Public Policy Forum V Cameron University October 28, 2010 Travis Narum Development Director 1 689.5 MW Operating or Under Construction McGrath Wind Farm 30 MW, Alberta Chin Chute Wind Farm 30 MW,Wind Alberta Velva Farm 12 MW, North Dakota Wind Farm Tatanka 180 MW, N & S Dakota Ripley Wind Farm 76 MW, Ontario EcoGrove Wind Farm 100.5 MW, Blue Canyon Wind Illinois Farm 74 MW, Oklahoma Red Hills Wind Farm 123 MW, Oklahoma 2 Abouse US Wind Farm Development 3 U.S. Wind Installations Source: American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) 4 20% Wind … What Does it Mean? Projected US Wind Growth 400 150 GW Shortfa ll 350 300 300GW 250 150GW 200 150 110GW 100 US Target: 20% Wind 60GW 50 18GW 0 2007 US wind @ global install growth rate of 9% 30GW 2010 2015 2020 2030 stry needs to scale to 1 turbine every 30 minutes 5 U.S. REMAINS GLOBAL LEADER IN WIND INSTALLATIONS The U.S. maintained its position as global leader in installed capacity in 2009, growing to over 35 GW after becoming the world leader in total wind capacity in 2008. Total global wind power capacity is now over 150,000 MW. 6 Abouse Wind Farm Development Driv 7 Rules of Thumb: Wind Economics Turbine Technology 1pt Capacity Factor = ~$50k/MW NPV CAPEX Turbine = 2/3 BOP = 1/3 Wind 1 mph = $150k/MW NPV One 1.5 MW turbine can power ~500 average size US homes One 1.5 MW turbine generates ~$1,000 in revenue per day (power + tax Power Price $1/MWh = ~$30k/MW NPV Tax Benefits Large Driver of Project NPV 8 Production Tax Credits Have Been Critical… 9 …to Bring a More Level Playing Field 10 Transmission Constraints Limit Development • Typically windy spots are not near population centers (load) • Transmission from wind projects to load can cost $100M • Free-rider problems and cost assignement issues can stall needed transmission • Cost allocation strategies or funded Super Grid ideas could help enable transmission build • Change paradigm from building transmission for load to building it for generation 11 Gas Prices Can Impact Competitiveness 12 US Energy Markets : Historic and Forward Fuel Prices $30 << Historic Prices $28 $26 Forward Prices >> Uranium Coal - CSX Coal - PRB $22 NG - Henry Hub $20 Oil - #6 NY 1% $18 Oil - #2 $16 $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 Dec-14 Jun-14 Dec-13 Jun-13 Dec-12 Jun-12 Dec-11 Jun-11 Dec-10 Jun-10 Dec-09 Jun-09 Dec-08 Jun-08 Dec-07 Jun-07 Dec-06 Jun-06 Dec-05 $0 Jun-05 Fuel Price ($/MMBtu) $24 • Prices do not include SO2, NOx, or CO2 allowances • Uranium prices include U308 commodity, conversion to UF6, enrichment, and fuel fabrication. The CEF cost is about $43 per lb-U308. Heat content is about 131 MMBtu/(lb-U308) • CSX coal prices include $15/ton transportation cost. CSX coal heat content is about 25 MMBtu/Ton. • PRB coal prices include $40/ton transportation cost. PRB coal heat content is about 17.6 MMBtu/Ton. • #6 Oil has a heat content of 6.287 MMBtu/bbl • #2 Oil has a heat content of 0.1387 MMBtu/gal 13 Developing Wind in Oklahoma 14 Development Steps Land Management Wind Assessment Interconnection Permitting Power Marketing Construction • For every project the Development steps are the same … but every state, county and municipality will have different requirements • Interconnection will differ by Regional Transmission operator. • Permitting can have state and federal requirements - Interface with US Fish and wildlife - Army Corp of Engineers - Local Environmental groups • Power markets are different by Regional transmission operators, state market. • Construction requirements will differ by county and municipality. There may be restrictions to noise, congestion, etc 15 Development Steps Land Management Wind Assessment Interconnection Permitting Power Marketing Construction • Land is typically optioned for 5-7 years; Long-Term agreement is typically 20-40 years. • Many states restrict how long land can be optioned before project construction. • Land owners typically receive a royalty of the project revenue or fixed prices per MW installed • Royalty payments are typically paid every 6 monthsLandowner relations and community relations is key to having a good 20 year relationship with the community. • Oklahoma tends to have very savvy landowners due to oil/gas lease experience • Oklahoma’s large ranches with low density housing are ideal for development • Little crop damage, few drain tiles or other irrigation issues • Fewer concerns with sound and shadow flicker setbacks 16 Development Steps Land Management Wind Assessment Interconnection Permitting Power Marketing Construction Acciona typically requires 2 years of wind data for any project • Hub height data is strongly preferred and has become the norm for financing • Lidar and Sodar are not typically financeable for projects but this may be changing slowly. • Given the size of the projects it is not uncommon to have 3-4 met towers per project. The more spreadout the project sthe more met towers required • An 80m met tower will run $100 – 120 K. If power is not available solar panels and batteries may be required • In some areas, permitting to install met towers can take 6-12 months. 17 Oklahoma Wind Map 18 Development Steps Land Management Wind Assessment 30 Days Request ~ 70 Days Interconnection 30 Days Feasibility Study ~ 90 Days Permitting 45 Days System Impact Study ~ 180 Days Power Marketing Construction 40 Days Facility Study ~ 180 Days LGIA 60 Days • The interconnection process can take 2 years. Depending on the number of projects in the queue the process could take longer • The timing of various steps in the process is extremely unpredictable with few requirement for the ISOs to follow a schedule • The cost through the facility study can range from $300K to $1MM 19 Development Steps Land Management Wind Assessment Interconnection Permitting Power Marketing Construction • Permitting in Oklahoma tend to be fairly straightforward. Little NIMBY activity – general attitude that each landowner controls their land alone • Generally low population of endangered species or other environmental concerns • Whooping Crane Corridor, Eagle, some bat populations, and growing Lesser Prairie Chicken concerns are top concerns but few show stoppers. 20 Development Steps Land Management Wind Assessment Interconnection Permitting Power Marketing Construction • Current environment nationwide is nearly all deals require Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) to get equity financing • SPP doesn’t have true real-time markets further limiting Merchant Hedge Options Energy • QF • Utilities • Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) • Power marketers • Merchant Hedge • Merchant Sales Renewable Energy Credits (RECs) / Carbon Counterparties • REC sales • Carbon offsets (future potential) • Financial institutions • ISO/RTO • • • • • Utilities Power marketers Financial institutions REC aggregators Corporations 21 US Energy Markets : Historic Power Prices and Sensitivities to Natural Gas Prices CAISO NP15 2009 Average Price: $35.79 2008 Average Price: $71.01 Natural Gas Sensitivity: 0.91 MDU.MDU 2009 Average Price: $23.21 2008 Average Price: $45.28 Natural Gas Sensitivity: 0.57 NYISO Zone E 2009 Average Price: $36.49 2008 Average Price: $67.56 Natural Gas Sensitivity: 0.78 Eco Grove 2009 Average Price: $25.25 2008 Average Price: $48.40 Natural Gas Sensitivity: 0.50 Red Hills 2009 Average Price: $26.90 2008 Average Price: $49.77 Natural Gas Sensitivity: 0.72 ERCOT South Zone 2009 Average Price: $32.63 2008 Average Price: $73.01 Natural Gas Sensitivity: 0.96 22 Development Steps Land Management Wind Assessment Interconnection Permitting Power Marketing Construction •Requirement for building a wind project will vary by state, county and local codes •Costs in Oklahoma tend to be on the lower end due to lower labor rates and relatively easy transportation requirements 23 Key Drivers for OK Wind • Oklahoma Installed Capacity – 1130 MW + 380 under construction • 11th in US for Installed Capacity • 8th in US for Potential Capacity What Has Driven This Development? • High Net Capacity Factors – 40% Plus • State Zero-Emission Facility Production Tax Credit – Facilities placed in service on or after January 1, 2007 and before January 1, 2016 the credit is $0.0050/kWh for the first ten years – Fully transferable – allows monetization at about 90% of value for companies without a tax appetite – Payments temporarily suspended through moratorium in 2011 • Property Tax Exemptions (5 years) – reimbursed to the Counties from State • Sales tax exemption as qualified manufacturer • RPS Goal of 15% - goals are sometimes effective if treated more like a mandate or it ensures cost recovery for utilities 24 Wind and Other Renewables - 3% or 20%? • How will we address externalities – CO2 and other Greenhouse Gases – Other pollutants – particulate, lead, etc. – Energy Security • Supply and Demand; Price elasticity – Will customers return to a willingness to pay for and drive renewables over other generation forms • How will we handle transmission - cost allocation, Eisenhower type plan? • Wind forecasting and improved ability to limit negative grid effects – Tied to transmission – improved grid integration reduces wind’s variability effects through wind diversification • What impact will disruptive technologies or breakthroughs have – Electric car adoption increased off-peak demand – Continued improvements in wind, solar and other costs – Storage 25