Journal of Earthquake Engineering (2011) SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR SOIL-STRUCTURE INTERACTION PHENOMENON USING STOCHASTIC APPROACH M. Moghaddasi†*, M. Cubrinovski1, S. Pampanin1, J.G. Chase2, A. Carr1 1 Department of Civil and Natural Resources Engineering, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand 2 Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand ABSTRACT A significant contribution to the seismic design procedure including soil-structure interaction (SSI) is a complete understanding of the scenarios causing detrimental SSI effects. In that regard, this paper analyses several realistic SSI scenarios in a systematic fashion to define the correlation between soil, structural, and system parameters and SSI effects on the structural response. In the analyses, a soil-shallow foundation-structure model that satisfies various requirements suggested by design building codes is utilized. The soil stratum is assumed to be equivalent linear and the superstructure is considered to behave nonlinearly. Parameters of the model are defined randomly via a rigorous Monte Carlo simulation while constraining the process to generate realistic models. These randomly generated models are then subjected to a suite of recorded earthquake ground motions with different characteristics. Specifically, 1.36 million nonlinear time-history simulations are run covering realistic variations and combinations of soil, structure and earthquake ground motions. From the results, key parameters whose variation significantly affects structural response due to SSI are identified. The critical range of variation of these parameters resulting in a detrimental SSI effects is also depicted in a comprehensive statistical presentation. The comprehensive representation of the critical parameters provides a well-defined basis for incorporation of SSI in a seismic design procedure. † Address correspondence to Masoud Moghaddasi, Department of Civil and Natural Resources Engineering, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch 8140, New Zealand Email: masoud.moghaddasi@gmail.com 1|Page Sensitivity Analysis for Soil-Structure Systems 1 INTRODUCTION It has been shown in the accompanying paper (Moghaddasi, Cubrinovski et al. 2011) that structural response of a combined soil-structure system is strongly affected by the impact of uncertainty in soil and structural parameters accompanied with the inherent randomness of the input ground motion. Also indicated is that soil-structure interaction (SSI) effects can only be safely ignored with 70% confidence, respecting the existence of 30% risk of having amplification in the structural response due to foundation flexibility. Considering the existing risk of amplification in the structural response gives the impression that for critical scenarios, SSI effects has to be taken into account in the design procedure. However, significant variation in the structural response makes the identification of the critical scenarios a challenging task. A considerable step towards identification of those critical scenarios is to: (i) define the correlation between different parameters and the observed variation in demand modification factors; and (ii) to comprehensively characterize and quantify the scenarios causing either amplification or reduction in the structural response. In that regard, Veletsos and Nair (1975) and Bielak (1975) have shown that the difference between seismically induced response of a fixed-base and flexible-base system is strongly affected by structural aspect ratio, soil Poison’s ratio, soil hysteretic damping ratio, a dimensionless parameter expressing the relative stiffness of foundation medium and the structure, and a dimensionless parameter representing soil-to-structure mass. A more comprehensive investigation of the effects of these parameters on the seismic structural nonlinear response has been carried out later by Ciampoli and Pinto (1995). They concluded that structural nonlinear demand does not show any systematic dependencies on the parameters regulating SSI phenomena and it is statistically lower in the case of flexible structures. Following those studies and based on the available strong motion data of a comprehensive database, it has been concluded that ratio of structure-to-soil stiffens has the 2|Page Sensitivity Analysis for Soil-Structure Systems greatest influence on the seismic structural demand of a soil-structure system (Stewart, Fenves et al. 1999; Stewart, Seed et al. 1999). Also, it has been founded that structural aspect ratio, foundation embedment and flexibility are the other parameters with significant effect on inertial interaction. Finally, based on the framework of dimensional analysis, Zhang and Tang (Zhang and Tang 2009) have shown that SSI effects are highly dependent on the structure-to-pulse frequency, the foundation-to-structure stiffness ratio, foundation damping ratio. They also presented certain limits for these controlling parameters to distinguish whether or not SSI effects will be significant. Respecting all the previous studies, it is believed that the most rational way to identify the critical SSI scenarios is to make use of a probabilistic approach. In that regard, the results of a comprehensive probabilistic simulation explained with details in the accompanied paper and also summarised herein are used to: (i) define the correlation and dependency between structural seismic demand modification factors and model parameters; (ii) identify the key model parameters having a significant effect on the structural seismic demand; (iii) present an affection trend of the effective model parameters on the structural seismic demand; and finally (iv) quantify the critical range of variation of the effective model parameters causing SSI scenarios with the amplification effects on the structural response. This performed probabilistic analysis is a critically important step towards understanding and reliably characterizing complex problem of soil-structure interaction. It also is important to note that the presented outcomes are limited to a SDOF system, and it does not consider the extreme conditions such as those imposed by very soft (liquefiable) soils or near-fault effects on the ground motion. 3|Page Sensitivity Analysis for Soil-Structure Systems 2 METHODOLOGY AND MONTE CARLO SIMULATION 2.1 Outlines of the Procedure for the Probabilistic Study A Monte Carlo technique was used to study sensitivity of inelastic structural seismic demands of an established rheological soil-shallow foundation-structure (SFS) system to different system parameters. Two measures of structural seismic demand are considered: (i) structural distortion demand (๐ข) representing the horizontal displacement of the superstructure relative to the foundation; and (ii) structural total displacement (๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ ) representing the summation of structural distortion and structural lateral displacement due to foundation horizontal motion and rocking. A large number of nonlinear time-history simulations were run over models with randomly selected parameters using a suite of scaled recorded ground motions. Parameters of these systems were systematically defined by a random process carefully ensuring to satisfy the requirements of realistic models and also cover a common period range in the design spectrum. The period range of 0.2, 0.3 … 1.8 s was considered to: (i) represent the fixed-base (FB) superstructures with total height of 3 − 30 m and (ii) satisfy the period-height relationship adopted in New Zealand Standard (NZS1170.5 2004). For each considered period (TFB), 1000 SFS models were generated by assembling the randomly defined parameters for the SFS system and using commonly accepted relationships between various model parameters. The number 1000 was chosen with the intention to: (i) give the best fit statistical distribution for the randomly selected parameters and (ii) increase the confidence level of the Monte-Carlo simulation compared to the exact expected solution (Fishman 1996). The procedure adopted in defining the parameters is discussed with more details in (Moghaddasi, Cubrinovski et al. 2011). All the nonlinear time-history simulations were carried out using a FEM code “Ruaumoko 2D” (Carr 2009). 4|Page Sensitivity Analysis for Soil-Structure Systems 2.2 Dynamic Soil-Foundation-Structure Model The interacting soil-structure system investigated in this study is constituted from a rheological soil-foundation element and a superstructure (Figure 1), following the substructure technique. The structure is modelled as a yielding single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) system by the force-deflection behaviour of Takeda type (elastoplastic with strain hardening and stiffness degradation) with 5% post-yield stiffness and parameters of ๐พ = 0.3 and ๐ฟ = 0.2 (๐พ and ๐ฟ are defined in Figure 1). This SDOF representation is an approximate model of a multi-story building vibrating in its fundamental natural mode. The considered SDOF structure is assumed to have the same period and viscous damping coefficient as those of the corresponding FB system and is characterized by height (โ๐๐๐ ), mass (๐๐ ๐ก๐ ), lateral stiffness (๐๐ ๐ก๐ ), and damping (๐๐ ๐ก๐ ). The soil-foundation element was modelled by a lumped-parameter model representing a rigid circular footing resting on the soil surface and having a perfect bond to the soil. Moreover, the foundation was assumed to have no mass and mass moment of inertia about the horizontal axis. For evaluating the soil dynamic impedances incorporating soil nonlinearity, the frequency-independent coefficients of a rheological Cone model (Wolf 1994) was modified using the conventional equivalent linear method (Seed and Idriss 1970). To avoid more complication in time-domain analysis, soil material damping was assumed to be viscous type instead of hysteresis. In the presented model, the horizontal degree of freedom and the rocking degree of freedom are considered as representatives of translational and rotational motions of foundation respectively, and the effect of vertical and tortional motions are ignored. Details about the adopted soil-foundation element can be found in (Moghaddasi, Cubrinovski et al. 2011). 5|Page Sensitivity Analysis for Soil-Structure Systems 2.3 Uncertainty in System Parameters and Randomness in Ground Motions In seismic analysis, there are two recognized principal sources of uncertainty which need to be addressed: (i) model parameters and (ii) input ground motion, typically categorized as epistemic and aleatory uncertainties respectively. In this research, both types of uncertainties are covered. A brief overview of the stochastic selection process is presented here, but for more detailed information the interested reader is referred to (Moghaddasi, Cubrinovski et al. 2011). 2.3.1 Selection of uncertain system parameters All soil parameters defining the soil-foundation element were considered as uncertain parameters. Initial soil shear wave velocity ((๐๐ )0), shear wave velocity degradation ratio ((๐๐ )⁄(๐๐ )0 ), where (๐๐ ) represents the degraded shear wave velocity, soil mass density (๐), and Poisson’s ratio (๐), were defined as independent parameters; for each of them, a realistic range was defined first, and then 1000 uniformly distributed values were assigned to that range. Randomly varying structural parameters include: structural effective height (โ๐๐๐ ), foundation radius (๐), and structural mass (๐๐ ๐ก๐ ). Depending on these randomly generated parameters, the values for the structural lateral stiffness (๐๐ ๐ก๐ ), and structural damping (๐๐ ๐ก๐ ) were then calculated. To achieve realistic SFS models, the selection of the introduced structural parameters was constrained by commonly accepted relationship either for the superstructure or for the whole SFS system. 2.3.2 Selection of ground motions Forty different large magnitude-small distance ground motions recorded on stiff/soft soil (type ๐ถ and ๐ท based on USGS classification) were used as input motions in the simulations. This number was chosen to reduce the variance in the response due to record-to-record 6|Page Sensitivity Analysis for Soil-Structure Systems variability and obtain an estimate of median response within a factor of ±0.1 with 95% confidence (Shome, Cornell et al. 1998). The records were selected in such a way to satisfy the constrains of: (i) the magnitude in the range of 6.5 − 7.5, (ii) the closest distance to fault rupture in the range of 15 − 40 km, and (iii) the peak ground acceleration (PGA) greater than 0.1๐. The selected records were then scaled to have reasonably distributed PGAs within the range of 0.3 − 0.8๐, assuming that a nonlinear behaviour of the superstructure will be caused by those levels of intensity. Respecting rigorous scaling criteria and recommendations in NZS 1170.5, all scaling factors were chosen to be less than 3.0. 3 RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS 3.1 Correlation between Model Parameters and SSI Effects To investigate the possible correlation and dependency between structural seismic demand modification factors (i.e., ๐ข๐๐น๐ ⁄๐ข๐น๐ต , and (๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ )๐๐น๐ /(๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ )๐น๐ต ) and individual random parameters, the variation in the demand modification factors were examined as a function of: ๏ท soil parameters: ๐, ๐, (๐๐ )0, and ๐๐ /(๐๐ )0 ๏ท structural parameters: โ๐๐๐ , ๐, ๐๐ ๐ก๐ , and โ๐๐๐ ⁄๐ ๏ท soil-structure system parameters: ๐๐ ๐ก๐ ⁄๐ ๐ 3 , ๐ฟ = ๐๐ ๐ก๐ ⁄๐ ๐๐ 2 โ๐๐๐ , ๐ = โ๐๐๐ ⁄๐๐ ๐๐น๐ต (โ๐๐๐ ⁄๐) 0.25 , and ๐ = ๐๐ ๐๐น๐ต ⁄โ๐๐๐ for all considered groups of models categorized based on ๐๐น๐ต . In that attempt, the possibility of having either linear or nonlinear correlation is investigated. Form the considered parameters, โ๐๐๐ ⁄๐ represents structural aspect ratio. Clearly, this parameter is not a complete parameter in terms of describing both soil and structural characteristics. However, it is a geometric parameter of immediate engineering significance. ๐๐ ๐ก๐ ⁄๐ ๐ 3 and ๐ฟ are measures of structure-to-soil mass ratio, and ๐ is a representative of structure-to-soil stiffness ratio. Finally, the combined effect of ๐ and โ๐๐๐ ⁄๐ is presented in parameter ๐. 7|Page Sensitivity Analysis for Soil-Structure Systems 3.1.1 Linear correlations The existing linear dependency of the demand modification factors to the considered parameters is presented through Pearson correlation coefficient. Pearson correlation (๐) coefficient is obtained by dividing the covariance of two variables by product of their standard deviations. Assuming ๐ is the calculated structural seismic demand with mean and standard deviation values of ๐๐ and ๐๐ , and ๐ is the model parameter with mean and standard deviation values of ๐๐ and ๐๐ , the Pearson correlation coefficient between these two random variables is defined as: ๐(๐, ๐) = ๐ถ๐๐(๐,๐) ๐๐ ๐๐ = ๐ธ[(๐−๐๐ )(๐−๐๐ )] ๐๐ ๐๐ (1) where E is the expected value operator and COV means covariance. The Pearson correlation is +1 in a perfect increasing (positive) linear relationship, is −1 in the case of a perfect decreasing (negative) linear relationship, and approaches zero when less of a relation between variables is expected. It gives some values in between −1 and +1 in all the other cases, indicating the degrees of linear dependence between the variables. However, it is important to note that if the variables are independent, Pearson correlation coefficient is zero, but the converse is not always true (Dowdy and Wearden 1983). To present the linear correlation between structural seismic demand modification factors and the considered model parameters considering all possible scenarios, Figure 2 shows the correlation coefficients for all ๐๐น๐ต values. As illustrated in Figure 2(a)-(c), from all considered soil, structural, and system parameters only (๐๐ )0 , ๐๐ /(๐๐ )0 , ๐ and ๐ have more pronounced linear correlation with structural distortion demand modification factors (i.e., ๐ > 0.5 ๐๐ ๐ < −0.5). Also, note that the existing linear correlation is slightly higher for structures with longer periods; however, the difference is not that significant. Considering the type of correlation (positive or negative) gives the impression that structural distortion 8|Page Sensitivity Analysis for Soil-Structure Systems demand modification factor is reduced when: (i) initial shear wave velocity decreases; (ii) larger degradation in shear wave velocity occurs; (iii) expected value of ๐ increases; and (iv) expected values of ๐ decreases. When structural total displacement is considered as seismic demand [Figure 2(d)-(f)], except for stiff structures (๐๐น๐ต ≤ 0.6 s), no significant linear correlation can be distinguished for almost all model parameters. When stiff structures are considered, ๐ and ๐ can show a small linear correlation. 3.1.2 Nonlinear correlations To examine the possibility of having nonlinear correlation and dependency between the demand modification factors and soil, structural, and system parameters, noisiness graphs showing data directionality are considered. In these graphs, the demand modification factors for each selected groups of models are presented based on the variation of a certain model parameter. Examining all possible scenarios, it has been implied that the measured structural seismic demand modification factors only have an obvious nonlinear relationship and dependency with the parameters of ๐ and ๐; and the graphs are quite noisy for all the other cases. It implicitly concludes that parameters showing almost no linear correlation with the demand modification factors also have no distinguishable nonlinear dependency. Avoiding the presentation of any unnecessary information, the noisiness graphs showing the variation of ๐ข๐๐น๐ ⁄๐ข๐น๐ต and (๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ )๐๐น๐ /(๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ )๐น๐ต based on the variation of ๐ and ๐ are only illustrated and discussed in the following. Figure 3 shows the relationship between ๐ข๐๐น๐ ⁄๐ข๐น๐ต and ๐ for different ๐๐น๐ต values; also shown in this figure is the previously presented Pearson correlation coefficient. Clearly, there is a strong directionality in the presented data. However, considering the Pearson correlation coefficients located in the range of 0.5 − 0.7 gives the coarse impression that the existing dependency might be assumed as a linear relationship. This strong directionality is also recognised in the case of relation between 9|Page Sensitivity Analysis for Soil-Structure Systems structural distortion demand modification factor and ๐ (Figure 4). But in this case, the Pearson correlation coefficients do not indicate any strong linear relationship. If structural total displacement demand modification factors are considered, a nonlinear correlation between (๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ )๐๐น๐ /(๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ )๐น๐ต and ๐ can only be distinguished if ๐ ≤ 0.5 and after that point, the dependency will vanish so quickly (Figure 5). However, if the correlation between (๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ )๐๐น๐ /(๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ )๐น๐ต and ๐ is examined, a strong nonlinear relationship exists, even though, no linear correlation has been found (Figure 6). In summary, on the basis of the presented results, it can be concluded that structural inelastic demand does not show a systematic dependency on the soil-structure model parameters except for (๐๐ )0 , ๐๐ /(๐๐ )0 , ๐ and ๐. 3.2 Variation of Structural Seismic Demand due to change in the Effective Model Parameters To quantify the variation of structural seismic demand due to change in the recognised effective model parameters, a robust statistical presentation was adopted. In that regard, the variation in ๐ข๐๐น๐ ⁄๐ข๐น๐ต , (๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ )๐๐น๐ /(๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ )๐น๐ต were examined as a function of (๐๐ )0 , ๐๐ ⁄(๐๐ )0 , ๐, and ๐ considering all the examined scenarios together, regardless of the initial grouping based on ๐๐น๐ต . This approach is acceptable since the observed correlation between the demand modification factors and the selected parameters are almost similar through all the period values (i.e., the effects of model parameter variation on the structural seismic demand modification factors are independent of the ๐๐น๐ต values). In order to carry out this quantification, the existing dependency of the demand modification factors to the considered parameters were presented through 5๐กโ , 50๐กโ , 75๐กโ , and 95๐กโ percentile lines representing different levels of likelihood. The distance between 5๐กโ and 95๐กโ percentile boundary lines shows the possible variation in the response. The larger this distance is, the higher variation is expected. The line assigned to the 50๐กโ percentile values shows the trend of the response in 10 | P a g e Sensitivity Analysis for Soil-Structure Systems median terms, and the boundary lines assigned to 75๐กโ , and 95๐กโ percentile values show the acceptable and high confidence levels. Figure 7 illustrates the sensitivity of ๐ข๐๐น๐ ⁄๐ข๐น๐ต to the controlling parameters. Clearly, when 50% is considered as the expected confidence level, smaller values of (๐๐ )0 , ๐๐ /(๐๐ )0, and ๐ or larger values of ๐ can result in smaller structural distortion demand modification factors (or higher reduction in the structural distortion demand). As the values of (๐๐ )0 , ๐๐ / (๐๐ )0, and ๐ increase or the values of ๐ decrease, the demand modification factor approaches to unity. These observed trends are justified for the case of (๐๐ )0, ๐ and ๐ (note that ๐ and ๐ are highly influenced by (๐๐ )0 ), as an increase in the shear wave velocity can result in stiffer foundation condition. Having the foundation stiffer makes the SFS system to show more similar response to the corresponding fixed-base condition and consequently make ๐ข๐๐น๐ ⁄๐ข๐น๐ต to approach to unity. If soil shear wave velocity degradation is considered, larger values of ๐๐ /(๐๐ )0 correspond to less degradation and as a result less damping is added into the soilstructure system. Thus, larger values of ๐๐ /(๐๐ )0 will cause the SFS system to behave in a more similar way as the corresponding fixed-base condition. It is also shown in Figure 7 that if smaller values of the effective parameters are considered, larger variations in the demand modification factors is expected and as the values of the parameters increase, the variation in the ratio of ๐ข๐๐น๐ ⁄๐ข๐น๐ต reduces significantly. Therefore, more attention in a design procedure has to be considered if that range of parameters is encountered. Also noted in this figure is that the sensitivity of the demand modification factors to the change of (๐๐ )0, ๐๐ /(๐๐ )0 and ๐ will be significantly reduced considering 75๐กโ and 95๐กโ percentile values. It implicitly indicates that the maximum expected modification in structural distortion demand is independent of the shear wave velocity and shear wave velocity degradation ratio for acceptable and high confidence levels. It also means that, the highest modification in the structural distortion demand may occur for 11 | P a g e Sensitivity Analysis for Soil-Structure Systems any value of (๐๐ )0, ๐๐ /(๐๐ )0 and ๐ , even though different probabilities has to be considered. This conclusion is not valid for the case of ๐ noting when the value of ๐ increases, structural distortion demand modification factor decreases even for high levels of confidence levels. Sensitivity of (๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ )๐๐น๐ /(๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ )๐น๐ต to the considered controlling parameters is shown in Figure 8. For the 50๐กโ percentile values, the ratio of (๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ )๐๐น๐ /(๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ )๐น๐ต is only weakly sensitive to the considered parameters; meaning, in median terms, structural total displacement demand is not influenced by the change of any model parameters. Furthermore, median values are slightly higher than unity implying that SSI effects on structural total displacement is always increasing and it has to be taken into account in a design procedure. When higher levels of confidence are considered, different interpretations appear. For an increase in the value of (๐๐ )0 , ๐๐ /(๐๐ )0, and ๐, the ratio of (๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ )๐๐น๐ /(๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ )๐น๐ต tends to decrease sharply while approaching to unity. It indirectly implies that the variation in the structural total displacement demand modification factor decreases along with the reduction in the possibility of having a large modification in the seismic demand. In contrast, when ๐ increases the observed variation in the ratio of (๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ )๐๐น๐ /(๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ )๐น๐ต increases and consequently the expected demand modification factor increase. 3.3 Risk Evaluation for SSI Based on Variation in Model Parameters To evaluate the risk of detrimental SSI effects on structural seismic demand based on the variation in the effective model parameters, two main aspects are analysed: (i) the probability of having amplification in the demand of the SFS system as compared to the demand of the corresponding FB structure; and (ii) the level of increase in the demand due to SSI consideration. For this purpose, three amplification levels (A.L.) were taken into account as: 1.0, 1.1, and 1.2, and the probability of having scenarios with the demand modification factor higher than each level were calculated. For each considered A.L., the corresponding median values of the percentage increase in the response (Med[P.I.]) were also evaluated. 12 | P a g e Sensitivity Analysis for Soil-Structure Systems The probability of having amplification in the structural distortion demand (Pr[๐ข๐๐น๐ ⁄๐ข๐น๐ต > ๐ด. ๐ฟ.]) is shown in Figure 9 for the variation in (๐๐ )0 , ๐๐ /(๐๐ )0 , ๐, and ๐. The corresponding median percentage increases are presented in Figure 10. When amplification level is considered to be 1.0, the probability of ๐ข๐๐น๐ ⁄๐ข๐น๐ต > 1.0 increases as a result of an increase in the value of (๐๐ )0 , ๐๐ ⁄(๐๐ )0, and ๐. Note that this increase is more significant in the case of ๐. In contrast to the above mentioned, an increase in the value of ๐ will significantly reduce the probability of amplification in the structural distortion demand. From the observed trends, it can be concluded that the probability of having SSI with detrimental effects is higher when structures are located on stiffer soils, and also when smaller shear wave velocity degradation is expected. The probability of increase in the structural distortion demand due to SSI ranges between 15% − 50% for (๐๐ )0 , 10% − 50% for ๐๐ ⁄(๐๐ )0, 10% − 90% for ๐ and 1% − 50% for ๐. It is important to note that even though the probability of having detrimental SSI effects increases due to an increase in values of (๐๐ )0 , ๐๐ ⁄(๐๐ )0 , and ๐, the corresponding values for median percentage increase decrease. It means that a higher amplification in structural response due to SSI is expected when structures are located on softer soils and obviously when less degradation is expected. Values of the median percentage increase are in the range of 1% − 10% for (๐๐ )0 , 1% − 5% for ๐๐ ⁄(๐๐ )0, 5 − 20% for ๐, and 1-10% for ๐. Respecting these values, gives the impression that, in median terms, SSI effects on structural distortion demand can be limited to 20%. Provided that higher amplification levels are considered (i.e., A.L.=1.1 or A.L.=1.2), the probability of amplification in the demand will be considerably reduced for all parameters. Specifically, when ๐ > 20 and ๐ > 1.0 any detrimental effect of SSI on structural distortion demand may be practically ignored. Furthermore, by taking the median values of percentage increase into account, it can be concluded that the amplification in the 13 | P a g e Sensitivity Analysis for Soil-Structure Systems structural distortion demand caused by SSI effects is limited to 30% for all the effective model parameters. When structural total displacement is considered as the structural seismic demand and A.L. is assumed to be unity, an increase in the value of all considered parameters results in an increase in the probability of amplification (Figure 11). Thus, it can be concluded that detrimental SSI effects on structural total displacement are more probable to occur when stiffer soils are considered. The observed probability values are as 65% − 75% for (๐๐ )0 , 60% − 75% for ๐๐ ⁄(๐๐ )0, 55% − 75% for ๐, and 60% − 90% for ๐. In terms of the corresponding median values of percentage increase, a reduction is expected when the values of (๐๐ )0 , ๐๐ ⁄(๐๐ )0, and ๐ increase. In contrast, an increase in the value of ๐ will result in higher median values of percentage increase. This conclusion is sensible since the rigid body motion components originating from the soil deformation are greater when softer soils are considered. The observed median values of percentage increase are as 5% − 35% for (๐๐ )0, 5% − 20% for ๐๐ ⁄(๐๐ )0, 5% − 75% for ๐, and 1-30% for ๐. The observed high probabilities of amplification in the structural total displacement accompanied with the high values of median percentage increase strongly emphasize that the effect of SSI on the structural total displacement cannot be simply ignored in a design procedure. If higher levels of amplification are considered (i.e., A.L.=1.1 or A.L.=1.2), an increase in the values of (๐๐ )0 , ๐๐ ⁄(๐๐ )0 , or ๐ equals to having smaller probability values, while an increase in the value of ๐ still result in an increase in the probability values. For the case of (๐๐ )0 , ๐๐ ⁄(๐๐ )0 , or ๐, the amplification in the system drift demand due to SSI effects is limited to 50% while 100% amplification in demand might be expected for ๐. 14 | P a g e Sensitivity Analysis for Soil-Structure Systems 4 CONCLUSIONS 1. From all considered soil, structural, and system parameters only (๐๐ )0 , ๐๐ /(๐๐ )0 , ๐ and ๐ have a pronounced linear correlation with structural distortion demand. However, no significant linear correlation is noticeable between these parameters and system drift demand. 2. In median terms (50% is considered as the expected confidence level), any increase in the values of (๐๐ )0 , ๐๐ /(๐๐ )0, or ๐ results in an increase in the structural distortion demand modification factor (uSFS /uFB ), whereas, an increase in the value of ๐ reduces the ratio of ๐ข๐๐น๐ ⁄๐ข๐น๐ต significantly. However, when higher confidence levels are taken account, the sensitivity of the demand modification factors to the change of the parameters will be reduced. 3. In median terms (50% is considered as the expected confidence level), structural total displacement demand modification factor (drSFS /drFB ) is only weakly sensitive to the considered parameters. But, when higher levels of confidence are considered, different interpretations appear. For an increase in the value of (Vs )0 , Vs /(Vs )0, and σ, the ratio of drSFS /drFB tends to decrease very sharply, in contrast, when the value of φ increases, drSFS /drFB also increases. 4. When amplification level of unity is considered, an increase in the value of (๐๐ )0 , ๐๐ ⁄(๐๐ )0 , or ๐ may result in an increase in the probability of amplification in the structural distortion demand, and this increase is much more significant for the case of ๐. However, an increase in the value of ๐ will significantly reduce that probability. If higher amplification levels are considered, the probability of amplification in the demand will be considerably reduced for all parameters. Specifically, when ๐ > 20 and ๐ > 1.0 any detrimental effect of SSI on the structural distortion may be practically ignored. 15 | P a g e Sensitivity Analysis for Soil-Structure Systems 5. When structural total displacement is considered as the structural seismic demand and amplification level is assumed to be unity, an increase in the value of each considered parameter results in an increase in the probability of amplification; while for higher levels of amplification, an increase in the values of (๐๐ )0 , ๐๐ ⁄(๐๐ )0 , or ๐ equals to having smaller probability values, and an increase in the value of ๐ still result in an increase in the probability values. 16 | P a g e Journal of Earthquake Engineering (2011) Paper Title: Sensitivity Analysis for Soil-Structure Interaction Phenomenon using Stochastic Approach Authors: Moghaddasi, Cubrinovski, Pampanin, Chase, Carr Figure 1. Soil-shallow foundation-structure model for horizontal and rocking foundation motions. 17 | P a g e Journal of Earthquake Engineering (2011) Paper Title: Sensitivity Analysis for Soil-Structure Interaction Phenomenon using Stochastic Approach Authors: Moghaddasi, Cubrinovski, Pampanin, Chase, Carr 1 1 TKDS /(u ) ,Y) TKDS str FB 0.5 str SFS 0 -0.5 -1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 (a) 1 T ๏ฒ((u ) ๏ฒ(u SFS FB /u ,Y) 0.5 ๏ฒ (Vs)0 ๏ฎ V /(V ) s -0.5 s 0 -1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 (d) FB m 0 -0.5 r h /r 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 1 T 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 0.5 str FB eff str SFS FB /u ,Y) SFS ๏ฒ(u -1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 (b) 1 T 0 -0.5 -1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 (e) FB FB 1 1 TKDS 0.5 ๏ฒ((u ) str SFS str FB FB ๏ค ๏ช ๏ณ /(u ) ,Y) str 0 -0.5 -1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 TKDS 3 m /๏ฒr 0.5 /u ,Y) 1 T TKDS str /(u ) ,Y) eff ๏ฒ((u ) h 0.5 SFS 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 1 TKDS ๏ฒ(u 1 T FB 1 (c) 0 1 T FB 0 -0.5 -1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 (f) FB Figure 2. Pearson correlation coefficients: (a-c) correlation between considered parameters and structural distortion demand modification factors; (d-f) correlation between considered parameters and structural total displacement demand modification factors. 18 | P a g e uSFS ⁄uFB Journal of Earthquake Engineering (2011) Paper Title: Sensitivity Analysis for Soil-Structure Interaction Phenomenon using Stochastic Approach Authors: Moghaddasi, Cubrinovski, Pampanin, Chase, Carr ๐ Figure 3. Correlation and dependence between structural distortion demand and ๐ = 0.25 โ๐๐๐ ⁄๐๐ ๐๐น๐ต (โ๐๐๐ ⁄๐) . 19 | P a g e uSFS⁄uFB Journal of Earthquake Engineering (2011) Paper Title: Sensitivity Analysis for Soil-Structure Interaction Phenomenon using Stochastic Approach Authors: Moghaddasi, Cubrinovski, Pampanin, Chase, Carr ๐ Figure 4. Correlation and dependence between structural distortion demand and ๐ = ๐๐ ๐๐น๐ต ⁄โ๐๐๐ . 20 | P a g e (u๐ ๐ก๐ )SFS ⁄(u๐ ๐ก๐ )FB Journal of Earthquake Engineering (2011) Paper Title: Sensitivity Analysis for Soil-Structure Interaction Phenomenon using Stochastic Approach Authors: Moghaddasi, Cubrinovski, Pampanin, Chase, Carr ๐ Figure 5. Correlation and dependence between structural total displacement demand and ๐ = 0.25 โ๐๐๐ ⁄๐๐ ๐๐น๐ต (โ๐๐๐ ⁄๐) . 21 | P a g e (u๐ ๐ก๐ )SFS ⁄(u๐ ๐ก๐ )FB Journal of Earthquake Engineering (2011) Paper Title: Sensitivity Analysis for Soil-Structure Interaction Phenomenon using Stochastic Approach Authors: Moghaddasi, Cubrinovski, Pampanin, Chase, Carr ๐ Figure 6. Correlation and dependence between structural total displacement demand and ๐ = ๐๐ ๐๐น๐ต ⁄โ๐๐๐ . 22 | P a g e Journal of Earthquake Engineering (2011) Paper Title: Sensitivity Analysis for Soil-Structure Interaction Phenomenon using Stochastic Approach Authors: Moghaddasi, Cubrinovski, Pampanin, Chase, Carr 1.5 1.5 TKDS TKDS 1 u SFS /u FB uSFS/uFB 1 0.5 0 5th Prct. 50th Prct. 75th Prct. 95th Prct. 100 (a) 200 (Vs)0 (s) 300 0.5 0 0.1 400 1.5 0.4 0.5 Vs/(Vs)0 0.6 0.7 TKDS /u SFS u SFS /u FB 1 FB 1 u 0.3 1.5 TKDS 0.5 0 0 (c) 0.2 (b) 0.5 1 ๏ช 1.5 2 0.5 0 0 2.5 (d) 5 10 15 ๏ณ 20 25 30 35 Figure 7. Sensitivity of structural distortion demand to: (a) initial shear wave velocity; (b) soil 0.25 shear wave velocity degradation ratio; (c) ๐ = โ๐๐๐ ⁄๐๐ ๐๐น๐ต (โ๐๐๐ ⁄๐) ; (d) ๐ = ๐๐ ๐๐น๐ต ⁄โ๐๐๐ . 23 | P a g e Journal of Earthquake Engineering (2011) Paper Title: Sensitivity Analysis for Soil-Structure Interaction Phenomenon using Stochastic Approach Authors: Moghaddasi, Cubrinovski, Pampanin, Chase, Carr 2.5 2.5 TKDS TKDS 2 1.5 1.5 uSFS/uFB (u ) str SFS /(u ) str FB 2 1 5th Prct. 50th Prct. 75th Prct. 95th Prct. 0.5 0 100 (a) 200 (Vs)0 (s) 300 1 0.5 0 0.1 400 TKDS 0.6 0.7 TKDS str FB /(u ) str FB 1.5 str SFS 1 (u ) /(u ) 0.4 0.5 Vs/(Vs)0 2 1.5 str SFS (u ) 0.3 2.5 2 0.5 (c) 0.2 (b) 2.5 0 5th Prct. 50th Prct. 75th Prct. 95th Prct. 1 0.5 0 0.5 1 ๏ช 1.5 2 0 2.5 (d) 0 5 10 15 ๏ณ 20 25 30 35 Figure 8. Sensitivity of system drift demand to:(a) initial shear wave velocity; (b) soil shear 0.25 wave velocity degradation ratio; (c) ๐ = โ๐๐๐ ⁄๐๐ ๐๐น๐ต (โ๐๐๐ ⁄๐) ; (d) ๐ = ๐๐ ๐๐น๐ต ⁄โ๐๐๐ . 24 | P a g e Journal of Earthquake Engineering (2011) Paper Title: Sensitivity Analysis for Soil-Structure Interaction Phenomenon using Stochastic Approach Authors: Moghaddasi, Cubrinovski, Pampanin, Chase, Carr 100 100 40 20 80 80 FB 60 0 SFS SFS FB 60 Pr[u TKDS /u >A.L.] (%) A.L.=1.0 A.L.=1.1 A.L.=1.2 Pr[u /u >A.L.] (%) TKDS 75 150 (a) 225 300 (V ) (m/sec) 40 20 0 0.1 375 s 0 100 0.7 40 /u >A.L.] (%) TKDS 20 Pr[u FB 60 SFS FB /u >A.L.] (%) SFS Pr[u 0.6 s 0 TKDS (c) 0.3 0.4 0.5 Vs/(V ) (m/sec) 100 80 0 0.2 (a) 0 0.5 1 ๏ช 1.5 2 80 60 40 20 0 2.5 (d) 0 5 10 15 ๏ณ 20 25 30 35 Figure 9. Probability of amplification in structural distortion demand based on variation in: (a) initial shear wave velocity; (b) soil shear wave velocity degradation ratio; (c) ๐ = 0.25 โ๐๐๐ ⁄๐๐ ๐๐น๐ต (โ๐๐๐ ⁄๐) ; (d) ๐ = ๐๐ ๐๐น๐ต ⁄โ๐๐๐ . 25 | P a g e Journal of Earthquake Engineering (2011) Paper Title: Sensitivity Analysis for Soil-Structure Interaction Phenomenon using Stochastic Approach Authors: Moghaddasi, Cubrinovski, Pampanin, Chase, Carr 100 100 SFS /u >A.L. u FB 60 40 75 150 225 300 (Vs)0 (m/sec) 40 0 0.1 375 0.3 0.4 0.5 V /(V ) s 0.6 0.7 s 0 100 u SFS /u >A.L. u FB 80 Med [P.I.] (%) 80 Med [P.I.] (%) 0.2 (b) 100 60 40 20 (c) FB 20 (a) 0 0 /u >A.L. 60 20 0 SFS 80 Med [P.I.] (%) 80 Med [P.I.] (%) u A.L.=1.0 A.L.=1.1 A.L.=1.2 SFS /u >A.L. FB 60 40 20 0.5 1 ๏ช 1.5 2 0 0 2.5 (d) 5 10 15 ๏ณ 20 25 30 35 Figure 10. Median of percentage increase in structural distortion demand based on variation in: (a) initial shear wave velocity; (b) soil shear wave velocity degradation ratio; (c) ๐ = 0.25 โ๐๐๐ ⁄๐๐ ๐๐น๐ต (โ๐๐๐ ⁄๐) ; (d) ๐ = ๐๐ ๐๐น๐ต ⁄โ๐๐๐ . 26 | P a g e Journal of Earthquake Engineering (2011) Paper Title: Sensitivity Analysis for Soil-Structure Interaction Phenomenon using Stochastic Approach Authors: Moghaddasi, Cubrinovski, Pampanin, Chase, Carr 100 TKDS A.L.=1.0 A.L.=1.1 A.L.=1.2 str FB 60 str SFS 40 20 0 75 150 (a) 225 300 (V ) (m/sec) 20 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 V /(V ) s 0.6 0.7 s 0 /(u ) >A.L.] (%) 100 TKDS 80 str FB 60 str SFS 40 Pr[(u ) str FB /(u ) >A.L.] (%) str SFS Pr[(u ) 40 (b) 100 (c) 60 0 0.1 375 s 0 20 0 TKDS 80 Pr[(u ) Pr[(u ) str SFS str FB 80 /(u ) >A.L.] (%) /(u ) >A.L.] (%) 100 0 0.5 1 ๏ช 1.5 2 TKDS 80 60 40 20 0 2.5 (d) 0 5 10 15 ๏ณ 20 25 30 35 Figure 11. Probability of amplification in structural total displacement demand based on variation in: (a) initial shear wave velocity; (b) soil shear wave velocity degradation ratio; (c) 0.25 ๐ = โ๐๐๐ ⁄๐๐ ๐๐น๐ต (โ๐๐๐ ⁄๐) ; (d) ๐ = ๐๐ ๐๐น๐ต ⁄โ๐๐๐ . 27 | P a g e Journal of Earthquake Engineering (2011) Paper Title: Sensitivity Analysis for Soil-Structure Interaction Phenomenon using Stochastic Approach Authors: Moghaddasi, Cubrinovski, Pampanin, Chase, Carr 100 100 A.L.=1.0 A.L.=1.1 A.L.=1.2 str SFS /(u ) >A.L. (u ) str FB 60 40 75 150 225 300 (Vs)0 (m/sec) 40 0 0.1 375 0.3 0.4 0.5 V /(V ) s 0.6 0.7 s 0 100 (u ) str SFS /(u ) >A.L. (u ) str FB str SFS 80 Med [P.I.] (%) 80 Med [P.I.] (%) 0.2 (b) 100 60 40 20 (c) str FB 20 (a) 0 0 /(u ) >A.L. 60 20 0 str SFS 80 Med [P.I.] (%) 80 Med [P.I.] (%) (u ) /(u ) >A.L. str FB 60 40 20 0.5 1 ๏ช 1.5 2 0 0 2.5 (d) 5 10 15 ๏ณ 20 25 30 35 Figure 12. Median of percentage increase in structural total displacement demand based on variation in: (a) initial shear wave velocity; (b) soil shear wave velocity degradation ratio; (c) 0.25 ๐ = โ๐๐๐ ⁄๐๐ ๐๐น๐ต (โ๐๐๐ ⁄๐) ; (d) ๐ = ๐๐ ๐๐น๐ต ⁄โ๐๐๐ . 28 | P a g e Sensitivity Analysis for Soil-Structure Systems REFERENCES Bielak, J. (1975). "Dynamic behaviour of structures with embedded foundations." Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics 3(3): 259-174. Carr, A. (2009). Ruaumoko, Nonlinear FEM Computer Program. New Zealand, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Canterbury. Ciampoli, M. and P. E. Pinto (1995). "Effects of soil-structure interaction on inelastic seismic response of bridge piers." Journal of Structural Engineering 121(5): 806-814. Dowdy, S. and S. Wearden (1983). Statistics for Research, Wiley. Fishman, G. S. (1996). Monte Carlo: concepts, algorithms, and applications. New York, Springer. Moghaddasi, M., M. Cubrinovski, et al. (2011). 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