The US Recession
Tutor2u
February 2009
USA Gross Domestic Product
Percent
Annual Percentage Change in National Output at Constant Prices
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
00
05
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Confidence of Business CEOs
Index
Quarterly survey of business confidence, Business Roundtable, CEO Economic Outlook
Index
110
110
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
Q4
02
Q2
03
Q4
Q2
04
Q4
Q2
05
Q4
Q2
06
Q4
Q2
07
Q4
Q2
08
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Sales of Motor Vehicles in the United States
Number of
Thousands per month, seasonally adjusted
700000
700000
600000
600000
500000
500000
400000
Domestic passenger car sales
400000
300000
200000
300000
Imported passenger car sales
200000
100000
100000
0
0
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Consumer Confidence and House Prices
Index
Conference Board, Consumer confidence, Seasonally adjusted index
230
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
House Prices, OFHEO
150
Index
230
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
150
Conference Board, Consumer confidence, SA, Index, 1985=100
130
130
110
110
90
90
70
70
50
50
30
30
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Consumer Confidence and Interest Rates
Conference Board, Consumer confidence, Seasonally adjusted index
Percent
6.0
5.0
5.0
4.0
4.0
3.0
3.0
2.0
2.0
1.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
120
110
Index
6.0
Policy Interest Rates
120
Consumer confidence
110
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
Jan
Apr
Jul
05
Oct Jan
Apr
Jul
06
Oct Jan Apr
Jul
07
Oct Jan Apr
Jul Oct
08
Source: Reuters EcoWin
United States - Growth and Unemployment
Percent
Percentage rate of growth year on year at constant prices
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
Percent
1
1
Economic Growth
0
0
-1
-1
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
8.0
7.5
Unemployment Rate (% of labour force)
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Source: Reuters EcoWin
USA Exports of Goods and Services
175
175
150
150
125
125
100
100
Goods and services
billions
USD (billions)
Monthly data, $ billion, seasonally adjusted
75
75
Goods
50
50
Services
25
25
0
0
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Source: Reuters EcoWin
USA's GDP and GNP
11.75
11.75
11.50
11.50
11.25
11.25
11.00
11.00
10.75
10.75
10.50
10.50
10.25
10.25
10.00
10.00
9.75
9.75
9.50
9.50
00
GNP
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
thousand billions
USD (thousand billions)
Quarterly value in trillion US dollars
08
GDP
Source: Reuters EcoWin
New Home Sales in the USA - Signs of Recession
Number of
For sale at end of period, total, seasonally adjusted
600000
600000
550000
550000
500000
500000
450000
450000
400000
400000
350000
350000
300000
300000
250000
250000
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Source: Reuters EcoWin
United States Personal (Household) Saving, Rate
Percent
Percentage of disposable income, seasonally adjusted
8
8
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Source: Reuters EcoWin
USA Trade Balance with China
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
-20
-20
-25
-25
-30
-30
billions
USD (billions)
Monthly balance of trade in goods and services
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Inflation and Nominal Interest Rates in the USA
Per cent
7
7
Percent
Interest rates
6
6
5
5
4
4
Inflation
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Source: Reuters EcoWin