Volcanic Impact Study Group (VISG) Forum
25 September 2013
Auckland
Tom Wilson: University of Canterbury
Carol Stewart: Massey University
Volcanic Impacts Research Group: UC, Massey, GNS Science, UoA
Context – Ash Impacts
• Volcanic ash is the most likely volcanic hazard to affect the
most people during an explosive eruption
• Typically disruptive, rather than destructive
•
Although can potentially create a variety of unique impacts
• Wide range of potential ash sources and characteristics
makes it difficult to estimating what impacts will be…
• Thickness, grainsize, leachate, etc.
• Limited evidence base – compared to other perils
Lessons from 1995-96 Ruapehu
eruption
 Widespread and costly impacts to engineering lifelines:
$10-30 million (1995/96) from a small eruption
 Paton et al. 1998. Organisational Response to a Volcanic
Eruption. Disaster Prevention & Management 7 (1): 5-13
 Insufficient knowledge of volcanic hazard impact and
appropriate mitigation strategies within responding
organisations
 Insufficient access to required information further
exacerbating uncertainty for preparedness, response
and mitigation decision-making
 No agency had the required integrated capability for
this applied knowledge
 Disaster occurred in a complex multi-jurisdictional
setting which required well-established pre-existing
networks between information providers and
responders
So what was done about it?
 Acted as a catalyst for:
 Developing a greater evidence-base of volcanic impacts
to enhance preparedness and mitigation decision
making (particularly for ash fall)
 Enhance communication and coordination structures
between volcano scientists and stakeholders
 Volcanic Impact Study Group
Research Context – Ash Impact Research
•
•
•
Over the past 10-15 years the New Zealand research
group (and collaborators) have aimed to undertake a
sustained and systematic approach to volcanic impact
assessment
- critical infrastructure: electricity, water supplies,
wastewater, land and air transport,
telecommunications
- ash cleanup and disposal
- primary industries, including agriculture
- social impacts
- emergency management
Reconnaissance trips to impacted areas to bring
lessons home
Followed by laboratory testing of critical infrastructure
components...VAT Lab
Recon Trips: by volcano & year visited
Redoubt 1996; 2010
Eldfell (Heimaey) 2008
Shinmoedake
2011
Etna
2003
Sakurajima
2001
Pacaya
2010
Pinatubo
2007
Merapi
2006
Tungurahua
2005; 2010
Lapevi
2003-05
Ruapehu
1995-96
Puyehue Cordon-Caulle
2012
Hudson
2008
Chaiten
2009
Reconnaissance Trips
1) How did impacts unfold in real situations,
 what were main problems,
 what was resilient/tolerant (just as important)
 what mitigation actions were effective,
 previous preparedness,
 lessons learned, adaptive behaviours, etc
2) Trips conducted at various time intervals afterwards
3) Trips range from small scale (1 person), to larger multi-
disciplinary teams
4) Emphasis on collaborating with local authorities,
scientists, and utility managers
5) Development of standardised impact assessment
procedures
Consistent findings
 Unexpected. Exotic.
 Unexpected impacts.
Unexpected interdependencies.
 Ash was difficult and expensive
to clean up.
 Can we mitigate? Where do we
find information?
 “Wish we had planned for this…”
Poster Series 1: 2006-2010
 Single sectors
 Short, well summarised, authoritative reference posters
considered optimal
 Chop down long, boring reports
 Wide application
 BCP, CDEM exercises, international...
 Tongariro eruption
Volcanic Ash Testing Lab
 Identified some components/systems are
vulnerable, or might be vulnerable
 Laboratory testing



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Electricity – flashover
Water – floc/coag
Computers – damage & function loss
GenSets – filter fragility/replacement
Contaminated with
3mm ash
2012-13: Revision & Expansion
 EXISTING “SECTOR” POSTERS: Updated
and revised with an expanded knowledge
base
 Valuable interaction with each sector
2012-13: Revision & Expansion
 NEW CROSS-CUTTING POSTERS
 Buildings, GenSets/HVAC, Computers and Urban Clean Up
 Target knowledge gaps
 Seed funding from AELG  thesis research projects
 Common Design
 Consistent layout across all
posters
 Modernise
 Foster recognition
 Specialised
 Deliberately designed as
fact- and advice-rich
resources for a specialised
audience
 Minimise volcano jargon
 Sector specific terminology

Accurate & authentic trust
 Content - what to include?
 Sector specific
 Incisive reviews from
AELG members extremely
valuable
 Relies on pointing to wider
resources
 Ash impacts website
 IVHHN
 Development and
extension of networks
Review process...CAROL HELP!
 AELG
 Partner organisations used where needed e.g. BoP
Lifelines, CAA, Ministry of Health, ESR
 Number of cycles
 long and tedious, but worth it (we think...)