Ahmad Ijaz
Center for Business and Economic Research
The University of Alabama
28th Annual Economic
Outlook Conference
January 14, 2016
Alabama Employment (2011-2015)
Total Nonagricultural
Mining and Logging
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable Goods Manufacturing
Nondurable Goods Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation and Utilities
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State Government
Local Government
January
2011
November
2015
Change
1,839,400
12,100
77,200
233,200
143,500
89,700
358,800
70,900
221,500
66,400
23,500
91,100
208,200
213,200
159,500
78,400
384,200
57,200
110,400
216,600
1,975,700
10,400
84,200
251,500
166,200
85,300
386,300
71,900
239,800
74,600
22,200
97,000
232,500
234,800
191,500
80,900
384,400
54,000
112,900
217,500
136,300
-1,700
7,000
18,300
22,700
-4,400
27,500
1,000
18,300
8,200
-1,300
5,900
24,300
21,600
32,000
2,500
200
-3,200
2,500
900
Source: Alabama Department of Labor, Labor Market Information Division.
2
Monthly Employment Indicators (November 2015)
Not Seasonally
Adjusted
Seasonally
Adjusted
Civilian Labor Force
Percent Change from Year Ago Level
Absolute Change from Year Ago Level
2,150,685
0.5%
11,594
2,146,294
0.8%
16,163
Employed
Percent Change from Year Ago Level
Absolute Change from Year Ago Level
2,029,183
0.6%
12,923
2,018,189
0.9%
18,967
Unemployed
Percent Change from Year Ago Level
Absolute Change from Year Ago Level
121,502
-1.1%
-1,329
128,105
-2.1%
-2,804
Alabama Unemployment Rate
Alabama Unemployment Rate (Nov. 2014)
U.S. Unemployment Rate
5.6%
5.7%
4.8%
6.0%
6.1%
5.0%
U.S. Unemployment Rate (Nov. 2014)
5.5%
5.8%
Source: Alabama Department of Labor, Labor Market Information Division.
Note: 24% of workers are underemployed, about 487,000.
3
Labor Force Participation Rate
(Annual)
69
67
United States
65
63
Alabama
61
59
57
55
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
4
Alabama Nonagricultural Employment
Change in Number of Jobs
Total Nonagricultural
Mining and Logging
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable Goods Manufacturing
Nondurable Goods Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation and Utilities
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State Government
Local Government
November 2013 to
November 2014
31,500
-200
800
3,400
5,600
-2,200
4,300
0
3,600
700
-600
200
9,100
3,700
6,100
2,000
2,700
-300
1,400
1,600
November 2014 to
November 2015
24,900
-1,300
4,700
-3,000
-700
-2,300
4,800
-1,400
4,000
2,200
0
2,000
4,200
5,900
6,400
-300
1,500
600
800
100
Source: Alabama Department of Labor, Labor Market Information Division.
5
Total Annual Nonfarm Employment
and Unemployment Rate
Employment (Thousands), Unemployment Rate (Percent), 1990-2015
2,100
12
2,000
Unemployment Rate
10
Employment
1,900
8
1,800
6
1,700
4
Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Employment
Employment
Unemployment Rate
1,600
2
1,500
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Source: Alabama Department of Labor.
6
Change in Alabama Employment
From the Beginning of the Recession
102
1981
1990
1980
2001
2007
100
98
96
94
92
Number of months
90
1
6
11
16
21
26
31
36
41
46
51
56
61
66
71
76
81
86
91
Source: Alabama Department of Labor Statistics and Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama.
7
Tax Revenues (FY2016, Year-to-Date December)
Tax
Total Collection
Percent
Change
From
Year Ago
Change in
Revenue
from Year
Ago Level
Total
$2,383,733,641
0.8%
$18,651,051
Income (Individual)
$897,482,796
5.9%
$49,818,978
Sales
$554,516,239
4.6%
$24,242,856
Source: Alabama Department of Revenue.
8
Alabama Manufacturing Employment
Annual Percent Change
Source: Alabama Department of Labor Statistics and Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama.
9
Manufacturing – Automotive Industry
• 6th in U.S. in vehicle exports (2015, Through November)
• 4 OEMs in the state (Original Equipment Manufacturers)
• 5th in U.S. in vehicles manufactured
• Alabama’s three assembly plants produced over a million
vehicles in 2015
• $8.7 billion in transportation equipment exports, $7.3
billion in vehicle and vehicle parts exports in
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Economic Development Partnership of Alabama
and Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama.
10
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and IHS Global Insight.
11
Alabama Construction Employment
Annual Percent Change
Source: Alabama Department of Labor Statistics and Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama.
12
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and IHS Global Insight.
13
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama.
14
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW.
15
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama.
16
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW.
17
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
18
Source: BEA and IHS Global Insight.
19
ABCITM
100
90
80
70
Index
60
55.6
55.5
57.4
57.6
54.8
54.2
51.2
53.0
50
40
30
20
10
0
Q2
Q3
2014
Q4
Q1
Q2
2015
Q3
Q4
Q1
2016
20
ABCITM History
68.7
70
65
60
53
55
50
45
40
35
31.5
30
Q1
2002
Q1
2003
Q1
Q1
2004
2005
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q1
2006
2007
2008
2009
Q1
Q1
Q1
2010
2011
2012
Q1
2013
Q1
2014
Q1
2015
Q1
2016
21
U.S. and Alabama Economies
Expectations versus Prior Quarter
60
Alabama
54.6
55
50
49.2
United
States
45
40
35
Q2
Q3
2013
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2014
Q4
Q1
Q2
2015
Q3
Q4
Q1
2016
22
Sales and Profits
Expectations versus Prior Quarter
65
Sales
60
55.8
55
Profits
53.0
50
45
40
Q2
Q3
2013
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2014
Q4
Q1
Q2
2015
Q3
Q4
Q1
2016
23
Hiring and Capital Expenditures
Expectations versus Prior Quarter
58
56
Hiring
54
53.0
52.4
52
50
Capital Expenditures
48
46
44
42
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
24
ABCI by Metro Area
Q1 2016 compared to Q4 2015
Alabama
Birmingham-Hoover
Huntsville
53.0
50.5
52.9
Mobile
Montgomery
57.3
55.7
49
Metro Share of State GDP, 2014
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
and Center for Business and Economic
Research, The University of Alabama.
26
Total Employment
Note: Total employment is by place of residence. October 2015 preliminary not seasonally adjusted data.
Source: Alabama Department of Labor and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
27
Four metros past 2007/2008 annual peak in November 2015
Nonfarm Employment
Alabama
Anniston-Oxford
Auburn-Opelika
Birmingham-Hoover
Daphne-Fairhope-Foley
Dothan
Florence-Muscle Shoals
Gadsden*
Huntsville*
Mobile*
Montgomery
Tuscaloosa
2007 or 2008
Peak Year
2,005,700
53,400
54,800
533,400
66,800
63,100
57,300
38,000
214,300
184,600
178,000
98,500
Net Jobs in Metropolitan Areas
Net Jobs in Nonmetro Counties
Job Loss to 2014
Number
Percent
30,000
1.50%
6,900
12.92%
-7,400
-13.50%
9,200
1.66%
-2,400
-3.59%
5,300
8.40%
1,400
2.44%
0
0.00%
-6,600
-3.08%
7,800
4.23%
6,300
3.54%
-8,800
-8.93%
16,300
13,700
* Gadsden, Huntsville and Mobile employment peaked in 2008; all others saw peaks in 2007.
Note: Nonfarm employment (jobs) is by place of work.
Source: Alabama Department of Labor and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
28
Educational Attainment 2014
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 American Community Survey 1-year estimates.
29
Income and Wages
Per Capita Income 2014
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
30
Median Family Income FY2015
Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Economic Affairs,
Economic and Market Analysis Division.
31
Percent Change in New Home Construction
(January to September 2015)
Source: Alabama Center for Real Estate, The University of Alabama
32
Manufacturing
Note: October 2015 preliminary not seasonally adjusted data.
Source: Alabama Department of Labor and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
33
Total Service Providing Industries, Percent of Area Jobs
Note: September 2015 preliminary, not seasonally adjusted data
Source: Source: Alabama Department of Labor and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Center for Business and Economic Research
34
35
Top issues that Alabama is facing:
1
2
State Budget & Government
Leadership
Education | Training | Skilled
Workforce
State & local government; balanced budget;
leadership; tax reform; state constitution
Quality of public education; workforce development;
lack of skilled workers
3
Economy / Business
Economic & business growth; small business
development
4
Job Growth
Job growth; better quality/paying jobs
5
Healthcare Costs
Healthcare costs; Affordable Care Act; Medicare,
Medicaid; mental health care funding
6
Infrastructure Improvement
Highways; road funding
Source: Center for Business and Economic Research, ABCI Panelists’ Poll, Nov. 2015.
36
Top Issues Facing Companies
in Alabama
1
Company Finances & Development
Profitability; business costs; sales; business growth;
competition; emerging technologies
2/3
Government Regulations & Taxes
Federal, state, and local government; taxation;
regulations; programs for small businesses; uncertainty
2/3
Workforce
Lack of qualified workers
4
Economy
Economic recovery & growth
5
Healthcare Costs
Healthcare costs; Affordable Care Act
Source: Center for Business and Economic Research, ABCI Panelists’ Poll, Nov. 2015.
37
Alabama has lower labor force
participation, population growth, and
educational attainment than the nation
Labor force participation (2014): Alabama 57.7% United States 63.3%
Population Growth
Alabama
United States
1990-2000
10.1%
13.2%
2000-2010
7.5%
9.7%
2010-2015
1.6%
4.1%
Educational Attainment (Age 25 and over population)
2010-2014 (2014)
Alabama
United States
High school graduates
83.7% (84.7%)
86.3% (86.9%)
Bachelor’s or higher degree
23.1% (23.5%)
29.3% (30.1%)
48
GDP and Nonfarm Employment Forecasts, 2016
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Alabama Department of Labor, and Center for Business and Economic Research
The University of Alabama, December 2015.
39
Alabama Forecast Summary
Alabama GDP, Employment and Tax Receipts
(December 2015 forecast)
(Percent change)
Real GDP
2013
2014
2015
2016
1.9
2.0
2.4
2.3
1.8 to 2.5
1.5 to 3.0
1.2
1.0
1.0 to 1.4
0.8 to 1.5
4.0
3.3
range
Employment
0.9
1.1
range
Total Tax Receipts, FY
range
4.0
1.3
2.0 to 4.5
40