Claire Oaks – Barlett, IL
April 2, 2012
Artemus Ward
Dept. of Political Science
Northern Illinois University
aeward@niu.edu
Introduction
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The 2012 presidential election featured a relatively
vulnerable incumbent Democratic president who was
unchallenged for re-nomination.
The election also featured a presumptive Republican
nominee whose party was deeply dissatisfied with him
throughout the nominating process.
The backdrop was an ongoing economic recession
and an electorate dissatisfied with the direction
America is headed in as characterized by both Tea
Party and Occupy movements.
Getting the GOP Nomination
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In order to win the party nomination, candidates compete for delegates who are
pledged to vote for them at the Republican National Convention in Tampa, FL in
late August 2012.
There will be 2,286 delegates chosen, and a candidate must accumulate 1,144
delegate votes at the convention to win the nomination.
1,944 bound delegates are allocated to the candidates at caucuses and
primaries or later at local conventions.
222 unbound elected delegates cannot commit themselves to any candidate
before they are elected as National Convention Delegates at their local
conventions.
120 unbound RNC delegates or “super delegates” are not a part of the
primary process but do vote at the convention.
GOP Dissatisfaction with Romney
The 2012 Republican nominating process was defined
by Republican dissatisfaction with the presumptive
nominee Mitt Romney.
 Romney was the early favorite for three reasons: he
raised the most money, had the most extensive
campaign organization, and have garnered the most
important early endorsements from influential
Republicans.
 Yet at one time or another, most of his challengers polled
ahead of him during the nominating process: Michele
Bachmann, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich,
and Rich Santorum.
 But Romney was able to sustain his campaign through
each candidate’s ascendance and he ultimately won
more primaries and pulled ahead in delegates while
other dropped out.
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The Republicans
Minnesota Governor
Tim Pawlenty ended
his campaign after
finishing third in the
Iowa straw poll.
Rep. Thad McCotter
of Michigan failed to
be invited to any of the
debates, suffering
"Death by media".
Former New Mexico
Governor Gary
Johnson withdrew to
run for the Libertarian
Party nomination.
The Republicans
Rep. Michele Bachmann
of Minnesota won the
Iowa Straw Poll but
finished 6th in the Iowa
Caucuses with only 5% of
the vote and withdrew.
Business executive
Herman Cain
suspended his
campaign after media
reports of alleged
sexual misconduct.
Former Louisiana
Governor Buddy
Roemer withdrew to
run for the Americans
Elect and Reform Party
nominations.
The Republicans
Former Utah Governor
Jon Hutsman invested
heavily in New
Hampshire. After finishing
third with 17%, he
withdrew.
Texas Governor Rick
Perry withdrew after
placing 5th in Iowa with
10% and last in New
Hampshire with 1%.
Rep. Ron Paul of Texas
sought the Republican
nomination in 2008 and in
2012 finished 3rd in Iowa
with 21% and 2nd in New
Hampshire with 23%.
The Republicans
Former House Speaker
Newt Gingrich (GA) won
the South Carolina and
Georgia primaries.
Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick
Santorum was the last Republican
to poll ahead of Romney and, as a
result, “peaked” just as the primary
season was getting underway. He
tied Romney in Iowa and won in
CO, MO, MN, ND, OK, TN, KS, AL,
MS, and LA.
Former Massachusetts
Governor Mitt Romney was the
frontrunner from the start
winning Iowa and New
Hampshire along with FL, NV,
ME, AZ, MI, WY, WA, AK, ID,
MA, OH, VT, VA, HI, PR, and IL.
GOP Race for the Nomination
Delegates
600
500
477
400
300
205
200
135
100
34
0
Mitt Romney
Rick Santorum
Note: Totals as of April 1, 2012. 1,144 needed to win.
Newt Gingrich
Ron Paul
The Democrats
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Barack Obama – President of the United
States.
There are a number of others who get zero
media coverage including:
Jim Rogers – (top) retired college professor
and perennial political candidate had received
15,540 popular votes, earning three delegates
through March 2012.
Randall Terry – (middle) pro-life activist and
founder of Operation Rescue had received
22,734 popular votes as of March 10th, 2012
and had qualified for seven delegates in the
Oklahoma Primary, where he bested Obama
in the vote total in several counties.
John Wolfe, Jr. – (bottom) attorney and
perennial political candidate from TN, he won
a minimum of three delegates in the LA
primary.
Campaign Finance: Super PACs
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Political Action Committees (PACs) raise
money to support candidates and issues.
The 2010 election marked the rise of the
Super PAC -- officially known as
"independent-expenditure only committees".
Super PACs raise funds from corporations,
unions and other groups -- a practice upheld
by the U.S. Supreme Court in its 2010
decision in Citizens United v. Federal
Election Commission.
In that decision, Justice Anthony Kennedy
wrote for the 5-4 majority: “If the First
Amendment has any force, it prohibits
Congress from fining or jailing citizens, or
associations of citizens, for simply engaging
in political speech.”
In dissent, Justice John Paul Stevens wrote:
“A democracy cannot function effectively
when its constituent members believe laws
are being bought and sold.”
Campaign Finance: Republicans
Through March 2012, all super PACs had raised a
total of $154 million and spent $82 million —
mainly Republicans tearing down other
Republicans.
 For example, Restore Our Future, the super PAC
supporting Mitt Romney, had spent $37.9 million
through March 2012 against other Republicans in
the GOP primary alone.
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Campaign Finance: Obama
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Through February 2012, President Obama
had raised roughly $200 million for his reelection bid.
Of course this did not count the tens of
millions raised by the Democratic National
Committee (DNC) and numerous Political
Action Committees (PACs) that raise money
to benefit the president and other democrats
in the 2012 election.
At the same time, the Obama campaign had
spent more than $135 million on operations
through February 2012--$3 million more
than all of his GOP challengers combined.
The Obama campaign had amassed a paid
campaign staff of over 500 people, 330 at
the Chicago headquarters in the Prudential
Building and the rest spread throughout the
country.
Campaign Finance: Small Donors
Small donations—anything from $1-$10 can also have
a huge effect.
 In 2008, President Obama raised tens of millions of
dollars via the internet through small donations by
individuals.
 His campaign regularly sends out e-mails to
supporters such as this one from March 31, 2012:
 Dear _________.
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This is important: Thank you.
You're why I decided to do this five years ago -- and why we
have the chance to finish it.
The next three months will be tough.
Can you pitch in $10 so we're ready for them?
https://donate.barackobama.com/Today
Thank you,
Barack
Conclusion
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Despite the ailing economy and America’s overall disapproval
of the direction the country is headed in President Obama has
not faced a serious challenge for re-nomination.
Despite dissatisfaction with the presumptive nominee Mitt
Romney, he appears to be well on his way to winning the
GOP nomination.
According to a CNN poll conducted at the end of March 2012,
registered voters picked Obama over Romney 54%-43%.
Obama’s approval rating was just above 50%.
Will Romney be able to defeat Obama during the general
election?