Research Grant Application – Political Science
Title of Proposed Project: Supranationalism vs. the Nation: The Effects of EU
Integration on Radical Right Party Fortunes
Abstract:
How do we explain the rise in electoral support for radical right parties in Europe in the
1990s? The states that witnessed an increase in support for these parties in the late 1990s
display variation in many of the domestic conditions that are typically used to explain
voter support for the radical right such as unemployment, immigration and party system
variables (such as the percentage of votes required to gain representation). The existing
literature focuses on these types of domestic-level explanations; the international level
has thus far avoided scrutiny. This project focuses on an international-level variable,
namely, deeper European Union (EU) integration enacted in the Maastricht Treaty and
subsequent European texts. Party system explanations and the EU integration variable
are integrated into a single theoretical model that explains differences in voting for the
radical right in EU member states from 1980-2005.
NARRATIVE:
1. Background, context, and goals for the project
This topic is part of two broader literatures: the first focuses on the reasons why
voters choose to cast their ballots for radical right parties. This phenomenon is a subject
of study because of the platforms of these parties. They often exhibit signs of
authoritarian and racist/nationalist tendencies that many observers consider to be counter
to the democratic process in which these parties compete. The radical right in Europe is
of particular interest at this time because of Europe’s history with fascism (which one
would assume would make people less likely to support parties with authoritarian,
nationalist rhetoric) and the surprising surge in support for radical right parties in a
number of European states, such as Austria, Belgium, and France in the 1990s.
The second literature addressed in this research project focuses on the effects of
European Union (EU) integration on domestic politics in member states. The EU made
incredible strides toward “deeper” integration with the completion of the Maastricht
Treaty in 1992. According to this document, the EU would soon undergo a
transformation from an economic trading bloc to something approximating a “United
States of Europe”. EU member states would, in the future, be expected to coordinate
their activities not only in the economic realm, but also in foreign, military, and
immigration policy.
Surprisingly, these two literatures have thus far operated in isolation from one
another. The explanations for radical right voting have focused on domestic economic,
demographic, and political variables, but little attention has been paid to the effects of EU
integration on voter behavior. Likewise, a great deal of attention has been paid to the
bureaucratic and legal efforts at deeper EU integration, but little work has aimed at
explaining the effects this has within member states. Due to perhaps my unfair advantage
of having studied in France in 1995 when this controversy was beginning to boil over, I
felt the link between integration and voter behavior was a topic that needed further
examination and was surprisingly neglected.
The goal of this project is to refine my dissertation, Supranationalism vs. the
Nation, for publication. The end goal is the publication of this work in book form, but for
the academic year 2009-2010 I intend to use the time provided by a course release to
finalize two chapters and present one of those completed chapters at a peer-reviewed
conference, namely the International Studies Association Annual conference in 2010.
2. Plan of work
I intend to finalize two chapters of my dissertation. These chapters include the
statistical analysis chapter and a chapter that examines relative positions of mainstream
and radical right parties on the issue of EU integration. The statistical chapter examines
the connection between vote share received by radical right parties in national legislative
elections in an election year (the dependent variable), and the state’s decision to enter
into the EU (the main independent variable, determined according to the year the state
joined the EU and accepted the terms of the Maastricht Treaty). This research uses
regression analysis as well as a “change in change” model to examine the change in vote
percentage gained by radical right parties from one election to the next. The bulk of the
new statistical work will entail including analyses of far left parties – the vote share they
received and its relationship with the state’s signature of the Maastricht Treaty.
In the other chapter, I examine party positions on the EU integration issue. A
number of analyses have been conducted on party platforms vis a vis EU integration –
these provide a score that illuminates whether the party is pro-EU or anti-EU, based on
their party manifestos and expert surveys. Using these scores, I examine the success of
the radical right party in a given election, bearing in mind the position they took up on
integration and the level of anti-EU sentiment in the state (from Eurobarometer surveys).
Radical right parties and mainstream right parties (their primary competitors) have been
known to shift their position on integration from one election to the next, so this provides
an opportunity to examine the effect that a more anti-EU position had on the radical right
party’s success. The research from this point forward would focus on the positions of
the far left parties, to see if they also tried to seize upon anti-EU sentiment and if so,
whether they were successful.
For each of the chapters, I expect to perform the following tasks:

Statistical chapter (Ch. 3):
o Statistical work on effects of integration on voting for radical right
is nearly complete

Need to re-run the analysis looking at percentage change in
vote from one election to the next (change in change
model)
o Need to bring in same variables for far left parties and analyze
whether the far left benefited from discontent with EU integration
in same way as right
o Time required: approximately 100 hours (2-3 months, with 10
hours a week devoted to chapter)
o Methods employed: basic regression analysis to see if far left
gained an increase in vote percentage (dependent variable) as a
result of state signing on to the Maastricht Treaty (independent
variable)

Party positioning on EU integration (Ch. 4)
o This is complete for the radical right
o Need to add positions of far left into existing “political opportunity
space” maps that depict the positions of radical right and
mainstream right parties on the issue of EU integration, look for
openings to seize on anti-EU sentiment found in public opinion
surveys
o conduct analysis of far left parties, see if they were trying to
occupy the same opportunity space on the integration issue as the
radical right
o Time required: approximately 100 hours (2-3 months, with 10
hours a week devoted to chapter)
o Methods:

Use existing datasets (Chapel Hill data and Mapping Policy
Preferences data) to establish positions of far left parties on
integration issue
3. Project’s Value:
This project fits into my overall plan for professional development on two fronts.
As a political scientist, I plan to maintain an active research agenda on issues of EU
integration and its effects on EU member states. With the completion of this project, I
will be able to spin off at least two articles in subsequent years on “follow-up” questions
raised by the dissertation. I will also be able to make a contribution to the two wider
literatures discussed above. As an instructor, this knowledge will serve to increase my
effectiveness in teaching courses on European states and the European Union (e.g. POLS
350: The New Politics of Europe), the area of study for which I was hired. My research
agenda will allow me to bring new and interesting topics to the classroom on a regular
basis and keep my teaching current.
4. Evaluation and dissemination of the project:
In order to evaluate the extent to which my objectives for this project have been
met, I intend to have two chapters completed by the end of the academic year 2009-2010.
I also plan to present one of the chapters at a peer-reviewed conference such as the
International Studies Association conference in 2010, in order to receive the feedback of
experts in the field and to continue networking with other political scientists in my field
of interest. I hope to convert at least one of these chapters to an article for publication in
West European Politics or European Union Politics.