Matakuliah : M0614 / Data Mining & OLAP Tahun : Feb - 2010 Classification and Prediction (cont.) Pertemuan 09 Learning Outcomes Pada akhir pertemuan ini, diharapkan mahasiswa akan mampu : • Mahasiswa dapat menggunakan teknik analisis classification by decision tree induction, Bayesian classification, classification by back propagation, dan lazy learners pada data mining. (C3) 3 Bina Nusantara Acknowledgments These slides have been adapted from Han, J., Kamber, M., & Pei, Y. Data Mining: Concepts and Technique and Tan, P.-N., Steinbach, M., & Kumar, V. Introduction to Data Mining. Bina Nusantara Outline Materi • Rule-based classification • Classification by back propagation • Lazy learners (or learning from your neighbours) 5 Bina Nusantara Rule-Based Classifier • Classify records by using a collection of “if…then…” rules • Rule: (Condition) y – where • Condition is a conjunctions of attributes • y is the class label – LHS: rule antecedent or condition – RHS: rule consequent – Examples of classification rules: • (Blood Type=Warm) (Lay Eggs=Yes) Birds • (Taxable Income < 50K) (Refund=Yes) Evade=No Rule-based Classifier (Example) Name human python salmon whale frog komodo bat pigeon cat leopard shark turtle penguin porcupine eel salamander gila monster platypus owl dolphin eagle Blood Type warm cold cold warm cold cold warm warm warm cold cold warm warm cold cold cold warm warm warm warm Give Birth yes no no yes no no yes no yes yes no no yes no no no no no yes no Can Fly no no no no no no yes yes no no no no no no no no no yes no yes Live in Water no no yes yes sometimes no no no no yes sometimes sometimes no yes sometimes no no no yes no Class mammals reptiles fishes mammals amphibians reptiles mammals birds mammals fishes reptiles birds mammals fishes amphibians reptiles mammals birds mammals birds R1: (Give Birth = no) (Can Fly = yes) Birds R2: (Give Birth = no) (Live in Water = yes) Fishes R3: (Give Birth = yes) (Blood Type = warm) Mammals R4: (Give Birth = no) (Can Fly = no) Reptiles R5: (Live in Water = sometimes) Amphibians Rule Extraction from a Decision Tree Rules are easier to understand than large trees One rule is created for each path from the root to a leaf Each attribute-value pair along a path forms a conjunction: the leaf holds the class prediction Rules are mutually exclusive and exhaustive • Example: Rule extraction from our buys_computer decision-tree age? <=30 student? no no IF age = young AND student = no THEN buys_computer = no IF age = young AND student = yes THEN buys_computer = yes IF age = mid-age 31..40 yes yes yes >40 credit rating? excellent fair yes THEN buys_computer = yes IF age = old AND credit_rating = excellent THEN buys_computer = yes IF age = young AND credit_rating = fair June 28, 2016 THEN buys_computer = no Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 8 Application of Rule-Based Classifier • A rule r covers an instance x if the attributes of the instance satisfy the condition of the rule R1: (Give Birth = no) (Can Fly = yes) Birds R2: (Give Birth = no) (Live in Water = yes) Fishes R3: (Give Birth = yes) (Blood Type = warm) Mammals R4: (Give Birth = no) (Can Fly = no) Reptiles R5: (Live in Water = sometimes) Amphibians Name hawk grizzly bear Blood Type warm warm Give Birth Can Fly Live in Water Class no yes yes no no no ? ? The rule R1 covers a hawk => Bird The rule R3 covers the grizzly bear => Mammal How does Rule-based Classifier Work? R1: (Give Birth = no) (Can Fly = yes) Birds R2: (Give Birth = no) (Live in Water = yes) Fishes R3: (Give Birth = yes) (Blood Type = warm) Mammals R4: (Give Birth = no) (Can Fly = no) Reptiles R5: (Live in Water = sometimes) Amphibians Name lemur turtle dogfish shark Blood Type warm cold cold Give Birth Can Fly Live in Water Class yes no yes no no no no sometimes yes ? ? ? A lemur triggers rule R3, so it is classified as a mammal A turtle triggers both R4 and R5 A dogfish shark triggers none of the rules Rule Coverage and Accuracy • Coverage of a rule: – Fraction of records that satisfy the antecedent of a rule • Accuracy of a rule: – Fraction of records that satisfy both the antecedent and consequent of a rule Tid Refund Marital Status Taxable Income Class 1 Yes Single 125K No 2 No Married 100K No 3 No Single 70K No 4 Yes Married 120K No 5 No Divorced 95K Yes 6 No Married No 7 Yes Divorced 220K 8 No Single 85K Yes 9 No Married 75K No 10 No Single 90K Yes 10 (Status=Single) No Coverage = 40%, Accuracy = 50% 60K No Characteristics of Rule-Based Classifier • Mutually exclusive rules – Classifier contains mutually exclusive rules if the rules are independent of each other – Every record is covered by at most one rule • Exhaustive rules – Classifier has exhaustive coverage if it accounts for every possible combination of attribute values – Each record is covered by at least one rule From Decision Trees To Rules Classification Rules Refund Yes No NO Marita l Status {Single, Divorced} {Married} NO Taxable Income < 80K NO (Refund=Yes) ==> No (Refund=No, Marital Status={Single,Divorced}, Taxable Income<80K) ==> No (Refund=No, Marital Status={Single,Divorced}, Taxable Income>80K) ==> Yes (Refund=No, Marital Status={Married}) ==> No > 80K YES Rules are mutually exclusive and exhaustive Rule set contains as much information as the tree Rules Can Be Simplified Refund Yes No NO Marita l Status {Single, Divorced} {Married} NO Taxable Income < 80K NO > 80K YES Tid Refund Marital Status Taxable Income Cheat 1 Yes Single 125K No 2 No Married 100K No 3 No Single 70K No 4 Yes Married 120K No 5 No Divorced 95K 6 No Married 7 Yes Divorced 220K No 8 No Single 85K Yes 9 No Married 75K No 10 No Single 90K Yes 60K 10 Initial Rule: (Refund=No) (Status=Married) No Simplified Rule: (Status=Married) No Yes No Effect of Rule Simplification • Rules are no longer mutually exclusive – A record may trigger more than one rule – Solution? • Ordered rule set • Unordered rule set – use voting schemes • Rules are no longer exhaustive – A record may not trigger any rules – Solution? • Use a default class Ordered Rule Set • Rules are rank ordered according to their priority – An ordered rule set is known as a decision list • When a test record is presented to the classifier – It is assigned to the class label of the highest ranked rule it has triggered – If none of the rules fired, it is assigned to the default class R1: (Give Birth = no) (Can Fly = yes) Birds R2: (Give Birth = no) (Live in Water = yes) Fishes R3: (Give Birth = yes) (Blood Type = warm) Mammals R4: (Give Birth = no) (Can Fly = no) Reptiles R5: (Live in Water = sometimes) Amphibians Name turtle Blood Type cold Give Birth Can Fly Live in Water Class no no sometimes ? Rule Ordering Schemes • Rule-based ordering – Individual rules are ranked based on their quality • Class-based ordering – Rules that belong to the same class appear together Rule-based Ordering Class-based Ordering (Refund=Yes) ==> No (Refund=Yes) ==> No (Refund=No, Marital Status={Single,Divorced}, Taxable Income<80K) ==> No (Refund=No, Marital Status={Single,Divorced}, Taxable Income<80K) ==> No (Refund=No, Marital Status={Single,Divorced}, Taxable Income>80K) ==> Yes (Refund=No, Marital Status={Married}) ==> No (Refund=No, Marital Status={Married}) ==> No (Refund=No, Marital Status={Single,Divorced}, Taxable Income>80K) ==> Yes Building Classification Rules • Direct Method: • Extract rules directly from data • e.g.: RIPPER, CN2, Holte’s 1R • Indirect Method: • Extract rules from other classification models (e.g. decision trees, neural networks, etc). • e.g: C4.5rules Rule Induction: Sequential Covering Method • Sequential covering algorithm: Extracts rules directly from training data • Typical sequential covering algorithms: FOIL, AQ, CN2, RIPPER • Rules are learned sequentially, each for a given class Ci will cover many tuples of Ci but none (or few) of the tuples of other classes • Steps: – Rules are learned one at a time – Each time a rule is learned, the tuples covered by the rules are removed – The process repeats on the remaining tuples unless termination condition, e.g., when no more training examples or when the quality of a rule returned is below a user-specified threshold • Comp. w. decision-tree induction: learning a set of rules simultaneously June 28, 2016 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 19 Sequential Covering Algorithm while (enough target tuples left) generate a rule remove positive target tuples satisfying this rule Examples covered by Rule 2 Examples covered by Rule 1 Examples covered by Rule 3 Positive examples June 28, 2016 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 20 How to Learn-One-Rule? • Star with the most general rule possible: condition = empty • Adding new attributes by adopting a greedy depth-first strategy – Picks the one that most improves the rule quality • Rule-Quality measures: consider both coverage and accuracy – Foil-gain (in FOIL & RIPPER): assesses info_gain by extending condition FOIL _ Gain pos '(log 2 pos ' pos log 2 ) pos ' neg ' pos neg It favors rules that have high accuracy and cover many positive tuples • Rule pruning based on an independent set of test tuples FOIL _ Prune( R) pos neg pos neg Pos/neg are # of positive/negative tuples covered by R. If FOIL_Prune is higher for the pruned version of R, prune R June 28, 2016 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 21 Rule Generation • To generate a rule while(true) find the best predicate p if foil-gain(p) > threshold then add p to current rule else break A3=1&&A1=2 A3=1&&A1=2 &&A8=5 A3=1 Positive examples June 28, 2016 Negative examples Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 22 Aspects of Sequential Covering • Rule Growing • Instance Elimination • Rule Evaluation • Stopping Criterion • Rule Pruning Rule Growing • Two common strategies {} Yes: 3 No: 4 Refund=No, Status=Single, Income=85K (Class=Yes) Refund= No Status = Single Status = Divorced Status = Married Yes: 3 No: 4 Yes: 2 No: 1 Yes: 1 No: 0 Yes: 0 No: 3 (a) General-to-specific ... Income > 80K Yes: 3 No: 1 Refund=No, Status=Single, Income=90K (Class=Yes) Refund=No, Status = Single (Class = Yes) (b) Specific-to-general Rule Growing (Examples) • • CN2 Algorithm: – Start from an empty conjunct: {} – Add conjuncts that minimizes the entropy measure: {A}, {A,B}, … – Determine the rule consequent by taking majority class of instances covered by the rule RIPPER Algorithm: – Start from an empty rule: {} => class – Add conjuncts that maximizes FOIL’s information gain measure: • R0: {} => class (initial rule) • R1: {A} => class (rule after adding conjunct) • Gain(R0, R1) = t [ log (p1/(p1+n1)) – log (p0/(p0 + n0)) ] • where t: number of positive instances covered by both R0 and R1 p0: number of positive instances covered by R0 n0: number of negative instances covered by R0 p1: number of positive instances covered by R1 n1: number of negative instances covered by R1 Rule Evaluation • Metrics: – Accuracy – Laplace – M-estimate nc n nc 1 nk nc kp nk n : Number of instances covered by rule nc : Number of instances covered by rule k : Number of classes p : Prior probability Stopping Criterion and Rule Pruning • Stopping criterion – Compute the gain – If gain is not significant, discard the new rule • Rule Pruning – Similar to post-pruning of decision trees – Reduced Error Pruning: • Remove one of the conjuncts in the rule • Compare error rate on validation set before and after pruning • If error improves, prune the conjunct Summary of Direct Method • Grow a single rule • Remove Instances from rule • Prune the rule (if necessary) • Add rule to Current Rule Set • Repeat Direct Method: RIPPER • For 2-class problem, choose one of the classes as positive class, and the other as negative class – Learn rules for positive class – Negative class will be default class • For multi-class problem – Order the classes according to increasing class prevalence (fraction of instances that belong to a particular class) – Learn the rule set for smallest class first, treat the rest as negative class – Repeat with next smallest class as positive class Direct Method: RIPPER • Growing a rule: – Start from empty rule – Add conjuncts as long as they improve FOIL’s information gain – Stop when rule no longer covers negative examples – Prune the rule immediately using incremental reduced error pruning – Measure for pruning: v = (p-n)/(p+n) • p: number of positive examples covered by the rule in the validation set • n: number of negative examples covered by the rule in the validation set – Pruning method: delete any final sequence of conditions that maximizes v Direct Method: RIPPER • Building a Rule Set: – Use sequential covering algorithm • Finds the best rule that covers the current set of positive examples • Eliminate both positive and negative examples covered by the rule – Each time a rule is added to the rule set, compute the new description length • stop adding new rules when the new description length is d bits longer than the smallest description length obtained so far Direct Method: RIPPER • Optimize the rule set: – For each rule r in the rule set R • Consider 2 alternative rules: – Replacement rule (r*): grow new rule from scratch – Revised rule(r’): add conjuncts to extend the rule r • Compare the rule set for r against the rule set for r* and r’ • Choose rule set that minimizes MDL principle – Repeat rule generation and rule optimization for the remaining positive examples Indirect Methods P No Yes Q No - Rule Set R Yes No Yes + + Q No - Yes + r1: r2: r3: r4: r5: (P=No,Q=No) ==> (P=No,Q=Yes) ==> + (P=Yes,R=No) ==> + (P=Yes,R=Yes,Q=No) ==> (P=Yes,R=Yes,Q=Yes) ==> + Indirect Method: C4.5rules • Extract rules from an unpruned decision tree • For each rule, r: A y, – consider an alternative rule r’: A’ y where A’ is obtained by removing one of the conjuncts in A – Compare the pessimistic error rate for r against all r’s – Prune if one of the r’s has lower pessimistic error rate – Repeat until we can no longer improve generalization error Indirect Method: C4.5rules • Instead of ordering the rules, order subsets of rules (class ordering) – Each subset is a collection of rules with the same rule consequent (class) – Compute description length of each subset • Description length = L(error) + g L(model) • g is a parameter that takes into account the presence of redundant attributes in a rule set (default value = 0.5) Example Name human python salmon whale frog komodo bat pigeon cat leopard shark turtle penguin porcupine eel salamander gila monster platypus owl dolphin eagle Give Birth yes no no yes no no yes no yes yes no no yes no no no no no yes no Lay Eggs no yes yes no yes yes no yes no no yes yes no yes yes yes yes yes no yes Can Fly no no no no no no yes yes no no no no no no no no no yes no yes Live in Water Have Legs no no yes yes sometimes no no no no yes sometimes sometimes no yes sometimes no no no yes no yes no no no yes yes yes yes yes no yes yes yes no yes yes yes yes no yes Class mammals reptiles fishes mammals amphibians reptiles mammals birds mammals fishes reptiles birds mammals fishes amphibians reptiles mammals birds mammals birds C4.5 versus C4.5rules versus RIPPER C4.5rules: Give Birth? (Give Birth=No, Can Fly=Yes) Birds (Give Birth=No, Live in Water=Yes) Fishes No Yes (Give Birth=Yes) Mammals (Give Birth=No, Can Fly=No, Live in Water=No) Reptiles Live In Water? Mammals Yes ( ) Amphibians RIPPER: No (Live in Water=Yes) Fishes (Have Legs=No) Reptiles Sometimes Fishes (Give Birth=No, Can Fly=No, Live In Water=No) Reptiles Can Fly? Amphibians Yes Birds (Can Fly=Yes,Give Birth=No) Birds No Reptiles () Mammals C4.5 versus C4.5rules versus RIPPER C4.5 and C4.5rules: PREDICTED CLASS Amphibians Fishes Reptiles Birds ACTUAL Amphibians 2 0 0 CLASS Fishes 0 2 0 Reptiles 1 0 3 Birds 1 0 0 Mammals 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 0 Mammals 0 1 0 0 6 0 0 0 2 0 Mammals 2 0 1 1 4 RIPPER: PREDICTED CLASS Amphibians Fishes Reptiles Birds ACTUAL Amphibians 0 0 0 CLASS Fishes 0 3 0 Reptiles 0 0 3 Birds 0 0 1 Mammals 0 2 1 Advantages of Rule-Based Classifiers • • • • • As highly expressive as decision trees Easy to interpret Easy to generate Can classify new instances rapidly Performance comparable to decision trees Classification by Backpropagation • Backpropagation: A neural network learning algorithm • Started by psychologists and neurobiologists to develop and test computational analogues of neurons • A neural network: A set of connected input/output units where each connection has a weight associated with it • During the learning phase, the network learns by adjusting the weights so as to be able to predict the correct class label of the input tuples • Also referred to as connectionist learning due to the connections between units June 28, 2016 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 40 Classification by Backpropagation • Backpropagation: A neural network learning algorithm • Started by psychologists and neurobiologists to develop and test computational analogues of neurons • A neural network: A set of connected input/output units where each connection has a weight associated with it • During the learning phase, the network learns by adjusting the weights so as to be able to predict the correct class label of the input tuples • Also referred to as connectionist learning due to the connections between units June 28, 2016 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 41 Neural Network as a Classifier • • Weakness – Long training time – Require a number of parameters typically best determined empirically, e.g., the network topology or “structure.” – Poor interpretability: Difficult to interpret the symbolic meaning behind the learned weights and of “hidden units” in the network Strength – High tolerance to noisy data – Ability to classify untrained patterns – Well-suited for continuous-valued inputs and outputs – Successful on a wide array of real-world data – Algorithms are inherently parallel – Techniques have recently been developed for the extraction of rules from trained neural networks June 28, 2016 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 42 A Neuron (= a perceptron) - mk x0 w0 x1 w1 xn f output y For Example wn n y sign( wi xi m k ) i 0 Input weight vector x vector w • weighted sum Activation function The n-dimensional input vector x is mapped into variable y by means of the scalar product and a nonlinear function mapping June 28, 2016 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 43 A Multi-Layer Feed-Forward Neural Network Output vector w(jk 1) w(jk ) ( yi yˆi( k ) ) xij Output layer Hidden layer wij Input layer Input vector: X June 28, 2016 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 44 How A Multi-Layer Neural Network Works? • The inputs to the network correspond to the attributes measured for each training tuple • Inputs are fed simultaneously into the units making up the input layer • They are then weighted and fed simultaneously to a hidden layer • The number of hidden layers is arbitrary, although usually only one • The weighted outputs of the last hidden layer are input to units making up the output layer, which emits the network's prediction • The network is feed-forward in that none of the weights cycles back to an input unit or to an output unit of a previous layer • From a statistical point of view, networks perform nonlinear regression: Given enough hidden units and enough training samples, they can closely approximate any function June 28, 2016 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 45 Defining a Network Topology • First decide the network topology: # of units in the input layer, # of hidden layers (if > 1), # of units in each hidden layer, and # of units in the output layer • Normalizing the input values for each attribute measured in the training tuples to [0.0—1.0] • One input unit per domain value, each initialized to 0 • Output, if for classification and more than two classes, one output unit per class is used • Once a network has been trained and its accuracy is unacceptable, repeat the training process with a different network topology or a different set of initial weights June 28, 2016 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 46 Backpropagation • Iteratively process a set of training tuples & compare the network's prediction with the actual known target value • For each training tuple, the weights are modified to minimize the mean squared error between the network's prediction and the actual target value • Modifications are made in the “backwards” direction: from the output layer, through each hidden layer down to the first hidden layer, hence “backpropagation” • Steps – Initialize weights (to small random #s) and biases in the network – Propagate the inputs forward (by applying activation function) – Backpropagate the error (by updating weights and biases) – Terminating condition (when error is very small, etc.) June 28, 2016 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 47 Lazy vs. Eager Learning • • • Lazy vs. eager learning – Lazy learning (e.g., instance-based learning): Simply stores training data (or only minor processing) and waits until it is given a test tuple – Eager learning (the above discussed methods): Given a set of training set, constructs a classification model before receiving new (e.g., test) data to classify Lazy: less time in training but more time in predicting Accuracy – Lazy method effectively uses a richer hypothesis space since it uses many local linear functions to form its implicit global approximation to the target function – Eager: must commit to a single hypothesis that covers the entire instance space June 28, 2016 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 48 Lazy Learner: Instance-Based Methods • • Instance-based learning: – Store training examples and delay the processing (“lazy evaluation”) until a new instance must be classified Typical approaches – k-nearest neighbor approach • Instances represented as points in a Euclidean space. – Locally weighted regression • Constructs local approximation – Case-based reasoning • Uses symbolic representations and knowledge-based inference June 28, 2016 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 49 Nearest Neighbor Classifiers • Basic idea: – If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, then it’s probably a duck Compute Distance Training Records Choose k of the “nearest” records Test Record Nearest-Neighbor Classifiers Unknown record Requires three things – The set of stored records – Distance Metric to compute distance between records – The value of k, the number of nearest neighbors to retrieve To classify an unknown record: – Compute distance to other training records – Identify k nearest neighbors – Use class labels of nearest neighbors to determine the class label of unknown record (e.g., by taking majority vote) Definition of Nearest Neighbor X (a) 1-nearest neighbor X X (b) 2-nearest neighbor (c) 3-nearest neighbor K-nearest neighbors of a record x are data points that have the k smallest distance to x The k-Nearest Neighbor Algorithm • All instances correspond to points in the n-D space • The nearest neighbor are defined in terms of Euclidean distance, dist(X1, X2) • Target function could be discrete- or real- valued • For discrete-valued, k-NN returns the most common value among the k training examples nearest to xq • Vonoroi diagram: the decision surface induced by 1-NN for a typical set of training examples . _ _ + _ _ June 28, 2016 _ . + xq + _ + . . . Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques . 53 Nearest Neighbor Classification • Compute distance between two points: – Euclidean distance d ( p, q ) ( pi i q ) 2 i • Determine the class from nearest neighbor list – take the majority vote of class labels among the k-nearest neighbors – Weigh the vote according to distance • weight factor, w = 1/d2 Nearest Neighbor Classification… • Choosing the value of k: – If k is too small, sensitive to noise points – If k is too large, neighborhood may include points from other classes X Nearest Neighbor Classification… • Scaling issues – Attributes may have to be scaled to prevent distance measures from being dominated by one of the attributes – Example: • height of a person may vary from 1.5m to 1.8m • weight of a person may vary from 90lb to 300lb • income of a person may vary from $10K to $1M Nearest neighbor Classification… • k-NN classifiers are lazy learners – It does not build models explicitly – Unlike eager learners such as decision tree induction and rulebased systems – Classifying unknown records are relatively expensive Example: PEBLS • PEBLS: Parallel Examplar-Based Learning System (Cost & Salzberg) – Works with both continuous and nominal features • For nominal features, distance between two nominal values is computed using modified value difference metric (MVDM) – Each record is assigned a weight factor – Number of nearest neighbor, k = 1 Example: PEBLS Tid Refund Marital Status Taxable Income Cheat 1 Yes Single 125K No d(Single,Married) 2 No Married 100K No = | 2/4 – 0/4 | + | 2/4 – 4/4 | = 1 3 No Single 70K No d(Single,Divorced) 4 Yes Married 120K No 5 No Divorced 95K Yes 6 No Married No d(Married,Divorced) 7 Yes Divorced 220K No = | 0/4 – 1/2 | + | 4/4 – 1/2 | = 1 8 No Single 85K Yes d(Refund=Yes,Refund=No) 9 No Married 75K No = | 0/3 – 3/7 | + | 3/3 – 4/7 | = 6/7 10 No Single 90K Yes 60K Distance between nominal attribute values: = | 2/4 – 1/2 | + | 2/4 – 1/2 | = 0 10 Marital Status Class Single Married Class Yes No Yes 0 3 No 3 4 Divorced Yes 2 0 1 No 2 4 1 Refund d (V1 ,V2 ) i n1i n2i n1 n2 Example: PEBLS Tid Refund Marital Status Taxable Income Cheat X Yes Single 125K No Y No Married 100K No 10 Distance between record X and record Y: d ( X , Y ) wX wY d ( X i , Yi ) 2 i 1 where: Number of times X is used for prediction wX Number of times X predicts correctly wX 1 if X makes accurate prediction most of the time wX > 1 if X is not reliable for making predictions Dilanjutkan ke pert. 10 Classification and Prediction (cont.) Bina Nusantara