The Arctic Climate
Paquita Zuidema, RSMAS/MPO, MSC 118, March 2 2007

29 Aug 1980

First some pure observations…

Change in annual mean temperature ( ° C):
1956-2005

Global temperature anomalies in 2005 relative to 1951-1980

Changes of
Alaskan station temperatures (F),
1949-2004
[ from Alaska Climate
Research Center ]

[from G. Juday, UAF]

Record Arctic sea ice minima: 2002-
2005

29 Aug 1980

25 Aug 2005

6 Sep 2006

Submarinemeasured sea ice thickness

Age of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean: 1988-
2005

Cumulative volume changes of glaciers (ACIA,
2005)
North America Scandinavia Russia No. Hemis.

Extent of summer melt on Greenland

Satellite data tells us sea-level heights, since 1992 a rise of about 2 cm

spring
Increased
Spring
And
Summer
Cloudiness
1982-1999
AVHRR data
(Wang&Key, 2003) summer
Persistent springtime cloud cover may advance snowmelt onset date (e.g., modeling study of Zhang 1996) annual

Now some future model projections…

Permafrost (CCSM)
Sept. sea-ice (CCSM)
Sept. sea-ice (Observed)
(Holland,
Lawrence)

Projected changes of temperature: 2070-
2090

Projected changes of Arctic sea ice

IPCC models: Arctic sea ice coverage, 1950-
2100

IPCC models: Projected Arctic (60-90 ºN) change of surface air temperature relative to 1980-2000

Impact of
1 meter
(3 feet) sea level rise on FL

What are we doing about it (as scientists) ?

8 years of data from the North Slope of Alaska DOE/ARM site

SHEBA
Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic

Early May
~ 76N, 165 W

spring
Increased
Spring
And
Summer
Cloudiness
1982-1999
AVHRR data
(Wang&Key, 2003) summer
Persistent springtime cloud cover may advance snowmelt onset date (e.g., modeling study of Zhang 1996) annual

Surface-based Instrumentation: May 1-8 time series
-45 -20
35 GHz cloud radar ice cloud properties
-5 dBZ depolarization lidar-determined liquid cloud base
Microwave radiometerderived liquid water paths
1
1
2 3 4 day 5 6 7
4X daily soundings. Near-surface T ~ -20 C, inversion T ~-10 C
4 lidar cloud base 8 z
8
100 g/m^2
-30C -10C
8
6 km
4
2

May 4 Cloud Particle Imager data
…pristine ice particles from upper cloud
...super-cooled drizzle

J noon
= 60 o
Clouds decrease surface SW by
55 W m -2 ,increase LW by 49 W m -2
Surface albedo=0.86; most SW reflected back
Clouds warm the surface, relative to clear skies with same T&
T & RH, by time-mean 41 W m -2* (little impact at TOA)
• Can warm 1m of ice by 1.8 K/day, or melt 1 cm of 0C ice per day, barring any other mechanisms !

Great websites with real-time data, historical fotos: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/ http://nsidc.org
http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/glance http://nsidc.org/data/seaice-index/

Paquita Zuidema, RSMAS/MPO, MSC118, March 2 2007