The Arctic, Seafood Safety,
and Healthy Ecosystems
John Stein
Director
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
September 23, 2013
A Changing Arctic
• Temperatures and Ocean
Acidification are increasing at
the highest rates globally
• 2012 sea ice levels set a
record low
• Models forecast nearly icefree Arctic summers in the
next few decades
These changes open the High Arctic to commercial
activity – oil and gas, shipping, fishing, tourism
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Oil and Fish and the Science
We know a lot about seafood safety
We’ve made huge strides in
understanding oil toxicity
BUT - We know very little about
impacts to the Arctic ecosystem
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Seafood Safety: Emergency response
Hurricane Katrina
Exxon Valdez
Persian Gulf War
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
North Cape barge
Conduct & share science
Protect wildlife & habitats
Assess damage
Restore the natural
resources that were injured
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Field validation of laboratory results: Metabolites
of PAHs in bile –vs.- total PAHs in muscle of fish
140
120
100
80
ppb 60
40
20
∑ ACs < 30 ng/g
0
10
100
1000
10000
100000
Fluorescent ACs (ng phenanthrene equivalents/mg bile protein)
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Deepwater Horizon
Is the seafood safe to eat?
And how do we know?
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
NOAA Seafood Safety Program
Surveillance
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
PAHs in “Reopening” Gulf seafood
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
What about dispersants?
There was concern over the widespread use of dispersants
in the aftermath of the Deepwater Horizon incident.
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Dispersants in Gulf seafood
1000
Dioctyl Sodium Sulfosuccinate (µg/g)
100
10
Fish Below LOD
Shrimp Below LOD
Fish
Shrimp Action Limit
Fish Action Limit
1
0.1
0.01
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
500
100
Conduct & share science
Protect wildlife &
habitats
ASSESS DAMAGE
Restore the natural
resources that were
injured
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Effects of Lower Molecular Weight PAHs (Crude oil)
From: Incardona, et al., Toxicol. Appl. Pharmocol. (2004)
•Malformations are secondary to loss of circulation
•Genetic “knock-down” of cardiac function produces
same malformations
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
The vertebrate heart
is a primary target for
PAH toxicity
Acute and long-term impacts of oil
spills on embryonic fish (crude oil)
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Cosco Busan Oil Spill, San Francisco Bay
November 7, 2007 (bunker fuel)
~ 55,000 gallons of refined fuel oil
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Unexpectedly high late embryonic mortality in
intertidal spawn at oiled sites
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Bunker oil is highly phototoxic to
zebrafish embryos
Crude oil, no sunlight
Crude oil + sunlight
Bunker oil + sunlight
Bunker oil, no sunlight
Hatlen et al., 2010, Aquat Toxicol 99:56
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Oil in the Arctic
• Type and composition of
spilled oil is important –
i.e. bunker vs. crude oil
• Timing of spill is
important (24 hour
daylight in Arctic
summer, spawning)
• Conducting initial studies
on Pacific Cod eggs
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
State of the Science for Seafood
Safety Response
• We know what’s needed in a response
• Have excellent tools to asses oil impacts/effects
• We don’t know the sensitivity of Arctic species
and ecosystems
• Incredible challenges to responding in the Arctic
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
State of Seafood Safety Response –
Perception
• It’s a communications issue. The science is
clear. Perception is not.
• There are real impacts on fish and larvae
• And the effects seen at very low levels
• Minimal risk for consumption of fish
• Yet still we must test fish flesh for oil to
address public concern
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Social Economic Impact of a Spill
• Public perceives seafood is not safe to eat.
• Shellfish may not be safe
• There is minimal to no health risk from fish
• Perception of health risk leads to loss of market
share, slow to recover
• Developing tools to assess socio-economic
dimensions
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Integrated
Ecosystem
Assessments
(IEAs)
Human Well-Being
Health and Safety
Autonomy & SelfSufficiency
Social-cultural Relationships
Economic Conditions
Institutions & Governance
Human
Activities
Focal Components of
Ecological Integrity
Ecological Interactions
Fisheries
Protected Species
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Habitats
Climate & Ocean
Drivers
Example: Evaluate Economic Tradeoffs in
Fisheries Decisions
Real estate
Hotels
Gas Stations
Hospitals
Restaurants
We can now answer:
How will changes in fisheries management affect other economic sectors?
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Thank you
Questions?
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Background Slides
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
What NOAA is Doing
• White House released National Strategy
for the Arctic Region in May
• NOAA’s Goals (2011):
– Forecast sea ice
– Strengthen foundational science
– Improve weather and water forecasts
– Enhance partnerships
– Improve stewardship and management
– Advance resilient and healthy communities
and economies
Detailed NOAA Arctic Action Plan to be released in 2013
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Understanding the Arctic
Ecosystem
• Map distribution of marine fish, shellfish, and
prey in Chukchi, Beaufort, and N. Bering seas
• Develop abundance estimates of seals
• Track movements of whales (bowhead, gray,
humpback)
• Support Distributed Biological Observatory
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Cultural Dimensions of Coastal Ecosystems
Meanings, Values, & Identities
• Define a person or community, and constitute a ‘way of life’
• Enlivened through language, relationships, and practices
• Develop through ecosystem interactions
• Form and informed by 'cultural models'
• Dynamic, heterogeneous, changing over time and space
Local Knowledge & Practice
• Cumulative knowledge of the environment and its social and spatial conditions
• Embedded within sociocultural processes
• Continually regenerated through practical engagements with ecosystems
Livelihood Dynamics
• Formal and informal economic activities
• Noncommercial harvests for household use or exchange
• Linked to culture, knowledge, social relations, and traditions
• Job satisfaction, quality of life, and occupational and place identities
Governance & Access
• Mechanisms of control, rules of access, decision-making processes
• Tied to philosophies, norms, relationships, and knowledge systems
• Varied dynamics across spatial and organizational scales
• Entangled with political issues and inequalities
Bio-cultural Interactions
• Varied food web effects on sociocultural phenomena
• Cultural keystone species play fundamental roles in social systems and cultural identity
• Cultural-based restoration and management creates 'bio-cultural landscapes'
• Changing environments impact cultural connections to ecosystems and cultural wellbeing
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Example 1: Trends in Diversification of Fishery
Revenue
Vessels with West Coast and Alaska Average Revenuee >$5K
8500
Average Herfindahl-Hirschman Index
>$5K
2010 Fleet
8500
1981-2010 Fleet
Vessels with 2010 West Coast Revenue >$5K
2010 WA >$5K
8000
8000
7500
7500
7000
7000
6500
6500
6000
6000
2010 OR >$5K
2010 CA >$5K
• Herfindahl Index increases as diversification declines
• Diversification of fishery revenue for vessels fishing the West
Coast and Alaska has declined over time
• The current fleet is the least diversified in 30 years
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Fisheries revenue becomes more stable with greater
diversification
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Integrated
Ecosystem
Assessments
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Our oceans and coasts are busy places
• Many existing uses
• Populations are growing
• Coastal economies are
struggling
• We are looking to the oceans
to provide even more
• Comparatively our oceans are not
well understood
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Integrated Ecosystem Assessments
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Emergency Response: Natural Disasters
Address immediate concerns:
• Human health risk through
consumption of contaminated seafood
• Potential risks to human health due to
poor water quality
• Effects on the health of living marine
resources
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Cosco Busan fish injury
assessment – a focus on herring
Keystone and
representative forage
fish species
Spill occurred weeks
before the usual
spawning season
Extensive oil toxicity
insights from Exxon
Valdez
Last remaining
commercial finfish
fishery in SF Bay
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Hypothetical Alternative Management Scenarios
1. Status Quo
Gear
Shift
2. Gear Shift From Trawl to Pot and Longline
3. Prohibit All Bottom-Contact Gear in Rockfish Conservation
Area
Spatial
Management
4. Consolidate Spatial Management (protect Essential Fish
Habitat on shelf)
Trade-Offs
--Ecological (2011 IEA; and Kaplan et al. 2012 Prog. Oceanography)
--Economic ( Kaplan and Leonard 2012 Marine Policy)
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Employment Effects
600
Status Quo
Jobs (total employment)
500
Gear Shift
400
RCA Closure to
all Bottom
Contact
300
Consolidate
Spatial
Management
200
100
0
Large
Groundfish
Trawler
Sablefish
Fixed Gear
Other
Groundfish
Fixed Gear
Shoreside
Hake
Midwater
Trawl
Processor
Wholesaler
Fleet or sector causing employment effects on economy
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Convenience Store Income Impacts from
Status Quo Scenario
1.6
1.4
Income, million $
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Year 1
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Year 5
Year 15
Example: Puget Sound Recreational
Shellfish Harvesting Survey (underway)
Goals:
• Assess behavior of harvesters in response to bed
closures
• Assess the economic value of access to beaches
• Assess the change in these values with possible changes
in management policies
Northwest Fisheries Science Center