Matakuliah
Tahun
: J0124-Manajemen Sumber Daya Manusia
: 2010
Human Resource Planning
7
Learning Outcomes
After studying this chapter, the students should be able to :
• Identify the advantages of HR planning
• Describe the basic tools used for forecasting
• Identify the alternatives of surplus and shortage of employees
forecasted
Bina Nusantara University
3
Strategic Planning and Human Resources
• Strategic Planning
 Procedures for making decisions about the
organization’s long-term goals and strategies
• Human Resources Planning (HRP)
 Process of anticipating and making provision for the
movement (flow) of people into, within, and out of
an organization.
© 2010 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved
Linking Strategic Planning and Human Resources
© 2010 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved
© 2010 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved
Forecasting: A Critical Element of Planning
• Forecasting involves:
a. forecasting the demand for labor
b. forecasting the supply of labor
c. balancing supply and demand considerations.
© 2010 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved
Model of HR Forecasting
© 2010 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved
Forecasting Demand for Employees
Quantitative Methods
Forecasting Demand
Qualitative Methods
© 2010 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved
Quantitative Approach: Trend Analysis
• Forecasting labor demand based on an
organizational index such as sales:
1. Select a business factor that best predicts human
resources needs.
2. Plot the business factor in relation to the number of
employees to determine the labor productivity ratio.
3. Compute the productivity ratio for the past five years.
4. Calculate human resources demand by multiplying the
business factor by the productivity ratio.
5. Project human resources demand out to the target
year(s).
© 2010 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved
Example of Trend Analysis of HR Demand
© 2010 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved
Qualitative Approaches
• Management Forecasts
 The opinions (judgments) of supervisors,
department managers, experts, or others
knowledgeable about the organization’s future
employment needs.
• Delphi Technique
 An attempt to decrease the subjectivity of forecasts
by soliciting and summarizing the judgments of a
preselected group of individuals.
 The final forecast represents a composite group
judgment.
© 2010 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved
Forecasting the Supply of Employees:
Internal Labor Supply
• Staffing Tables
• Markov Analysis
• Skill Inventories
• Replacement Charts
• Succession Planning
© 2010 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved
Forecasting Internal Labor Supply
• Staffing Tables
 Graphic representations of all organizational jobs,
along with the numbers of employees currently
occupying those jobs and future (monthly or yearly)
employment requirements.
• Markov Analysis
 A method for tracking the pattern of employee
movements through various jobs.
© 2010 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved
Hypothetical Markov Analysis for a Retail Company
© 2010 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved
Internal Demand Forecasting Tools
• Skill Inventories
 Files of personnel education, experience, interests,
skills, etc., that allow managers to quickly match
job openings with employee backgrounds.
• Replacement Charts
 Listings of current jobholders and persons who are
potential replacements if an opening occurs.
• Succession Planning
 The process of identifying, developing, and tracking
key individuals for executive positions.
© 2010 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved
An Executive Replacement Chart
© 2010 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved
Shortage of Workers Forecasted
• Innovative recruiting
• Compensation incentives
• Training programs
• Different selection standards
Bina Nusantara University
17
Surplus of Employees Forecasted
• Restricted hiring
• Reduced hours
• Early retirement
18
Bina Nusantara University
Downsizing
• Downsizing, or rightsizing, is essentially the
reverse of a company growing
• Negative aspects of downsizing
• Outplacement
Bina Nusantara University
19