Transportation
Dennis Silverman
U. C. Irvine
Physics and Astronomy
Bush’s Ethanol Fuel Proposal
Bush proposes to drop gasoline usage by 20%
in 10 years by increasing ethanol to 15% of
automotive fuel, and increasing car mileage
standards. Responses below.
Public Citizen, called ethanol "neither a clean
nor renewable fuel" and noted that dual-fuel
vehicles that can use either ethanol or gasoline
are allowed to meet lower fuel economy
standards even if they are never filled with
ethanol. Moreover, the group said, the
widespread use of ethanol is "impractical"
because of infrastructure difficulties.
Ethanol
Getting 15% from ethanol is the entire corn crop,
so we need another source such as sugar cane
or ethanol from cellulose in stalks or switch
grass. Corn is mainly used for animal feed and
fructose in foods.
Price of corn has doubled.
Peru planning to grow sugar cane in new
farmland and export ethanol to U.S. Sugar cane
produces twice as much ethanol per acre as
corn. Grows best in tropics.
Price of sugar has increased.
Bush’s Mileage Standard Increase
Public Citizen backed a recently passed House bill to revoke $14
billion in oil subsidies and dedicate the money to developing clean
fuels and increasing energy efficiency. "But Bush has threatened a
veto" of the bill,
A second major plank of Mr. Bush’s energy proposal calls for
increasing fuel-efficiency standards of cars and trucks by 4 percent
a year — about one mile per gallon — starting in 2010 for cars and
2012 for trucks. He wants authority be taken from Congress and
given to the Dept. of Transportation. Also, not use a fleet average
but do it for each model, letting heavier cars get off easier.
"Raising the fuel economy of the cars and trucks we drive by 10
miles per gallon over 10 years is the simplest step we can take,"
said Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.). "This would reduce 18 percent
of greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles by 2025. And it would
save nearly the amount of oil we currently import from the Persian
Gulf."
Contributions to World Oil
Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Iran
CO2 Emissions in the US
CO2 Emissions in the US
by End-Use Sector
Industrial
32%
Transportation
31%
Buildings
37%
US CO2 Emissions from Transportation
Other
3%
Boats
3%
Aircraft
10%
Other
Trucks
19%
Locomotives
2%
Buses
1%
Cars
35%
Light
Trucks
27%
U.S. Carbon emission sources
DEMAND REDUCTION DUE TO USE OF
FUEL EFFICIENCY OPTIONS
FEDERAL FUEL ECONOMY STANDARDS
PROGRAM
Known as the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE)
standards
Each model year (MY) manufacturers are required to:
- Achieve average of 27.5 mpg for fleet of new passenger cars
- Achieve average of 20.7 mpg for fleet of new light duty trucks (includes
minivans and SUVs). Increased to 21.6 for MY 2006 and 22.2 for MY2007
Despite its flaws, as a result of CAFE, gasoline consumption
is down roughly 2.8 million barrels/day from what it would be
without CAFE and greenhouse gas emissions translate to a
7% reduction in CO2.
In Europe, per capita gas usage is 286 liters/year compared to 1,624
liters/year in the U. S.
RECOMMENDED PLAN TO REDUCE
CALIFORNIA’S PETROLEUM DEPENDENCE
(as proposed by CA Energy Commission & Air Resources Board)
I. Adopt a statewide goal of reducing demand for onroad gasoline and diesel to 15% below the 2003
demand level by 2020 and maintain that level for
foreseeable future. (Or, 25% reduction to get to 1990
levels. AB32)
II. Work in the national political arena to gain
establishment of federal fuel economy standards that
double the fuel efficiency of new cars, light trucks and
SUVs.
III. Establish a goal to increase use of non-petroleum
fuels to 20% of on-road fuel consumption by 2020 and
to 30% by 2030.
OVERALL SUMMARY OF EFFECTS OF OPTIONS
IN ON-ROAD DEMAND FORECAST
Vehicles as Part of the Solution?
8 cylinder vehicles are 25% of the market.
– 6 cylinder are 41%.
– 4 cylinder are only 30%.
Hybrids are 1.5%, expected to grow to 4% in 6 years.
Moving motorists down one step in engine size would
clearly increase the fleet mileage, without inventing or
buying new technology.
Plug-in hybrids which can do 40 mile trips on electricity
alone, but have to say where extra electricity will come
from.
– They cost $2,000 more than a regular hybrid.
– But their usage is equivalent to paying $1.00 to $1.50 per
gallon of gas.
Cylinder-shutdown engines that change 8 to 4 cylinders
when cruising, can save 10-20% on gas mileage.
Modern Diesel engines are clean and can save 20% on
CO2 production in getting 20-30% more mpg.
Comparative National Fuel
Economies
Automotive conservation solutions
People could :
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Drive less aggressively on the gas pedal
Drive at the speed limit
Plan trips for less total driving
Use their higher gas mileage vehicle more
People could use car pooling
People could take public transportation
These actions would actually have an immediate
effect on lowering consumption and bringing
down the price of gas.
Transportation Substitutions
Telecommute: only 5% of employees do so.
Buy over the internet, with serial delivery, rather than
each person going to the mall. Also, goods don’t have to
be delivered to shops first.
Telephone or Video conferencing or selling, rather than
air transport (already training teens by myspace)
Email rather than snail-mail
Internet websites saving journal, book and document
production from trees, and trips to the library
Coming electronic books and newspapers on a tablet
More home entertainment saving trips to cinema
The Hydrogen Dream
Hydrogen is a transmitter of energy, not a source:
– Must use fossil fuel (creating CO2 ) or high
temperature reactors or solar or electrical power to
create H2 -- needs research
– Need fuel cell technology improvement (current
$3000/kw vs $30/kw for a gas engine).
– Currently, $35,000 for an automotive fuel cell
– Fuel cells combine 2H2 with O2 to make 2H2O.
– Yet fuel cells are 60% efficient compared to 22% for
gas and 45% for a diesel engine.
– Catalysts in fuel cells are expensive and can be
poisoned by impurities.
California Hydrogen Dreaming
– Need to establish a distribution system on as large a
scale as for gasoline
– California is establishing a Hydrogen highway of 200
stations for about $100 million
– Current cost of hydrogen is 4 times that of gasoline
– Compressed hydrogen tank has a range of only 200
miles (50 for Arnold’s Hummer demo)
– H2 will probably be stored in a smaller volume
molecule like NaBH4
– Won’t be practical for 30 years
– Physics Today "The Hydrogen Economy"
Possibility of New Unforseen
Energy Solutions
100 years of technology discoveries is
unpredictable.
In the last century we created:
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Autos, petroleum industry, highway system
Aircraft
Nuclear Age (E=mc²)
Electronics age: TV, computers, cell phones
Biological Age Starting: DNA, Genomics
Medical diagnosis and care
Crop improvements
Industrialization of farming
Satellites
Atom smashers, astrophysics, cosmology