Southern Agriculture's Current Financial Situation

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2000 Southern Region Agricultural

Outlook Conference

September 25-27, 2000

Atlanta, Georgia

By: Bill Melton

Discussion Topic

“Southern Agriculture’s Current

Financial Situation” from

An Ag Lender’s Viewpoint

Business & Strategy

District Structure

AgFirst

Farm Credit Bank

(including wholly-owned subsidiary Farm Credit

Finance Corp. of Puerto Rico)

27 District Associations

Provide credit and related services to borrowers in

15 states and Puerto Rico

Borrowers

82,000 farmers, agribusinesses and rural homeowners

Business & Strategy

AgFirst Farm Credit Bank

Today, AgFirst is the largest single provider of credit to agriculture in its 15 state region (and

Puerto Rico) through its 27 (1) affiliated Associations, which are in turn owned by approximately

82,000 farmers, agribusinesses, and rural homeowners

1993

1994

1995

1916

1933

1988

The Federal Land Bank of Columbia was one of 12 banks established by Congress to provide a dependable source of long-term credit to American agriculture

By another act of Congress, the Federal Intermediate Credit Bank of Columbia was formed as a vehicle to fund short- and intermediate-term credit to agriculture. See 1

The Federal Land Bank of Columbia and Federal Intermediate Credit Bank of

Columbia merged to form the Farm Credit Bank of Columbia

The Federal Intermediate Credit Bank of Jackson merged into the Farm Credit Bank of

Columbia. See 2

Four associations, formerly affiliated with the Farm Credit Bank of Louisville, reaffiliated to the Farm Credit Bank of Columbia. See 3

The Farm Credit Banks of Columbia and Baltimore consolidated to form AgFirst Farm

Credit Bank. See 4

CHATTANOOGA

AgFirst’s growth has led to greater geographic, customer, and commodity diversification

(1) To be consolidated to 23 Associations as of January 1, 2001

Business & Strategy

AgFirst FCB Business Profile

Total earning assets: $11.1 billion as of 6/30/00

Direct Lending

Line of credit extended to member associations under General Financing

Agreement (GFA) Secondary

Investments

20.4%

Direct

Lending

67.2%

Investments

Liquidity reserve

Diversify income source

Mortgage

2.4%

Participations

10.0%

Participations

Provide overlines to member associations

Provide a national reach

Diversify income source

Secondary Mortgage Marketing Unit

(SMMU)

Facilitates loans through the FNMA and FAMC

Total earning assets: $8.9 billion as of 12/31/95

Participations

Diversify income source

8.0%

Investments

17.0%

Support Services

Appraisal review, Portfolio Management,

Credit Policy Guidance, Information Services,

Accounting, Marketing, Human Resources, &

Insurance Services

Direct

Lending

75.0%

Business & Strategy

Association Portfolio Borrower Profile

AgFirst's credit exposure is widely dispersed through 27 associations that serve 82,000 borrowing entities

Association customers, while primarily rural and rooted in farming, are also predominantly part-time farmers and rural homeowners

Full-time farmers' incomes are significantly supported by off-farm income

Customer size for both full-time and part-time farmers indicates a large number of small balance loans, which significantly mitigates agricultural commodity/industry credit risk

Customer Segment

Number of Borrowers

Median Off-Farm Income

Median Farm Credit Loan

Median Total Liabilities

Median Net Worth

Median Debt: Net Worth

Median Spread on Loan

Source: AgFirst Marketing Department

Full-Time Farmer

32,000

$28,000

$66,000

$202,000

$473,000

.43:1.00

1.90%

Part-Time Farmer

38,000

$55,000

$36,000

$100,000

$230,000

.43:1.00

2.00%

Rural Home Owner

12,000

$45,000

$32,000

$61,000

$74,000

.82:1.00

1.30%

Status of AgFirst FCB

Combined Income of AgFirst and Affiliated

Associations as of December 31, 1999 $218.2 Million

Almost identical to previous year’s earnings

Combined income as of June 30, 2000…$110.5 million

An increase of $10 million from the previous year

Status of AgFirst FCB

11th Consecutive Year Where Earnings Have

Been Stable or Increasing Over Previous Year

Despite $11.5 million in merger expenses year to date, we expect 2000 earnings to exceed the 1999 level

Anticipate an additional $2 million in merger/consolidation before year end

Status of AgFirst FCB

Paid Patronage of $1.2 billion to Our

Stockholders/Borrowers in the last ten years

Gross Loans of $10.1 Billion as of 8/31/00

2.8% average growth for the past 4 years

Growth in loan volume was flat during the past 12 months but is beginning to rebound

As of August 31, 2000, rate of growth is 2.23%

Total Assets of $13.0 Billion as of 8/31/00

Credit Conditions – AgFirst District

Permanent capital levels at June 30, 2000, averaged 17.6%.

The allowance for loan losses total $261.3 million and represent 2.85% of total loans.

Asset quality has remained stable through

August 31, 2000.

45%

40%

35%

30%

65%

60%

55%

50%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

100%

95%

90%

85%

80%

75%

70%

Association Portfolio

Loan Classification Trend

Acceptable OAEM Substandard

Baltimore merger

Credit Conditions – AgFirst District

Earnings remain strong averaged 10.08%.

. As of June 30,

2000, ROA averaged 1.99% and ROE

Loan growth increased to 2.23% as of

August 31, 2000. The growth trend expected to flatten out in 2001.

is

Drought conditions were the deep South states.

most severe in

Association Portfolio

Loan Size Dist.

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,350

2,994

3,732 3,823

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

$0 - $100,000 $100,000 -

$500,000

Loan Size Distribution by Dollar Volume

1,138

6/30/1996

Total Volum e= $8,616m m

6/30/2000

Total Volum e= $9,624m m

900

$500,000 -

$1 million

1,182 1,079

$1 million -

$5 million

214

828

>$5 million

70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

Loan Size Distribution by Number of Relationships

60,602

18,930

0

$0 - $100,000 $100,000 -

$500,000

2,082

$500,000 -

$1 million

6/30/2000

Total Relationships = 82,532

852

$1 million -

$5 million

66

>$5 million

In the district, there are 77 loans that exceed 10% of the holding Association’s capital

The 77 loans are classified:

66 Acceptable

10 Special Mention

Only 2 Associations have more than 1

Special Mention

1 Substandard

Loan size tracks agricultural demographics

Significant number of part-time farmers

Reliance for repayment on non-farm income

Market Overview

AgFirst District Market Position

Dominant lender to agriculture, agribusiness and rural residents in the eastern US

Successfully increased market share through several agricultural credit cycles while improving credit quality

A balance between full-time and parttime farmers – consistent with demographics

Association originated loan portfolio at

6/30/00 has a weighted average maturity of 7 years

Weighted average maturity has declined over time, indicative of focus on growing the non-real estate portfolio

40%

35

15

10

5

0

30

25

20

27.8%

1993

AgFirst District

Source: USDA

Market Share of

Non-Real Estate Agricultural Debt

27.8% 30.7%

32.8%

34.0%

1994 1995 1996

Commercial Banks

1997

FSA

35.9%

1998

Others

Association Originated Loan Portfolio

Real Estate Portfolio

Non-Real Estate Portfolio

Weighted Average Maturity (yrs)

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

54% 52% 50% 46% 47%

46%

8.7

48%

8.1

50%

7.7

54%

7.3

53%

7.0

Association Portfolio

Commodity Diversification

Field Crops

6.6%

Total Portfolio: $9.6 billion

Country Home Loans

6.3%

Fruits/Citrus/Vegs

6.5%

Tobacco

5.7%

Landlords

5.2%

Nursery

4.5%

Other Animals

4.4%

Dairy

7.3%

Grain

8.9%

Swine

4.3%

Other

4.2%

Cotton

3.3%

Poultry

14.7%

Timber

9.1%

Beef

9.1%

As of June 30, 2000.

Association Portfolio

Geographic Distribution by State

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

12/31/95

12/31/96

12/31/97

12/31/98

12/31/99

o a s w t I c a g c i d o !

S a p c

Farmers now have a new crop . . .

Its called “Mailbox Farming”!

Check is in the mail!

Market Overview

U.S. Farmers’ Net Cash Income

$52.8

9.3

$50.4

8.2

$55.2

$59.3

9.2

13.4

$51.1

7.9

$52.6

7.3

$57.5

$58.5

7.3

7.5

$54.9

12.2

$59.1

22.7

$56.8

24.3

$55.3

43.5

42.2

46.0

45.9

43.2

45.3

50.2

51.0

42.7

36.4

32.5

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999*

2000**

Direct Government Payments ($ billions)

Net Cash Income, excluding Direct Government Payments

* Preliminary

Source: USDA 1998

** Forecasted Average of 1990-1998

Market Overview

Government payments as a % of Farm Net

Income by Territory

20

15

10

5

0

45%

40

35

30

25

8% 8%

13%

CoBank Western AgFirst

30%

Texas

40%

41%

43%

22%

Wichita AgAmerica AgriBank US

Composite

Source: USDA 1998

Recipients of Government Payments

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

74%

8.2%

7% 8% 6%

18.9%

10%

15%

34.7%

5%

22.9%

15%

2%

15%

10.6%

1%

42%

4.7%

Less than

$50,000

50,000 -

$99,999

$100,000 -

$249,999

$250,000 -

$499,999

$500,000 -

$999,999

$1 Million and Over

% of Farm % of Gross Sales % of Government Payment

Net Cash Income –

8 Principal Crops

30

($ Billions)

25

20

15

10

Without Government

Payment

5

0

1988 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2002

Crop Year

Effect of Government Payments

Average Effective Prices, 1999/2000

Crop Forecast Farm Price Avg. Effective Price 1/

Corn ($/bu)

Wheat ($/bu)

Soybeans ($/bu)

Cotton ($/lb)

Rice ($/ewt)

1.90

2.55

4.75

0.46 2/

6.00

2.70

4.27

5.83

0.79

11.95

1/ Production value plus government payments divided by production.

2/ August-November average upland cotton price.

“The Dilemma”

“Southern States hardest hit by drought represent barely 2% of the U.S. corn average and less than 9% of the U.S. soybean.”

Source: AgWeb.com

Backdrop for the AgFirst Outlook

Rising Interest Rates

Weather Pattern with Extremes

Low Prices for Many Commodities

Uncertain Farm Policy for the Long Term

Loan Demand is Weakening in Some Areas

Energy Cost have Soared

Massive Transfer of Wealth Occurring

IDEAL TIME for Making Poor Decisions!

Market Overview & Outlook

Overview by Commodity Type

Commodity or

Industry

Meat Complex

Significant segments:

Pork, Broilers, Eggs,

Dairy

Significant company consolidation; vertical integration; drive to compete worldwide

Grain Complex

No significant segment

Production units consolidating. Biotech boosts yields. Genetic modification will regain momentum.

Green Complex

Significant segments,

Nursery, Greenhouse, Sod,

Recreational Property,

Timber

Economic growth stimulates demand at double digit rate.

Fruits/Vegetables

Significant segments,

Citrus, Fresh Vegetables

Globalization of production and distribution. NAFTA shifting production.

Sugar

General Trend

Less U.S. Producer protection

Government

Support/

Regulations

Outlook

Direct support very limited absent dairy. Regulations as to food safety and environment becoming more stringent; cash basis accounting is key.

Near term – very large production in U.S., expansion based on cheap grain. Long term – growth in exports is key.

Support is fueled by midwest dominance in grains and political factors and will continue.

No support. Limited regulations.

Near term – over production and price pressure. Long term –

U.S. competitiveness wins out.

U.S. economic growth to slow sooner rather than later. Sector growth is geographically driven on East Coast and will outperform the economy

Little impact directly.

New crop insurance is available. Food safety concerns continue.

Very important – support of prices since same is true worldwide.

Consolidation of production units. More fresh consumption vs. processed.

Near term – difficult market. Long term – huge integrated producers are globally competitive.

Growth in

Loan Demand

+

Neutral

++

Neutral

Outlook...

Impact of Stress in Ag Economy Will Not Be Borne Equally

Generally some commodities will always be in its down cycle

This year it is broilers, eggs and dairy

Regional, the Eastern U.S. is more diverse in its production agriculture and less dependent on Government support

Free Trade is Critical to a Healthy Ag Economy

NAFTA taking hold with Canada and Mexico, our best trading partners

A very positive sign for Ag was the permanent “Most Favored

Nation” trading status voted for China

The brightest spots to point to in 2000

A robust general economy that producers a Government surplus

$24.3 billion in Government assistance already approved

Outlook…

Continuation of Consolidations within the

Production Side & Processing/Marketing Sector

Poultry & Livestock

Continuation of Strategic Alliances and Long

Term Contracts Between Producers and Food

Companies

Tobacco . . . Finally!

Nursery/Greenhouse Production

Outlook…

Continued Consolidation in Banking including the Farm Credit System

Significant merger activity among associations

23 associations by year end; down from 40 two years ago

Outlook…

Difficult to impossible to get large confined livestock & poultry facilities permitted

Environmental, Land Use, and Food Safety Regulations

Strictly Enforced

Interest rates have risen sharply since June 1999

Energy prices will be a large factor in subsequent adjustments

The Fed appears to have achieved a “Soft Landing”

Early Warning Signals

Are the Statistics Lying of Just Lagging?

Low Delinquencies

Normal Charge-Offs

Few Foreclosures

Stable Asset Quality

Early Warning Signals

Net Farm Income buoyed by Government Payments

 Creates a false Ag Economy

Ag Real Estate Has Held its Value or Risen in Value

 Dilemma is that higher land values make price of product uncompetitive. Example: 4 to 1 difference in price of acre in Iowa and Brazil.

Level of Debt Held by Farmers Not Substantially Higher, but

Becoming Increasingly Dependent on Government Assistance for Repayment Capacity

Predictions

East Coast Agriculture Will Fare Better Than the

Midwest

Prices for Broilers, Eggs, Dairy and Timber Are

All Being Negatively Impacted by Supply

Over-Production Will Again Hurt Hog Prices and Keep Dairy

Profitability Very Low

Over-Production will Continue to be a Problem for U.S.

Agriculture

Troubling Signs for Lenders

Pattern of “flipping land” by speculators

Owners cashing out

Non recourse lending

No “skin in the game” – 100% financing

Expansion without regard for business cycle

Predictions

Another Round Of Shake-Out For Farmers and Ag

Lenders

Advances in Biotechnology will Ensure Food Supply is

Not Diminished by Departing Producers

Consumers may “pay up” for GMO free products

In the Long View, Agriculture will Remain Viable &

Profitable for the Low Cost Producers

2000 Southern Region

Agricultural Outlook Conference

Thank You!

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