US-Japan Technology Management Seminar,Stanford University (Nov.18,1999)
Transformation of Semiconductor R&D
Dr. Katsuhiro Shimohigashi
General Manager
Semiconductor Technology Development Division
Semiconductor & Integrated Circuits
Hitachi,Ltd.
K.Shimohigashi,Hitachi Ltd.
US-Japan Technology Management Seminar,Stanford University (Nov.18,1999)
OUTLINE
1. Semiconductor Industry－History , Technology ,
and Market
2. Industry Vicissitude－Historical Perspective of
Semiconductor Industry
3. Transformation of Semiconductor Industry
4. Transformation of Semiconductor R&D
5. A Measure of R&D Effectiveness
6. R&D History at Hitachi CRL
K.Shimohigashi,Hitachi Ltd.
US-Japan Technology Management Seminar,Stanford University (Nov.18,1999)
OUTLINE
1. Semiconductor Industry－History , Technology ,
and Market
2. Industry Vicissitude－Historical Perspective of
Semiconductor Industry
3. Transformation of Semiconductor Industry
4. Transformation of Semiconductor R&D
5. A Measure of R&D Effectiveness
6. R&D History at Hitachi CRL
K.Shimohigashi,Hitachi Ltd.
US-Japan Technology Management Seminar,Stanford University (Nov.18,1999)
The History
CCC Market
Convergence
Communication
Computer
Consumer
PDAs
Cordless Phones
Calculators
Market Size
Notebook PCs
Personal PCs
Transistor TVs
ULSIS
Transistor radios
Si discretes
LSIS
ICS
VLSIS
Ge discretes
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
K.Shimohigashi,Hitachi Ltd.
US-Japan Technology Management Seminar,Stanford University (Nov.18,1999)
The Market
CAGR
B$/Year
'70–'80
18%
'80–'90
14%
100
'90–'00
12%
'94
'90 100B$
50B$
'79
10B$
PDA
10
Notebook
PC
'98
126B$
'99
141B$
2000
162B$
CarNavigation
Cordless
Phone
PC
TV
1970
Calculator
1980
1990
2000
K.Shimohigashi,Hitachi Ltd.
US-Japan Technology Management Seminar,Stanford University (Nov.18,1999)
The Technology
1G
1G
Density
(Bit)
10
256M
Geometry
(µ m)
64M
Geometry
16M
1M
Density
1M
4M
CD
(70Min. HiFi
recording)
1.0
256K
Dictionary
64K
16K
4K
1K
1K
0.1
Newspaper 4pages
Letter(A4) 1page
1970
1980
1990
2000
K.Shimohigashi,Hitachi Ltd.
US-Japan Technology Management Seminar,Stanford University (Nov.18,1999)
OUTLINE
1. Semiconductor Industry－History , Technology ,
and Market
2. Industry Vicissitude－Historical Perspective of
Semiconductor Industry
3. Transformation of Semiconductor Industry
4. Transformation of Semiconductor R&D
5. A Measure of R&D Effectiveness
6. R&D History at Hitachi CRL
K.Shimohigashi,Hitachi Ltd.
US-Japan Technology Management Seminar,Stanford University (Nov.18,1999)
STEEL PRODUCTION (Mt/Year)
Semiconductor Market Compared
to Steel Production
140
SEMICONDUCTOR
120
100
U.S.
80
60
CHINA
40
JAPAN
20
KOREA
0
1940
〔60〕
1945
1950
〔70〕
1955
1960
〔80〕
1965
1970
〔90〕
1975
1980
1985
〔00〕
K.Shimohigashi,Hitachi Ltd.
US-Japan Technology Management Seminar,Stanford University (Nov.18,1999)
OUTLINE
1. Semiconductor Industry－History , Technology ,
and Market
2. Industry Vicissitude－Historical Perspective of
Semiconductor Industry
3. Transformation of Semiconductor Industry
4. Transformation of Semiconductor R&D
5. A Measure of R&D Effectiveness
6. R&D History at Hitachi CRL
K.Shimohigashi,Hitachi Ltd.
US-Japan Technology Management Seminar,Stanford University (Nov.18,1999)
Semiconductor Industry Trend
‘70
‘80
40B$
10B$
Market
Infra-Structure
‘90
‘00
150B$
Develop
Grow
Mega Competition
Scarce
Develop
Grow
Mainframe
PC
Communication
Digital Consumer
106～105
104～103
104～103
IDM
IDM
IDM,Fabless,Foundry
Oligopoly
Mega Competition
(Equipment)
Application
ASP($)
Business Style
R&D
CRL
CRL
Government-University-Industry
Partnership
？
To be discussed today!
K.Shimohigashi,Hitachi Ltd.
US-Japan Technology Management Seminar,Stanford University (Nov.18,1999)
Market Trend
Market Characteristics
Effects on R&D
1. Disappearance of Performance
Oriented Segments
(Mainframe Computer,…)
Density → Price per Bit
2. Downsizing
(PC,HPA,…)
System-On-Chip
Low Energy Architecture
3. Multimedia Processing
(Image,Voice)
CPU → DSP
High Bandwidth
(SDRAM,R-DRAM)
K.Shimohigashi,Hitachi Ltd.
US-Japan Technology Management Seminar,Stanford University (Nov.18,1999)
Business Trend
Business Characteristics
Effects on R&D
1. Huge Investment
Manufacturing System
becomes Focus of study
2. Decrease of ROI
Alliance,Consortium
3. Silicon Cycle
Product Portfolio
→Segment Specialization
(System Solution)
4. New Market Entry
by Specialization
Synergistic Technology
as a new leverage
K.Shimohigashi,Hitachi Ltd.
US-Japan Technology Management Seminar,Stanford University (Nov.18,1999)
Technology-Process and Device
Technology R&D Direction
1. Commoditization of Process Technology
● Precompetitive Domain
● Consortium
● Technology for Differenciation
● New Materials
● Phase-Shift,OPC
2. Uncertainty of Post
Optical Lithography
Semiconductor -Society-wide
Cooperation for NGL
3. Low Cost Manufacturing
Large Diameter Wafer
Processing
K.Shimohigashi,Hitachi Ltd.
US-Japan Technology Management Seminar,Stanford University (Nov.18,1999)
Technology-Continued
4. Technology Maturity
●Acceleration of Miniaturization
●Multi-Value Storage and Logic
●Module Level Integration
Contributing factors for 4－times DRAM density increase in the ‘80s.
• Miniaturization
• Memory Cell Improvement
• Circuit Improvement
• Chip Size Increase
×
×
×
×
2.2
1.2
1.1
1.4
5. Nanometer Processing
(Oxide Thickness＜3nm,Now!)
Atomic Layer Manipulation
Selective Growth
(Etching - free Process)
6. War with Invisible Defects
Molecular / Atomic Level Physics
and Analysis
7. Wiring Material Limit (Cu)
Optoelectronics
K.Shimohigashi,Hitachi Ltd.
US-Japan Technology Management Seminar,Stanford University (Nov.18,1999)
OUTLINE
1. Semiconductor Industry－History , Technology ,
and Market
2. Industry Vicissitude－Historical Perspective of
Semiconductor Industry
3. Transformation of Semiconductor Industry
4. Transformation of Semiconductor R&D
5. A Measure of R&D Effectiveness
6. R&D History at Hitachi CRL
K.Shimohigashi,Hitachi Ltd.
US-Japan Technology Management Seminar,Stanford University (Nov.18,1999)
R&D-Past,Present,and Future
Past:
Research(R), Development(D), and
Production(P) were thought to be
different, and separately conducted.
Present: Research Centers has been broken
apart, and the distinction between D
and P has been vanishing.
Future: How should we organize these three
functions?
K.Shimohigashi,Hitachi Ltd.
US-Japan Technology Management Seminar,Stanford University (Nov.18,1999)
Transformation of R&D,
and Production Relationship
PAST
3
R
D
R?
P
D Merging
P
2
1
PRESENT
R: Research,D: Development,P: Production
K.Shimohigashi,Hitachi Ltd.
US-Japan Technology Management Seminar,Stanford University (Nov.18,1999)
Technology Transfer Methodology
In Hitachi
R
D
P
OLD
Material
Unit Process
Early Integration
R
Integration
D
Productization
P
Issues
• Weakened Long-Range Research
• Development Cost Reduction
• Methodology for Managing
Large Cross Functional Team
NEW
Material
New Unit Process
Integration & Productization
Cross Functional Team
K.Shimohigashi,Hitachi Ltd.
US-Japan Technology Management Seminar,Stanford University (Nov.18,1999)
Diversification of R&D (Internal & External)
External
Long Range
Universities
Government
Infrastructure
SEMATECH/
SELETE
Pre－Competitive
R&D
Standardization
Competitive
JEDEC/Defacto
Alliance
Joint
Development
Core Competence
Internal
K.Shimohigashi,Hitachi Ltd.
US-Japan Technology Management Seminar,Stanford University (Nov.18,1999)
OUTLINE
1. Semiconductor Industry－History , Technology ,
and Market
2. Industry Vicissitude－Historical Perspective of
Semiconductor Industry
3. Transformation of Semiconductor Industry
4. Transformation of Semiconductor R&D
5. A Measure of R&D Effectiveness
6. R&D History at Hitachi CRL
K.Shimohigashi,Hitachi Ltd.
US-Japan Technology Management Seminar,Stanford University (Nov.18,1999)
My Patent Productivity
30's
20's
40's
NUMBER OF PATENTS
40
TOTAL: 286
20
0
72
75
78
81
84
87
90
93
K.Shimohigashi,Hitachi Ltd.
96
YEAR
US-Japan Technology Management Seminar,Stanford University (Nov.18,1999)
Think About!
WHAT
was
Hit Ratio?
K.Shimohigashi,Hitachi Ltd.
US-Japan Technology Management Seminar,Stanford University (Nov.18,1999)
The Answer was
7% !
K.Shimohigashi,Hitachi Ltd.
US-Japan Technology Management Seminar,Stanford University (Nov.18,1999)
Number of Patents Contributed
to Business
The President Special Patent Award
:3
The President Patent Award
:7
The Strategic Patent Award-Gold
:5
The Strategic Patent Award-Silver
:4
The Strategic Patent Award-Copper
:1
Total Useful Patents
: 20
K.Shimohigashi,Hitachi Ltd.
US-Japan Technology Management Seminar,Stanford University (Nov.18,1999)
Discussion Session!
What
is
Your Impression?
K.Shimohigashi,Hitachi Ltd.
US-Japan Technology Management Seminar,Stanford University (Nov.18,1999)
OUTLINE
1. Semiconductor Industry－History , Technology ,
and Market
2. Industry Vicissitude－Historical Perspective of
Semiconductor Industry
3. Transformation of Semiconductor Industry
4. Transformation of Semiconductor R&D
5. A Measure of R&D Effectiveness
6. R&D History at Hitachi CRL
K.Shimohigashi,Hitachi Ltd.
US-Japan Technology Management Seminar,Stanford University (Nov.18,1999)
1998 Sales Breakdown
Financial Year ending 31 March 1999, USD1=JPY121
Consolidated
(HITACHI Group)
Information &
Electronics
Services
31%
22%
14%
Non-Consolidated
(HITACHI, Ltd)
Transportation
Systems
Industrial
Systems
8%
\7,977 billion
(US$65.9 billion)
7%
\3,781 billion
20% (US$31.2 billion) 55%
9%
10%
24%
Materials
Power & Industrial
Systems
Consumer
Products
Consumer
Products
Power Systems
Information &
Electronics
K.Shimohigashi,Hitachi Ltd.
US-Japan Technology Management Seminar,Stanford University (Nov.18,1999)
Organization of Hitachi,Ltd. (as of April 1999)
Board of Directors
• Research & Development Group
Chairman
• Intellectual Property Group
President
Business Groups
• Power & Industrial Systems
• Industrial Components & Equipment
• Elevators & Escalators
• Information & Telecomm. Systems
• Digital Media
• Consumer Products
• Displays
• Semiconductor & ICs
• Automotive Products
• Instruments
• Corporate Staff
• Corporate Export
Regulation Divn.
• Business Development Division
• Business Staff
K.Shimohigashi,Hitachi Ltd.
US-Japan Technology Management Seminar,Stanford University (Nov.18,1999)
Foundation
 Establishment: April 1942
Creating new technologies for the coming
 Mission:
10 to 20 years, as well as pursuing
development work for today’s business.
BABA Kumeo
First General
Manager
HCRL in 1942
ODAIRA Namihei
Founder
of Hitachi, Ltd.
K.Shimohigashi,Hitachi Ltd.
US-Japan Technology Management Seminar,Stanford University (Nov.18,1999)
HCRL History
Period
I
1940‘s
II
1950‘s
Feature/Focus
Construction
during WWII
Learning
III
1960‘s
Expansion
IV
1970‘s
Quantity to
Quality
Topics
‘42
Establishment of HCRL
‘54
Start of reactor research
‘56
Start of transistor research prototype
‘58
Presentation of the electron microscope
(grand prize) and analog computer (gold
award) at the International Exhibition in
Brussels
‘66
Development of Japan’s first mainframe
computer, HITAC 5020
Development of world’s largest
superconducting magnet
‘69
‘78
‘80
Development of the world’s first solid-state
image-pickup device
Development of the 64 kbit DRAM
K.Shimohigashi,Hitachi Ltd.
US-Japan Technology Management Seminar,Stanford University (Nov.18,1999)
HCRL History
Period
V
1980‘s
Feature/Focus
Creating
original
concepts
& enhancing
core
technologies
‘82
‘83
‘86
‘91
‘92
VI
1990‘s
Becoming a
leader in
‘93
technology for
new business ‘95
‘98
Topics
Development of electron holography technology
Development of the supercomputer
Development of laser diodes in
optical communication
Proposal of high resolution TV systems
(IDTV, EDTV)
Development of the superconducting transistor
Development of the 2Gb/in2 magnetic disk
Development of the Single-Chip RISC
Processor (SH Microprocessor)
Development of high-speed DNA analysis
& functional MRI technologies
Development of the 1 Gbit DRAM &
Video Authoring System
Operation of 128Mb Single-Electron Memory
at Room Temperature
K.Shimohigashi,Hitachi Ltd.