1987
$300,000
US Catfish Fillet Price
that the Processor Receives 2000 - 2002
FRESH
FROZEN
2.90
2.90
2.80
2.80
2.70
2.70
2.60
2.60
2.50
2.50
2.40
2.40
2.30
2.30
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2000
2001
2002
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2000
2001
2002
PRODUCER’S EFFICIENCY
• Processors requiring increased fish size
• 1980’s => 1.00 - 1.25 lb average weight
• 1990’s => 1.25 - 1.50 lb average weight
• 2000’s => 1.50 - 2.00+ lb average weight
• Larger fish require longer production cycle
• From 24 months to 36 months (from spawn to skillet)
– increased production risks
– increases production costs
Growing Larger Catfish
7,000 Stocking Rate; 6 in Fingerlings
Item
Unit
1.50 #
2.00 #
Dif
Growth Time Month
15.35
19.33
4.98
Death Loss
%
31
39
8
Production
Lb/Ac/Yr
5690
5333
357
FCR
# Feed/# Gain 2.25
2.61
0.36
VC
$/Lb
49.03
54.38
5.35
TC
$/Lb
62.23
68.46
6.23
CATFISH FEED PRICES
(32 % PROTEIN)
275
$/TON
250
225
200
175
150
94
MS
95
96
97
98
99
'00
'01
'02(p) '03(p)
Cash Costs
for a 250 Acre Catfish Farm Stocking 7,500 5" Fish Per Year
600
Income Above Variable Costs
400
200
Fish Price
75 cents/lb
0
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
-200
70 cents/lb
-400
65 cents/lb
-600
60 cents/lb
-800
55 cents/lb
-1,000
-1,200
Feed price per ton
310
Lower Prices and Net Returns
• The cost to produce U.S. farm-raised
catfish is in the range of $0.60 - $0.75 / lb
• At the Present Price of $0.50 - 0.60 / lb:
– Less efficient farmers will:
• Lose money
• May not cover cash and capital costs
• Go “belly up”
– More efficient farmers will:
• Receive a lower profit
• May not cover all variable costs
• Can stay in business in the short-run
GROWTH IN THE U. S.
• EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, AT A SLOWER PACE
• BECOMING MORE EFFICIENT
 PRODUCERS AND PROCESSORS
• ALLIANCE/CONSOLIDATION
 PRODUCER/PROCESSOR/FEEDMILL/GENETICS
• U. S. HAS COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE
 INDEPENDENT PRODUCERS/PROCESSORS
 FEED GRAINS
 INFRASTRUCTURE
 MARKETS
ONE BILLION POUNDS BY 2010 ??????????
AQUACULTURAL SITUATION
AND OUTLOOK
“TEACH A PERSON HOW TO
FISH -- HE CAN SURVIVE”
“TEACH A PERSON HOW TO
GROW FISH -- HE CAN
MAKE A LIVING” ??
Jerry R. Crews
Auburn University
SRAOC
SEPTEMBER 2002